I have bad news for Bush supporters gloating at the latest polls showing the president expanding his lead over John Kerry.
I hate to rain on your parade, but this race is far from over.
Bush partisans are giddy over the fact that Kerry’s campaign seems to be sputtering – that he can’t seem to capture much attention nor generate much excitement.
It’s true that Kerry is a colorless, humorless, unlikable patrician.
Nevertheless, despite those characteristics, he’s within the margin-of-error range in most polls. It’s astounding, really. And that’s why Bush is going to lose.
I want to take you back to 1992.
Bill Clinton was in John Kerry’s position. He was running considerably further behind George H.W. Bush in the polls. Then came the Democratic convention.
The Democrats are very good at putting on these shows, and Hollywood pulled out all the stops for Clinton.
Much to my amazement at the time, Clinton got a huge bounce from the show – and he never looked back.
Again in 1996, Clinton was running behind Bob Dole in the polls leading up to the Democratic convention. History repeated itself. The Clinton-Gore ticket bounced right back into a second term.
You can look at 2000 and see the same trend, and, while it’s true Al Gore didn’t win the White House, he did win the popular vote.
Is Bush planning to lose the popular vote again and win re-election in the electoral college? Is he planning to make it that close?
This is my prediction. Mark it down. Remember where you heard it. The day after the Democratic convention, Kerry will be a front-runner.
It gives me no pleasure to make this prediction. While I believe Bush has been a failure as a president in many ways and cannot support him for re-election, I know Kerry will prove disastrous for the country.
Many people tell me I should support Bush for this reason alone.
I can’t do that. I won’t do that. I won’t cast a vote for a candidate who doesn’t really support the Constitution of the United States, even though he takes an oath to uphold it. I will not vote for a candidate for president who increased spending – not just defense spending, but all spending – so dramatically. I don’t believe we’ll ever get real political choices as Americans if we keep making the mistake of supporting the lesser of two evils.
Kerry is a dangerous man – and I think he’s going to be the next president.
I even believe he will weather the Ralph Nader storm.
The reason? Bush is more hated now than he was in 2000. The Nader crowd is going to go for Kerry. The Bush opposition will unite to defeat him this time.
It’s bad news for America. And I’m stunned at how the Bush team is stumbling and bumbling into defeat.
These guys act like they are political geniuses. They seem to forget that Al Gore actually won more votes than Bush did in 2000.
The overconfidence is staggering.
They don’t see this coming.
It’s probably too late to do anything about it if they did.
Sure, things can change between now and November. Things can happen. But things can happen that will help or hurt either candidate.
Because I don’t have a dog in this hunt, I think I can see it a little more objectively, a little more clearly.
It’s going to be Kerry in 2004.
But, please, don’t blame the messenger.