As George W. Bush prepares to take office, worries about the economy are growing. In mid-January, 27 percent of American adults think we will have a recession within six months. Only 36 percent are confident that we’ll get to July without recession. Those are by far the worst numbers we’ve recorded at Rasmussen Research since we began asking the question in 1997.
Last January, just 11 percent expected a recession and 58 percent were confident that the nation could avoid a recession.
One of the factors driving this change is that just 30 percent of American investors now say their portfolio has increased in value over the last year. Forty-six percent say their investments have lost money in the last 12 months.
Politically, the timing of the economic slowdown means spin patrols will be working overtime during the next several months. Democrats will make the case that the economy was fine so long as Clinton was in charge. They will claim that it was the election of George W. Bush that created jitters on both Wall Street and Main Street.
Republicans, of course, will have a different perspective. The
president-elect has already made it clear that the slowdown began on Clinton’s watch and Bush’s job is to turn things around. In fact, President-elect Bush has skillfully used fears of a slowing economy to build support for his tax cut proposals. Fifty-six percent of Americans now support this plan, while only 25 percent are opposed. Most Americans agree with Bush that tax cuts are good for the economy.
However, while both parties are busily trying to blame the other, it might be useful to recognize that most Americans are far from depressed over the state of the economy. Seventy percent of working Americans rate their own jobs as good or excellent. Only 15 percent are worried about losing their job anytime soon. In fact, workers overwhelmingly believe that when they leave their current job it will be their own decision, not their boss's. They also believe that their next job will be better than their current job.
On top of that, while there are concerns about the short-term performance of the stock market, investors remain bullish about the long-term. Fifty-three percent think the Dow will be higher in a year than it is today. Only 16 percent of investors think it will be lower in a year. As for the NASDAQ, 52 percent expect it to be higher in a year while 19 percent think it will be lower.
Overall, 45 percent think it is still a good time to invest, while 34 percent disagree. Fifty percent continue to rate the economy as good or excellent; 34 percent say just fair; and only 10 percent rate the economy as poor.
So, it is true that Americans are concerned about a slowing economy.
However, it is also true that there is a fairly high degree of confidence among consumers and investors. And, while Republicans and Democrats try to blame each other for the slowdown, the general public has a different perspective. They overwhelmingly give businesses, consumers, and workers primary credit for creating economic growth.
Politicians, even presidents, are seen as far less important than the private sector in this regard.