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Exploiting the dead to hype climate change

Posted By Lord Monckton On 11/12/2013 @ 6:57 pm In Commentary,Opinion | No Comments

Even the dead are not safe from the greatest lie ever told – man-made global warming.

Ruthless propagandists and vicious profiteers of doom have scrambled to exploit the tragic death and destruction in the Philippines to keep the taxpayer dollars flowing into their silk-lined pockets by falsely blaming Typhoon Haiyan on the West and its industries.

They did the same with “hurricane” Sandy, actually a storm with a well-understood natural cause – a clash of three separate weather systems over a heavily populated area.

Nature, once a journal of real science and now a PR scandal-sheet that shamelessly lobbies for more science funding for fat-cat boffins, rushed into print Monday with a piece entitled “Did climate change cause typhoon Haiyan?” The unscientific tone is self-evident from the get-go: “Speculation is heating up as to whether the disaster may be a manifestation of climate change.” As Nature should know, science is done by measurement, not speculation.

Nature’s ridiculous piece used a now-standard tactic: a sub-headline admitting that “there is limited evidence that warming oceans could make superstorms more likely” ingeniously negated by selective quotations from a couple of politicized pseudo-scientists well-known for exaggerating predictions of global warming and its supposed adverse consequences.

Nature’s quotation from the latest report of the U.N.’s laughable, discredited climate panel talks of “upward trends” since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s. It carefully omitted the IPCC’s plain statement that there are “no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century.”

Nature also studiously avoided mentioning the IPCC’s 2012 “Special Report on Extreme Weather,” which found little or no link between warmer weather and worse storms.

Hundreds of news outlets jumped on the bandwagon of Apocalypse by ingeniously stating wind speeds in kilometers as wind speeds in miles – an instant 60 percent exaggeration. Many of those outlets did not bother to correct their error when it was pointed out to them.

No direct wind-speed measurements were made, because only the United States has the capacity to fly into tropical cyclones to take measurements, and budget cuts confine such measurements to landfalling Atlantic hurricanes.

However, the best estimate comes from scientists at the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center, who estimate Haiyan’s maximum sustained wind speeds of 190-195 mph. On that analysis, several previous typhoons in recorded history were worse.

Therefore, the thousands of reports that Haiyan was the strongest tropical cyclone ever to make landfall have no scientific foundation at all. They are cruel rodomontade.

Why, then, did Haiyan do so much damage? The answer is that, as with Sandy, local factors that have nothing whatever to do with global warming enhanced its destructiveness.

First, it is mercifully rare for a storm of this kind to achieve peak intensity just at the moment when it reaches landfall, as Haiyan did. Secondly, the storm funneled into a broad bay, concentrating its fury into a 13-foot storm surge that swamped a major city in its path.

Dr. Ryan Maue at Florida State University measures the power dissipation of tropical cyclones (a term that includes hurricanes and typhoons). His Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index, a 24-month running sum of the combined frequency, intensity and duration of all tropical cyclones around the globe, is close to its lowest-ever level in the 33 years since satellite monitoring began. Very few of the reports on Haiyan’s causes mentioned that.

However, Dr. Maue also counts the number of major tropical cyclones worldwide. The trend has been very slightly upward in the satellite era: an average increase of just two major storms a year. That is well within the natural variability of the climate.

The most important hard fact of all is this. Just a few days ago it became known that there has been no global warming at all for exactly 17 years. The RSS satellite dataset of worldwide temperatures shows a zero trend for exactly 204 months. Here is the remarkable month-by-month graph of global temperatures flatlining:

Atmospheric CO2 concentration continues to rise, but global temperature has been going nowhere for almost two decades. Enjoy this graph. You will not see it anywhere else. It does not fit the party line, so most “news” media will deliberately not reveal what it shows.

In logic, which few scientists and no journalists learn these days, an event that has not happened cannot have caused an event that has. For whether the usual suspects like it or not, the arrow of time runs in one direction only.

Since there has been no global warming, global warming cannot – repeat cannot – have caused typhoon Haiyan, superstorm Sandy, or any other recent extreme-weather event.

It is as simple as that. No global warming, nothing caused by global warming. Yet not one of the hundreds of reports on the supposed connection between global warming and Typhoon Haiyan manages to mention that simple, crucial but inconvenient truth.

 

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