(GALLUP) — PRINCETON, NJ — Nineteen percent of U.S. registered voters say most members of Congress deserve re-election, roughly the same as in two measures earlier this year. This is on pace to be the lowest such “re-elect” sentiment in a midterm election year over Gallup’s history of asking this question since 1992.
The latest update on this measure comes from Gallup’s Aug. 7-10 survey in which congressional job approval was 13%, just a few percentage points higher than the all-time low on that measure.
This congressional re-elect measure is related to overall congressional seat change in a midterm election and to the percentage of House members seeking re-election who are returned to Congress. Assuming that these attitudes remain similarly sour over the next 2 1/2 months, history would suggest above-average turnover in Congress in the November elections. Two other years in which this measure was relatively low — 1994 and 2010 — saw major shakeups, although the same party (Democrats) controlled the House and the Senate in both of those years, which may have made it easier for voters to take out their frustrations. Still, the 19% of American voters who on average this year say most members do not deserve re-election is significantly lower than in 1994 or 2010, providing a negative general context for the coming elections.