Sunni-Shiite fight threatens widespread impact

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Yemen

What was launched along the Saudi Arabian–Yemeni border in the Middle East as a fight among Islamic factions eventually could threaten to draw in both the United States and Russia – on opposite sides, according to a report from Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.

The Sunni-Shiite Islamic dispute so far has been between the Iranian-backed Shiite Houthi Islamist militants and Yemen and its supporter, Sunni Saudi Arabia. Already the conflict's issues are pushing Russia and Iran into an even closer relationship as they both work to dominate the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa region.

But analysts question whether the quickly spreading impact of the factional dispute ultimately could draw Russia in on Iran's side, with the U.S. siding with Saudi Arabia.

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The already present cooperation between Russia and Iran on issues from the Caucasus to the Indian Ocean not only has made the Yemeni conflict more global in nature, it also provides a convenient means by which Russia realizes efforts to regain its position in the region while Iran seeks to re-establish what it calls the Islamic Republic of Eastern Arabia.

Iran last May declared its intentions to create the "republic" and said it would include Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen. The war involving the Houthis – who now get Iranian backing – offers an opportunity to support the growing Shiite upsurge in these countries.

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In addition to what is developing in Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen, Shiite resurgence also is occurring in the Persian Gulf states of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

In effect, the Yemeni conflict has become a proxy war between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia and could erupt across the Arabian peninsula and spread throughout the Middle East.

This development has been manifesting itself for some time in Lebanon in which the Saudis have pushed to back newly elected Prime Minister Saad Hariri against his opposition led by Hezbollah, which is under the influence of Iran and Syria.

Also, while most of the Syrian population is Sunni, President Bashar Assad is Alawite, which is closely aligned with the Shiites.

The Sunni-Shiite battle for Yemen ultimately will determine who controls access to the mouth of the strategic Red Sea and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb as well as the Suez Canal and Red Sea and Indian Ocean sea lanes.

The Strait of Bab el-Mandeb is particularly strategic in that it is at the mouth of the Red Sea, which opens to the Gulf of Aden and then the Arabian Sea.

As a consequence, the concern no longer is just over control of oil fields but the vital shipping lanes to transport oil and other trade.

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