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WASHINGTON – The World Bank has warned Beijing its annual rate of growth could plummet from about 10 percent to 5 percent over the next 15 years, creating serious social unrest, unless major economic and political reforms are begun immediately, according to Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.

The bank said that China could walk into a “middle-income trap” if the reforms don’t include diminished government interference in the economy, addressing social inequality and the serious environmental pollution it faces today.

Even at a 5-percent growth rate, the World Bank has pointed out, the world’s second largest economy could replace the United States as the largest world economy by 2030.

Analysts believe, however, that China’s Communist Party leadership may not implement the suggested reforms. One of the most contentious recommendations calls for Beijing to redefine the role of government by pushing privatization of state enterprises and to make governance more inclusive by emphasizing more Chinese citizen participation in politics.

China’s leadership is expected to resist the call to privatize state-owned businesses since it has been Beijing’s policy for decades to build government-owned businesses in fields ranging from banking, steel industries and airlines to oil and technology.

“As China’s leaders know, the country’s current economic growth model is unsustainable,” said World Bank President Robert Zoellick.

He added that China had reached a turning point and needs to “redefine the role of the state.”

Another idea that may not be taken seriously is the World Bank’s suggestion that a high-level reform commission be established with the full support of the highest government officials. In addition to possible resistance to reform, China also is facing an aging population, competition for natural resources and increasing environmental damage.

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