trumpcruz
NEW YORK – Despite the Republican establishment’s “#NeverTrump” movement against the party’s presidential primary front-runner, Donald Trump’s campaign is positioned to advance this month.

Trump might even gain enough delegates by the end of March to reach the halfway point of the 1,237 needed to win the GOP presidential nomination on the first ballot.

Going into the week of March 7, Trump has 385 delegates versus 300 for Sen. Ted Cruz.

Cruz has surged since last Thursday’s Fox News debate, splitting with Trump the GOP elections held on Saturday. Cruz won the Kansas and Maine caucuses, while Trump took the primary contests in Kentucky and Louisiana.

On March 15, the GOP primary season enters a second phase, with “winner take all” contests in Ohio and Florida.

The previous elections were proportional, with each candidate obtaining delegates based on a percentage of the vote.

Hillary for prosecution, not president! Join the sizzling campaign to put Mrs. Clinton where she really belongs

Based on the most recent polling data, Table 1 shows Trump obtaining more than 300 delegates in March primaries, with wins in both Ohio and Florida.

This would give Trump a total of nearly 700 delegates, with Cruz at about 400, presuming the Texas senator also loses the “winner- take-all” primaries in Missouri and Arizona, where Trump has commanding leads.

Table 1

Remaining GOP Primaries in March 2016

   

Total Delegates

 

 

Trump

RCP Avg.

 

Cruz

RCP

Avg.

 

Rubio

RCP

Avg.

 

Kasich

RCP

Avg.

 

Trump Delegate

Count

 

Hawaii

March 8

 

19

 

 

n/r

 

n/r

 

n/r

 

n/r

 

n/r

 

Michigan

March 8

 

59

 

 

38.5

 

20.5

 

13.3

 

20.0

 

23

 

Mississippi

March 8

 

40

 

 

41.0*

 

17.0

 

16.0

 

8.0

 

16

 

Idaho

March 8

 

32

 

 

n/r

 

n/r

 

n/r

 

n/r

 

n/r

 

D.C.

March 12

 

19

 

 

n/r

 

n/r

 

n/r

 

n/r

 

n/r

 

Florida

March 15

 

99

WTA

 

44.7

 

26.0

 

12.3

 

8.3

 

99

 

Ohio

March 15

 

66

WTA

 

31.0**

 

21.0

 

13.0

 

26.0

 

66

 

Illinois

March 15

 

69

 

 

33.0

 

15.5

 

17.5

 

11.0

 

23

 

Missouri

March 15

 

52

WTA

 

23.0***

 

9.0

 

6.0

 

4.0

 

52

 

North Carolina

March 15

 

72

 

 

29.8

 

19.5

 

17.5

 

6.8

 

21

 

Arizona

March 22

 

58

WTA

 

34.8****

 

n/r

 

22.7

 

n/r

 

20

 

Utah

March 22

 

40

 

 

18.0*****

 

22.0

 

24.0

 

4.0

 

7

 

Total

   

307

*  Magellan Strategies, ** Quinnipiac, *** Public Policy Polling, **** MBQF, ***** UtahPolicy.com, n/r=not reported, WTA=Winner Take All.

Cruz, so far, has shown an ability to win primaries in states close to home, with victories in his home state of Texas and in Oklahoma and Kansas.

Related (Story continues below):

Trump tells Savage: ISIS to get ‘worse than waterboarding’

Mathematics moving to Trump’s side

Fans maul Sanders for saying whites ‘don’t know’ poverty

John Kasich calls contested convention ‘exciting’

Muslims, Sikhs rally in support of Trump

Conceivably, if Marco Rubio were to drop out of the race after losing the Florida primary, as currently projected, Cruz stands to gain voters who are reluctant to embrace Trump.

If Cruz loses Ohio and Florida to Trump, the mathematics dictate that Cruz’s best hope would not necessarily be to win outright, but to prevent Trump from getting the number of delegates needed to win the nomination on the first ballot.

The numerical chance that Cruz could win enough delegates to gain the nomination on the first ballot is increasingly slim, especially should Trump capture all of the “winner take all” primaries in March.

If Trump wins more than 300 delegates this month, he would need only about 500 more in April, May and June to reach the 1,237 required to win the nomination on the first ballot.

What do YOU think? Who would be the most formidable Republican nominee? Sound off in today’s WND poll

Primary contest April, May and June

After Mitt Romney’s drawn-out battle for delegates in 2012 with Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, the GOP structured the primaries so the candidate with a lead through February has the opportunity to accelerate his or her momentum in April through the winner-take-all contests.

Table 2

“Winner Take All” GOP Primaries, April, May, and June 2016

Date State Total Delegates
 

April 5

 

Wisconsin

 

42 WTA

 

April 26

 

Delaware

 

16 WTA

 

April 26

 

Maryland

 

38 WTA

 

April 26

 

Pennsylvania

 

54 Proportional,

17 WTA

 

May 3

 

Indiana

 

57 WTA

 

June 7

 

California

 

172 WTA

 

June 7

 

Montana

 

27 WTA

 

June 7

 

New Jersey

 

51 WTA

 

June 7

 

South Dakota

 

29 WTA

 

TOTAL

   

449 WTA

While Trump cannot be expected to win all of the winner-take-all GOP primaries in April, May and June, none are regarded as strongly conservative or evangelical states.

 

Table 3

“Proportionate” GOP Primaries, April, May and June 2016

Date State Total Delegates
 

April 19

 

New York

 

95

 

April 26

 

Connecticut

 

28

 

April 26

 

Rhode Island

 

19

 

May 10

 

Nebraska

 

36

 

May 10

 

West Virginia

 

37

 

May 17

 

Oregon

 

28

 

May 24

 

Washington

 

44

 

June 7

 

New Mexico

 

24

 

TOTAL

   

311 Proportionate

As seen in Tables 2 and 3, no Southern states are scheduled to hold GOP primaries in April, May and June.

Trump’s cushion in the proportional primaries in April, May and June is New York, his home state, with 95 delegates, the most for any proportional state holding its GOP primary in these three months.

Hillary for prosecution, not president! Join the sizzling campaign to put Mrs. Clinton where she really belongs

Related columns

The secret of the ‘sad Sanders supporter’ by David Kupelian

Vote for Ted Cruz by Joseph Farah

Note: Read our discussion guidelines before commenting.