Our government focuses on overthrowing non-democratic regimes in the Middle East. The American people focus on not getting nuked in their jammies. Our government’s focus may make that more likely, not less.
We are poised to invade Iraq and change its regime precisely because we know Saddam Hussein doesn’t have nukes now and couldn’t have them for years to come.
Perversely, we have agreed to not invade North Korea because we’re afraid Kim Jong-il may already have a few nukes. Of course, if we don’t stop him now, it is certain he will soon be producing nukes as a "cash crop," for sale to terrorists.
It has long been apparent that having nukes deters an aggressor. No nuke-state has ever been invaded. Now – as a result of our wimp-out on North Korea – it looks like no nation-state even strongly suspected of having nukes will ever be invaded, either.
However, all small Middle-East non-democratic nation-states not yet having nukes can expect to get their regimes changed.
So, as soon as we have changed the Iraqi regime for them, we will change Iran’s. Iran is a non-democratic state that doesn’t yet have nukes. After we have changed Iran’s regime for them, we’ll take on Syria. After Syria?
The warhawks attempt to justify regime change on the grounds that these non-democracies have been buying nuke makings from our former allies in the Gulf War – Russia, Germany, France, Canada and China. But the real reason these nation-states want nukes may have little to do with their being non-democracies. It may just be self-preservation.
You may wonder why oil-rich countries – such as Iran and Iraq – need nuclear power plants or research reactors.
Well, they don’t. But Islamic rulers are not dumb. They have noted the new-found respect accorded Pakistan by other nuke-states since the Pakistanis tested a half-dozen nukes back in 1998. No nation-state dares attack Israel even though Israel has never admitted to having nukes. And now the warhawks are afraid to attack Kim Jong-il even though he insists that he doesn’t have nukes.
Saddam must be kicking himself. He kept his nuke program secret. If some "defector" had told the CIA in 1990 that Saddam was that close to having nukes, would we have been hell-bent on forcibly ejecting the Iraqi invaders from Kuwait? Or would we have settled for the withdrawal negotiated by the Soviet Union?
Our former allies have sold nuclear power plants and research reactors to Iran and Iraq. And to Israel. They all swear they would never knowingly help any nation-state develop nukes. But, as the warhawks keep telling us, we can no longer trust Russia, Germany, France, Canada and China. Our former allies balk at invading Iraq or Iran just to change regimes.
The real post-Cold War danger is nukes falling into the hands of terrorists. We – and the Russians – worried a lot about the disposition of tens of thousands of Soviet nukes as the Soviet Union disintegrated. We provided the Russians billions of dollars in assistance to prevent those Soviet nukes from getting loose.
The Russians insist that all Soviet nukes are "present or accounted for." Pakistan says theirs are, too. Perhaps, but as more and more nation-states get their own nukes – to deter regime change by aggressors – the chances increase that terrorists will get them.
And when is that most likely to happen? During or slightly after a regime change.
Suppose some time after we’ve forcibly changed the regime in Iraq, and are preparing to forcibly change the regime in Iran, a small nuke takes out Baltimore, or perhaps Tel Aviv.
Who did it?
Probably al-Qaida. But where did they get the nuke?
Well, nukes leave "fingerprints." Our radio-chemists are going to know right away if the nuke came from Pakistan, the most likely source.
But, by forcing regime change on Iraq, a non-nuke state, we may trigger an avalanche of new nuke-states, some in the Middle East, some not. Worse, the new regimes we establish may want nukes just as much as their previous rulers did, and for the same reasons. To deter aggression and to get a little respect under an American Hegemony.
Our government should listen to the American people. Concentrate on preventing loose nukes. Work with our allies. Strengthen the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation regime. Make Iraq and Iran and North Korea adhere to the Safeguards Agreements they have signed, using force if necessary. And above all, keep nukes out of Osama bin Laden’s hands.