Pollster John Zogby has predicted John Kerry will win the presidential election in November.
In a column yesterday, the researcher laid out four reasons he sees that point to the defeat of President Bush.
“I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls,” Zogby writes. “Sometimes I haven’t had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election.”
Zogby first notes lackluster poll numbers for Bush. His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race. Also, he points out Kerry is leading by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.
“Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign,” Zogby says. “Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: Voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative.”
The pollster’s third reason stems from reading the numbers surrounding the top three issues on voters’ minds.
Thirty percent of voters cite the economy as the No. 1 issue, while just 11 percent cite the war in Iraq. Kerry leads Bush 54 to 35 percent among those who name the economy. Among those citing the war in Iraq, Zogby points out, Kerry’s lead is 57 to 36 percent.
“This, of course, is balanced by the 64 percent to 30 percent margin that the president holds over Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism,” Zogby writes.
Zogby’s fourth reason: Kerry’s a good closer:
“Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Gov. Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries.”
Concluded Zogby: ” We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry’s to lose.”