WASHINGTON – The looming civil war in Yemen has taken an unexpected Cold War turn as the Iranian-backed Houthis have ousted the U.S.-backed Sunni government of President Abed Rabbo Mansou Hadi, crippling U.S. counter-terrorism efforts against Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP.
In taking over the capital, the Houthis eagerly are seeking outside assistance and are approaching the Russians, who seek to extend their own influence in the region to take advantage of dwindling U.S. involvement.
Middle East sources say the Houthis, who took over the Yemeni capital of Sanaa last September, are posing a threat to Sunni Saudi Arabia.
Riyadh sees the Houthis as a proxy for Shiite Iran.
The Houthis, who are part of the Zaidi offshoot of Shiite Islam, have sought to extend their control from the northern part of the country. The Houthis comprise about 30 percent of Yemen’s 26 million people.
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Beyond the area the Houthis control, however, AQAP and other Sunni jihadist tribes occupy the remainder of the country.
Houthi interest in approaching the Russians is consistent with Moscow’s backing of Iran to preserve the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad.
For decades, Russia has had good relations with Yemen, especially during the Soviet era, by providing economic and military assistance such as weapons, advisers and training of Yemeni security forces.
In addition, some 50,000 Yemenis over time have been educated in Soviet and now Russian universities.
The Russians see Yemen as a battleground between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, which is next door. In turn, the Saudis and Russians have had a falling out due to Moscow’s continuing support for Syria’s Assad and backing of Iran’s nuclear program against Saudi regional interests.
For years, the Saudis also have been helping to finance the Chechens, who form the bulk of the Muslim population in southern Russia and have been launching attacks against the Russian government.
As a result, the Russians see the Houthis as dealing a blow to Saudi, as well as American, interests.
The renewed relationship with the Yemeni Houthis will give Russia “a certain leverage over Saudi Arabia, with whom Moscow hasn’t been on the same page for a long while,” said Middle East expert Maxim A. Suchkovin, who writes for Al-Monitor.com.
“Moscow perfectly understands that the Saudis are very much concerned about the situation in their immediate neighborhood and could have considered this a vital tool to influence the Saudis, especially now that they dropped oil prices, which has seriously affected the Russian economy,” he said.
Suchkov said the Kremlin also sees Yemen as offering a strategic base near Aden, allowing the Russians to control “vital commercial and logistical sea routes, from the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea to the Indian Ocean.”
At the same time, Moscow wants to avoid getting in the middle of the sectarian conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
“Russia is also anything but willing to get involved in the Iran-Saudi face-off, let alone the greater Shiite-Sunni showdown in the region,” Suchkov said. “Having no immediate stakes in the struggle but rather long-term interests in the region as a whole, it feels reluctant to recognize the Houthis’ rule officially, but it doesn’t give up on the contacts, either.
“Now that everyone is looking for allies in the fight against the Islamic State, Russia may side with the Houthis, who bear their own grudge against Sunni Islamists,” he said. “While Riyadh is more preoccupied with Shiite militang groups, Russians see ISIS as a much graver challenge to their security. In this context, Shiite groups can be deemed at least temporary partners in tackling ISIS.”
In the case of Yemen, Suchkov said Moscow is content to be involved in “selective distant engagement,” given its previous experiences in Afghanistan.
The Houthis, however, see Russia as providing potential investment in energy projects. This comes as the United States, Britain, France, Turkey and even Saudi Arabia have shut their embassies when they took over the capital.
With their departure, the Houthis see Russia and even China as adding legitimacy to their interim government.
They seek international alliances to balance the “new face of Yemeni politics,” according to Ahmed Bahri, who is political director for the pro-Houthi Haqq Party.
The Houthis also are seeking investments with Iran, having established direct airline connections between Iran and Sanaa. They also want Iran to invest in energy projects in the Al Jawf and Saada provinces which border Saudi Arabia but are under Houthi control.
The Houthis have seen how Syrian's involvement with Russia and Iran lessened its international isolation and hope for similar results.
That will depend, however, on just how strategic the Russians and even the Chinese will regard Yemen in fulfillment of their long-term objectives.