The experts have major egg on their faces. Especially the ones who thought former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan was a shoo-in for the GOP nomination for governor of California. Three months ago, he had a 40-point lead in the polls. I'm glad I didn't place any bets based on those predictions.
Listen to some of the descriptions about what happened Tuesday: "just incredible," "an absolutely breathtaking … dramatic turnaround," "one of the greatest upsets in California politics."
It sure was. The expected winner lost big time. The long-time political pro came in a distant third. The new guy on the block took home the prize.
Bill Simon was unknown and in third place behind Riordan and Secretary of State Bill Jones, whose vigorous campaign hardly stood a chance against his two opponents, both millionaires. In California, if you don't have big money, you don't win statewide elections.
Six weeks ago, Simon was 33 points behind. But on March 5, he rolled over both opponents to beat Riordan 49 to 31 percent! And he did it despite being portrayed as a pro-life, pro-gun, pro-voucher, non-voting conservative political novice.
Despite all that, Bill Simon walked away the winner Tuesday, getting the nod as the GOP candidate for governor in what will be the longest campaign in state history. Because of the early primary, the race to November is eight-months long, considered an almost impossible challenge to campaign momentum.
It's also expected to be one of the nastiest campaigns in recent memory. Not because of Simon, but because of his Democrat opponent, the current governor, Gray Davis.
Davis already played strategy. Taking an expensive and pointed tack in the primary, Davis aimed his guns at Riordan, convinced that if Riordan lost the primary, Simon would be a cinch to beat in November.
As I always say at the end of my radio programs: "Be careful what you pray for, you might get it." Davis accomplished half of his goal. Riordan collapsed under the Simon steamroller, which certainly benefited from Davis' tactics.
But I disagree with some of that theory. Certainly, the negatives forced voters to take another look at Simon but, frankly, they liked what they saw.
In a state whiplashed because of mishandled deregulation energy contracts, staggering under a $12 billion-plus deficit, a weakening economy and confiscatory taxes and fees, suffering from lousy roads and lousy schools, voters wanted something different. They not only took another look at Simon, they listened. And surprise, surprise – he actually said something. He actually has plans for transportation, education, the budget, the economy and more. He knows the facts and figures.
I interviewed each of the candidates, separately, on my KSFO radio program. Jones was earnest and knowledgeable. Riordan just couldn't answer a question directly – at one point he slid over an issue and said, "I think that answers the question." I reminded him that no, it didn't, and asked again. Twice in five minutes, he accused me of "trying to pin him down." Actually, I just wanted an answer to my question.
Simon answered my questions with no qualifications. In favor of amnesty for illegals? "No." You really promise not to raise taxes? "Yes." Will you act immediately to get MTBE out of gasoline? "Yes."
What a concept: a man with ideas, promises of leadership and an open approach to issues. Maybe it's because he's not a professional politician. Maybe it's a result of working in the private sector and knowing what makes the economy work. Maybe he piqued the interest of voters because he projects an image of "everyman."
The real test, of course, is November. He'll have run the gantlet by then and been tested by opposition tactics. No one can say for certain Bill Simon is a shoo-in, least of all him.
But back in 1966, there was another non-politician, everyman running for California governor. He had a quiet sense of leadership about him. He had a knack for making average people feel important, as though they had value and were more than just an opportunity for a political donation or a vote. He reached the hearts of citizens and they rewarded him with their votes. He became governor, then president. His name? Ronald Reagan.
I don't know if Bill Simon is made of the same stuff, but his success this week has a sense of excitement about it. Keep an eye on the campaign. It's gonna be quite a ride!