As we enter the first turn in the run-up to the 2016 presidential election and as we get closer to the Iowa caucus, things are beginning to change. Although Trump still has a generous lead over his opponents, the terror attacks in Paris seem to have some of the voters re-evaluating their choice of candidate.
Donald Trump is either prophetic or just downright lucky in that his timing seems impeccable when it comes to having his finger on the pulse of what is grabbing the headlines. He frequently raises an issue most people have not been addressing, like refugees or terror, and wham! The next moment something happens in the world that makes it the No. 1 story. Is it luck? I don't know, but it sure has been working for him.
Prior to the ISIS attacks in Paris, Dr. Ben Carson was gaining momentum and building a strong following that started to erode Trump's lead. He even at one point took over the lead from Trump, which led to some ugly political banter being tossed around. But once the focus shifted to Paris, people started questioning whether Carson had the foreign policy gravitas a president needs. (We have all seen what happens when a president is clueless on how foreign policy works.)
Giving Carson a second, harder look, the voters, who still love his honesty, integrity and soft-spoken approach to government, shifted their eyes not to Trump, but to Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio as alternatives. Cruz made the biggest gains and picked up quite a few Carson supporters because he appeared to be tougher and harder on dealing with ISIS and terror. Rubio also gained, but he still carries the stigma of being a political insider, while Cruz does not.
Jeb Bush was the biggest loser after the Paris attacks. He was virtually a non-starter and got lost in the shuffle because he came off as weaker than the others. Even if he had pertinent things to say, he was dismissed because he just doesn't have the charisma it takes to battle the top four.
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As we approach Iowa, Cruz seems to have the momentum. He has a good ground game there, and his money supply is healthy. We have seen in the past that Iowa always tends to go much more conservative with their pick, so it would be no surprise to see Cruz come out on top. However, we can't rule out Trump at this point. He has revved up his ground game, and there are plenty of people there who walk the same line he does on the issues. The only downside for Trump is that the Republican donor class is launching an all-out attack on him with ads and smears they hope will finally derail his campaign. They should be careful, however, because the people of Iowa don't always "take a shine" to negative campaigning. It could actually backfire on the elites and give Trump a bigger boost.
As we see the outcome in Iowa, things will begin to come into focus. I would predict that most of the candidates with numbers below 5 percent are not going to stay in for the long haul. John Kasich may last just because the elites are still hoping that Trump will implode – and if Cruz or Rubio take the lead, Kasich can bring Ohio in as a VP option. Bush will stay in just because he has to, and he has the money for the long haul. I think he is still hoping that, like the tortoise and the hare, he will slowly cross that finish line. Christie, Fiorina, Huckabee and Paul are hanging on by a thread. Unless there are some serious missteps I can't at this point see any of them rising to the top.
Trump could take New Hampshire over Cruz, but then we are in the backstretch and there is still a long way to go. Once the delegate count starts coming in we can see if the American people are still going for the outsider or if they stay with the status quo. Trump has some serious die-hard supporters out there, and no matter what he says or does nothing deters them. With that in mind, the GOP will do everything it can to take him out. I can imagine the fear-mongering from the donor class if Trump starts racking up the delegates. It will be brutal.
Into the homestretch, I think we will see Trump, Cruz and Rubio battling it out. Any of the others could be viable VP candidates, but if the polls still show that any of these three can handily beat Hillary, then a swing-state governor won't be as important on the ticket.
Down to the finish line, it might very well be a Trump-Cruz ticket, but like I said, anything can happen. Whether it's Trump, Cruz or Rubio, we need to win big because we don't want a photo finish with Hillary.
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