The Democrats’ dream of taking control of the U.S. Senate in the 2018 election likely is slipping away, a new poll indicates.
The party is in the throes of an intense campaign to delay or defeat President Trump’s latest, and maybe not last, nomination to the Supreme Court, Judge Brett Kavanaugh, by winning a majority in the Senate.
An Axios poll released Tuesday suggests that’s unlikely.
The Democrats are opposing Kavanaugh primarily because Trump nominated him, but they also fear a generational shift in the Supreme Court, with a reliable conservative replacing retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy’s swing vote.
Republicans hold a narrow 51-49 edge at the moment.
“To win the Senate, Democrats need to keep all 10 seats they’re defending in states that President Trump won in 2016 — plus pick up two more seats,” the poll explained.
“That’s not happening. A new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll of key states shows Dems would lose three of those red-state seats while picking up two GOP seats — still short of the majority.”
The survey considered responses from more than 12,000 voters from June 11 to July 2.
The stakes in the U.S. House, which Democrats also have visions of capturing, are more important, Axios said, “if they’re going to have any kind of congressional check on President Trump.”
The poll shows the three Democratic senators poised to lose their seats to Republicans are Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Bill Nelson of Florida and Joe Donnelly of Indiana.
The Democrats could pick up Republican seats in Arizona and Nevada, but the GOP like would keep the Tennessee seat, the report said.
“Even under the most optimistic scenarios for Democrats across all 13 states, they would still lose the same seats by a range of one percentage point to 14 percentage points,” reported Axios. “Under Republicans’ most bullish forecast, they would actually pick up six seats, the four mentioned above plus Ohio and Missouri.”
The bottom line?
“Democrats face long odds to take back the Senate,” the report said.