I have been predicting election outcomes for many decades. During the years that I served as in-house political adviser for the Sun Oil Company (Pew family), they had me put my predictions in an envelope in a safe several months before the election every two years. Those predictions were opened up at a board meeting the day after the election, and I was rarely off by more then one or two percentage points, so my record of accurate predictions is near impeccable.
However, on Oct. 5, this year, I published a column in which I estimated Obama’s popular vote at 59.98 million votes. Reports from across the country tell us that he received 59.90 million votes on Tuesday. So my estimate of the Obama popular vote was off by 0.13 percent, or just more than one-tenth of one percent.
However, on the Republican side of the ledger, I estimated that Mitt Romney would pick up 90 percent of the 3.7 million Republicans who voted for Obama in 2008, plus 90 percent of the 2.4 million veterans who had finally concluded that Obama was anti-military. Using John McCain’s 2008 total as a baseline, that would bring Romney’s popular vote total to 65.42 million votes. Add to that the 4.22 million independent votes that were expected to move from Obama to Romney, and that brought Romney’s estimated total to 69.64 million votes. However, when we look at the total popular vote for Tuesday, we are told that Romney achieved a popular vote of only 57.20 million votes – 12.44 million votes less than my estimate and 2.73 million votes less than John McCain received in 2008. That simply did not, and could not, have happened. If it did, I missed the Romney total by nearly 18 percent. I’ve never been even close to that far off in my entire adult life.
The Romney figures fly in the face of reason, to put it mildly. How could the most lackluster candidate the party could possibly have chosen in 2008, running against a self-proclaimed messianic rock-star, outpoll a man in 2012 who came very close to being the ideal candidate? Where are the 3.33 million Republicans who voted for Obama in 2008? Where are the 2.4 million veterans? Where are the 4.22 million independents? And where are all the millions of Roman Catholics who have been told by their bishops that they would be endangering their immortal souls by voting for Obama?
Someone has seriously cooked the books.
Paul R. Hollrah