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Zogby: Kerry will win in 2004

May 10, 2004: Six months out from the 2004 election, pollster John Zogby took a leap of faith and predicted a winner in November.

“I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls,” Zogby wrote in a column. “Sometimes I haven’t had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election.”

Zogby cited four reasons for his prediction: Bush’s lackluster poll numbers, very few undecided voters, Kerry’s lead on the top three issues on voters’ minds and Kerry’s reputation as a “good closer.”

Concluded Zogby: ” We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry’s to lose.”

And he did.

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