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HARRIETSHAM, KENT – Here in the Garden of England, after a long and savage winter, we have had the coldest spring in 120 years. Snow fell in the north of England as late as May 23. The trees are still struggling into leaf. The bluebells came a month late. This is the third or fourth bad winter in a row.
In Russia they have had the coldest winter and the highest snowfall in a century.
In the United States, around 10,000 new cold-weather and high-snowfall records have been set.
The climate cry-babies are wailing that global warming is causing global cooling. When one points out to them that the U.N.’s climate panel has come to the unsurprising conclusion that global warming implies precisely the opposite of global cooling, they say the warming is playing hide-and-seek with us in the deep ocean, from which one day it is going to come out and say, “BOO!” Or not, as the case may be.
My good friend Dr. David Archibald is a sun-watcher. He says the bright yellow thing in the sky that we have not seen much of in the Northern Hemisphere over the past six months is in danger of becoming less active than it has been for 300 years.
He is one among many. The splendidly named Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov of the hard-headed Russian Academy of Sciences, where few have ever believed the global warming nonsense, has been saying the same for some time.
Dr. Dennis Ray Wingo of NASA was the first to alert me to the possibility of a multi-decadal decline in solar activity. Almost seven years ago, he kindly wrote to tell me that the magnetic convection currents beneath the solar surface had slowed to walking pace, a phenomenon unprecedented since we had first been able to study them. He said trouble was coming, and it was not coming from us.
Now, one should not read too much into a couple of cold seasons. But I have recently been preparing a new regular treat for WND subscribers. It is a monthly index of the ever-growing discrepancy between the absurd predictions of the useless computer models and the far less exciting measurements done by the most accurate temperature-measuring instruments in the world – platinum resistance thermometers mounted on satellites.
A sneak preview of the monthly index is here. The latest central estimate from the computer models (so new that WND subscribers are the first to see it) is that there should have been about 0.2 Cº (0.4 Fº) warming over the 100 months since January 2005. But there has been no global warming at all. It may even have cooled a little. The “consensus” was wrong.
Yet CO2 concentration, also shown on the monthly graph, continues to increase at about 2 µatm per year (i.e., two parts per million of the atmosphere). So why is there no warming?
The main reason, probably, is the sun. Just 350 years ago it went through the biggest hissy-fit of the past 10,000 years and more, sullenly producing around 0.2 percent less energy than usual for 70 years. The result was the Little Ice Age, when the Thames in London and the Hudson in New York froze over with painful regularity.
Could the same – or worse – now happen again? This is a question that those scientists not fanatical in their obsession with CO2-driven global warming are anxiously beginning to ask.
From the solar Grand Minimum of 1645-1715 to the Grand Maximum of 1925-1995, solar activity rose more quickly than during any similar period over the 11,400 years since the end of the last Ice Age. Since its peak in 1960, however, it has been in decline.
At first the decline was slow. More recently it has accelerated. If that decline continues, then it will not be global warming we shall be worrying about, but global cooling. And that would be a far bigger killer than warmer weather.
So take a look at my monthly one-pager and let me know what you think. I have just shown the sample monthly graph to the ticket-collector on the train to London. He was so fascinated that he stopped checking people’s tickets and stared at the graph.
First he was astonished, then he was outraged. Astonished because no one had told him just how little global warming there had been: in fact, less than three-quarters of a Celsius degree since records began in 1850.
Over the last 17 years and 2 months, and there has been no global warming statistically distinguishable from zero at all. The rate over a century would be less than 1 Cº, and that is not worth shutting down the West for.
The ticket-collector was outraged because, as he said, the graph was fascinating, and yet he had never seen anything like it in any of the news media. He was angry that he was not being shown enough basic data to allow him to draw his own conclusions about the story-line they had adopted with such embarrassing and misguided alacrity.
What will happen next? Unlike the wailing crystal-screen gazers of the global-warming fraternity and the screeching chimpanzees of the news media, I cannot foretell the future. Past temperature trends do not tell us what will happen next.
But one thing the monthly Global Warming Prediction Index will do is show just how bad the predictions made by the soi-disant “consensus” are proving to be.
Make sure your congressman and senators see the one-page, no-nonsense Index every month. Once they see it, perhaps they will be less inclined than they are now to bet the taxpayer’s farm on trying to make non-existent global warming go away.
In the meantime, prepare to be very, very cold. Doctors Archibald, Abdussamatov and Wingo are in the prediction business. They say global cooling is the real danger.
Imagine how the cry-babies will wail if we get the intense cold the solar physicists expect. As the glaciers relentlessly advance towards their ivory-substitute towers, they will no doubt still be blaming global cooling on global warming.