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In my commentary last week I described how 2010 could be better than 2009. I will now be so bold as to describe what that better 2010 would look like. I know that there’s a great risk in making predictions, but I decided that my crystal ball is just as good as the next writer, and plenty of writers will be giving their predictions for 2010.
Besides, no one will be exactly right or totally wrong. So I’m in the game.
The economy will not improve in 2010. It may stabilize a bit more than in 2009, but the Obama administration has not implemented one program that will stimulate businesses to add jobs or grow their businesses.
Thus, the unemployment rate will remain high at 9 percent or higher, and GDP growth will remain flat at best.
In fact, it is clear that the so-called $787 billion stimulus bill was just a disguised expansion of government on top of back-to-back record fiscal year deficits for 2009 and 2010, respectively. This will cause businesses to remain in a state of “stop” as they plan for 2011. They will stop hiring and stop making plans to grow.
Republicans will regain control of the House, and the Senate will be spit 50 to 50.
Conservatives will be propelled into office because of the boiling resistance movement by voters against the ultra liberal agenda of the administration and the Democrat-controlled Congress. Just as it was difficult to quantify the Obama effect in the 2008 presidential election until after the fact, it is equally difficult to quantify the resistance effect on the 2010 elections.
The three biggest reasons for this resistance are the tsunami run-away federal spending, the Cap & Trade & Tax & Kill bill, and the health-care deform bill. Most voters know that we cannot spend our way to prosperity, and they have caught on to the scams and deceptions in both of those bills, regardless of whether they are actually signed into law.
The resistance movement is more than just tea party rallies and demonstrations, which the administration and the Democrats are dismissing as a bunch of fringe crazies and not representative of a real grass-roots movement. I hope they continue that attitude, while a growing number of conservative organizations are getting their acts together and getting together to better inform and inspire voters.
According to an October 2009 Gallup poll, conservatives and moderates outnumber liberals two to one. Informed voters will not be snookered again with eloquent rhetoric and deceptive promises. Voters will remember in November.
Several new faces will emerge as potential presidential candidates for 2012. It is doubtful that a Democrat will challenge the eloquent one, but none of the Republican usual suspects will generate a commanding lead in early 2011 polls. Just as the resistance movement will produce unexpected results in the 2010 mid-term elections, some unexpected new household names will appear as presidential possibilities.
Some corners of the conservative universe are making noises about “throwing all the bums out” or even starting a third political party. Both of these objectives are unlikely because of a lack of coordinated leadership and money. This is another area where the resistance movement is making significant headway. But please don’t tell the president, Harry or Nancy.
Just like an irrefutable law of physics, before you can stop a train, you must first slow it down. I predict that the socialism express will be severely slowed in 2010. And if everything goes “right,” then we could see a derailment in 2012.
That’s not just better. That would be great!