The red missiles came in low over the calm waters between China and
Taiwan, slicing through the cold November air at a frantic pace, turning
each nose-cone a cherry red. Taiwanese radar operators frantically
scrambled to warn their nation of the incoming danger, but they were
snuffed out by the onslaught.
Offshore, a U.S. Aegis cruiser helplessly watched on its radar as
dozens of warheads streaked across the night sky, into the tiny island
nation. The first missiles from Chinese 2nd Artillery mobile units were
aimed at critical targets inside Taiwan, landing with a combination of
deadly accurate conventional bombs and nerve gas. This first shower
lasted for only one minute -- 60 seconds of death from the sky.
The rain of Dong Feng, or "East Wind," missiles poured into the
island, spilling deadly nerve gas, cutting power and communications with
a shower of cluster bombs. The sudden attack also instantly grounded
most of the Taiwanese Air Force while killing thousands of civilians in
a silent cloud of death that drifted throughout the night.
The second rain consisted of only one drop, a single Dong Feng
missile. The single bomb fell from the night sky into downtown Taipei
unmolested, and detonated its small nuclear warhead only a few feet from
its intended target. In a single blinding flash, most of the city died
in a shower of deadly neutrons. What few who were left alive near ground
zero were then consumed by the inferno of the nuclear blast and fire.
The entire shower from the east lasts for only two minutes. However,
during those two minutes over five hundred thousand Taiwanese died and
Taipei disappeared under a shroud of radioactive death. The tiny island,
critically wounded and diplomatically isolated, falls in three days to
Beijing's
occupation force of one million soldiers.
Could this happen? Will China go to war over Taiwan? The U.S. defense
and political establishment may continue to debate the question of war
-- but the People's Liberation Army Central Military Command has already
issued orders.
"Taking into account of possible intervention by the U.S. and based
on the development strategy of our country, it is better to fight now
than (in the) future -- the earlier, the better," states official
document number 199965 from the Chinese Central Military Command.
"We will gain control of Taiwan before full deployment of the U.S.
troops," states the Chinese army report. "In this case, the only thing
the U.S. can do is fight a war with the purpose of retaliation, which
will be similar to the Gulf War against Iraq or the recent bombing of
Yugoslavia as far as its
operational objective is concerned, namely to first attack from the sky
and the sea our coastal military targets, and then attack our vital
civil facilities so as to force us to accept its terms like Iraq or
Yugoslavia."
Would China risk combat with U.S. forces over tiny Taiwan? The last
direct, full-scale combat between U.S. and Chinese soldiers occurred a
half century ago in the bloody stalemate called Korea. Warfare today is
high-tech and the U.S. has the advantage, right?
"When both sides rely mainly on missile strikes based on electronic
confrontation, we evidently enjoy a superiority in terms of the number
of short-range and middle-range missiles," answers the Chinese military
report. "It can safely be expected that once the U.S. launches an
attack, the front lines of the U.S. forces and their supporting bases
will be exposed within the range of our effective strikes. After the
first strategic strike, the U.S. forces will be faced with weaponry and
logistic problems, providing us with opportunities for major offensives
and win large battles."
"Our principle is 'willing to sustain major losses of our armed
forces to defend even just one square inch of land,'" states the Chinese
army report. "If the U.S. forces lose thousands or hundreds of men under
our powerful strikes, the anti-war sentiment within their country will
force the U.S. government to take the same path as they did in Viet
Nam."
"Even if we successfully carry out interception and control the sky,
our military and civil facilities will still incur some damages. The
damages will be more extensive if the war cannot be ended within a short
period of time and the U.S. launch the second and third strikes," the
Chinese command report continues.
Would China risk international isolation and war with U.S allies such
as Japan and Europe? U.S. forces have deployed and fought with allies
together in Iraq and Yugoslavia. Would they join the U.S. in a war
against China?
"Internationally, the many obstacles to the resolution of (the)
Taiwan issue have been put in by the United States, while Japan has a
complicated attitude towards our handling of (the) Taiwan issue, but
because of historical and geographical reasons," answers the Chinese
military report, "Japan does not have a right to comment. EU has ideas
different from those in the U.S. and strategically focuses on Europe, so
they do not have direct interests in (the) Taiwan issue. In recent
years, the relationships between EU and our country have been developing
smoothly, and therefore it is very unlikely that EU will fight a
full-scale war with us simply because of the United States."
What about nuclear weapons? Would China risk a nuclear war over
Taiwan with a far better armed America?
"So far we have built up the capability for the second and third
nuclear strikes and fairly confident in fighting a nuclear war," answers
the Chinese military report. "Unlike Iraq and Yugoslavia, China is not
only a big country, but also possesses a nuclear arsenal that has long
been incorporated into state
warfare systems and played a real role in our national defense. The PCC
has decided to pass through formal channels this message to the top
leaders of the U.S."
Is China really planning to go to war?
"Based on the long-term interests and current strength of our country
and our armed forces, the question that we have to consider is not
Taiwan's capability to defend itself or what kind of war will be fought
if the U.S. intervenes, but our tactics and timing," noted the Central
Military Command.
The quoted Central Military Command document was written in August
1999. In late September 1999, the Chinese military staged a series of
exercises in the southeast coastal and inland regions. The exercises
continued through the winter months and into the new century. The
exercises, involving over one million Chinese soldiers, included the
firing of Dong Feng 11 and Dong
Feng 15 missiles. The chilling note is that the war games ended with the
successful flight test of a new Dong Feng 31 ballistic missile. The Dong
Feng 31 can hurl up to three nuclear bombs
onto the West Coast of America.
Would America risk losing Washington, Oregon and California over
Taiwan?