Could Muslims become a majority in Europe by the middle of this century? That’s the prediction of French economist and financier Charles Gave in a paper published in early September on the website of Institut des Libertes.
Gave contended that with a fertility rate of 1.4 children per native European woman and 3.4 to 4 children per immigrant – which he interprets to mean “Muslim” women – and if the Muslim population is currently 10 percent of the total European population, it will take only 30 to 40 years for the Muslim population to become the majority.
There were problems with Gave’s analysis, however.
He was criticized by a French newspaper for overestimating Europe’s current Muslim population and underestimating the fertility rate of native Europeans.
On the other hand, he only considered births; he failed to account for Muslim immigration or the possibility that native Europeans may convert to Islam or current Muslims may leave the faith. Islam is an ideology, not a race, so people may choose to enter or leave it at any point in their lives.
But there is more than a grain of truth behind Gave’s concern.
As Belgian author Drieu Godefridi wrote at the Gatestone Institute, Europeans have been slowly diminishing their native populations for the past 40 years simply by not having babies. The fertility rate is below replacement level in all European Union member states.
In a closely related development, abortion is on the rise. In France, for example, there are 200,000 abortions per year versus about 750,000 births annually. That means the French are aborting more than one-fifth of their unborn babies.
Then, too, the Muslim share of Europe’s population has been steadily growing, from 4 percent in 1990 to 6 percent in 2010, according to the Pew Research Center. (Although it’s difficult to know exactly how big the Muslim population is, because France doesn’t collect census information on race, ethnicity or religion.)
In fact, Islam is the world’s fastest-growing system, and Pew projects it to grow more than twice as fast as the overall world population between 2015 and 2060. It is expected to surpass Christianity as the world’s largest religion in the second half of this century.
Author and filmmaker G.M. Davis has been studying Islam for many years. He pointed out hundreds of thousands of native Europeans have converted to Islam within the past decade, speeding the growth of the religion on the continent. He warns non-Muslims not to underestimate the appeal of Islam, especially when juxtaposed with modern Christianity.
“The traditional religions of, say, Britain, the Church of England – these really, when you look at them, they’re quite moribund,” Davis said in a recent interview with the “Prophecy Hour” radio program. “They have no fire anymore. They’ve become … politically correct. They fall over themselves not to affirm their own truth, but to try and get along with everybody else, whereas Islam will violently, even, assert itself, and for some people that is appealing.”
Davis, author of “House of War: Islam’s Jihad Against the World,” noted Muslims boldly declare the truth as they understand it, just as the early Christian apostles did.
“They took a lot of heat for it, but it was also appealing because it was true, but also because, I think, the manner in which it was declared,” Davis said. “It was declared confidently. You had people who truly believed what they were preaching, whereas who now truly believes what he’s preaching?
“Well, again, it’s not really happening in the Church of England. It’s not really happening in Roman Catholicism anymore. It might be happening in some Protestant churches and some Orthodox churches, but the traditional institutions of the West are failing in this regard, and Islam is in many ways filling a vacuum. It’s powerful. It has a sense of power about it, and I think that’s one of the reasons people were attracted to Muhammad in his day, because he was a powerful man, he was courageous in battle, he was an organizer of men, and I think that’s why people are attracted to Islam today.”
To secular-minded people in the West, it might make no sense for a Muslim to fly halfway across the world to live in a tent in Afghanistan in preparation for a suicide mission, Davis noted. But such a person is responding to a call within himself that the secular world can’t understand.
Davis said people could also be attracted to Islam because it brings structure to a person’s life – the daily prayers and going to the mosque – in a way that Christianity has done.
Not to mention the fact that most Muslim men are “real men,” according to Davis.
“They’re serious, they’re tough, they’re committed to something in a way that a lot of secular people simply aren’t; and that can be attractive at a variety of levels,” Davis explained.
He said strength is a major selling point for the entire religion.
“Islam is strong and vibrant and self-confident, as strange and sort of anarchic as it might seem to most of us,” he commented. “It has a self-confidence which very little in the West does anymore.”
Davis charged that all Western governments are on the wrong side of the Islam issue. He wants to hear politicians and candidates talk about “containment” of Islam, just as the West once sought to contain the spread of communism during the Cold War.
“What containment would mean is overseas we want to stop Islam from spreading to non-Islamic countries, and we want to stop it from getting more of a foothold at home,” Davis explained.
“Now as soon as you say that, however, then you do cross the politically correct line, because what that would mean is we’d need to persuade western European governments that they are in grave danger, that they are on a path to becoming majority Muslim by the end of the century, which will be an unprecedented catastrophe for Europe and even for the United States. What they’re really on a path for is civil war. That civil war sooner or later at some level is going to break out in the cities of Western Europe.”