If a presidential election were held today, “someone new” would win handily over President Obama, with a 50 percent to 42 percent margin of victory, according to a new poll.

The poll by Zogby International, commissioned by the O’Leary Report, showed  Obama’s support has plunged among the 60 million voters who pay federal income taxes, among 80 million gun owners and in congressional districts called “competitive” by the Cook Political Report.

The O’Leary Report political newsletter is published by Brad O’Leary, author of the books “The Audacity of Deceit” and “Shut Up, America.”

The poll showed that only 42 percent of likely voters today would choose to re-elect Obama. Fifty percent would choose “someone new.”

The poll of 10,128 likely voters confirmed a recent Gallup poll that also found 50 percent of voters would choose not to re-elect Obama. However, Zogby dug more deeply into Obama’s support to discover who actually remains in his camp.

Among those who pay federal income taxes, Obama would lose re-election 53 percent to 40 percent. Among gun owners, he would lose 68 percent to 26 percent. In the “competitive” congressional districts, mostly Democratic, he would lose 49 percent to 44 percent.

Among the Southwest’s 9 million voters in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Utah, Obama would lose 52 percent to 34 percent. In Mid-Atlantic states of Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and the District of Columbia (27 million voters), he’d lose 49 percent to 43 percent.

The South would hand Obama defeat in Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida and Texas (34 million voters) 53 percent to 41 percent.

In the Midwest (27 million voters in Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana and Illinois) he would lose 50 percent to 44 percent, the report said. In the Central and North Plains (8 million voters in Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and North Dakota), Obama would lose 56 percent to 38 percent. In the Pacific region (20 million voters in California, Alaska, Hawaii, Oregon, Nevada and Washington), he would lose 46 to 45 percent.

Those who cite the significance of the endorsement from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (37 million) would reject him 73 percent to 22 percent. The 21 million voters age 65 and older would turn him out of office 57 percent to 38 percent and among the 31 million who watch for the Christian Coalition endorsement, he’d fall 84 percent to 13 percent.

Those who regard the recommendation of the National Rifle Association as important would choose “someone else” 93 percent to 5 percent.

“Most surprisingly, the president has lost significant ground among the independent voters who helped sweep him into office in 2008. These 38 million voters would vote against Obama 57 to 38 percent,” the poll report said.

The poll revealed three demographic groups in which Obama still has support:

  • American voters who are not required to pay federal income taxes (roughly 36 million people)

  • Voters in the New England region (7 million people)
  • Voters age 18-29 years old (24 million people).

In the non-tax-paying group, 49 percent would choose Obama, and 42 percent would refuse him another term. In New England, the margin narrowed, with 46 percent choosing Obama and 44 percent someone else. Among voters age 18-29, 46 percent would choose Obama and 42 percent would not.

The poll, which has a margin of error of 1 percent, reports among the estimated 45 million voters who say the tea party recommendation is important to them, 94 percent would vote against Obama and 5 percent would check the box beside his name.

“The growth of this movement’s influence is astonishing, as fully 34 percent of voters plan to take their cue at the ballot box this year from the tea party,” the report said.

More poll information is available at the O’Leary Report.

Another poll released earlier this year found only 51 percent of the voters even believe Obama is eligible to hold the office.


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