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U.S. military experts say the "most likely flashpoint" in Eurasia has become the Caucasus, a strategic location grabbing intelligence attention because of the prospect of a border war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a conflict that not only could draw in Russia but also Islamic interests there, according to a report from Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.
U.S. Director for National Intelligence Dennis Blair, in an annual threat assessment, called unresolved conflicts in the Caucasus "the most likely flashpoint" in the Eurasia region.
"Moscow's expanded military presence in and political-economic ties to Georgia's separatist regions and sporadic low-level violence increase the risk of miscalculation or overreaction leading to renewed fighting," Blair said.
At the same time, Blair has warned of the likelihood of another Armenian-Azerbaijani war over the disputed, largely Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh region inside Azerbaijan.
He attributes the increase in tensions to the recent U.S.-backed effort to get Armenia and Turkey to re-establish diplomatic relations.
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"Although there has been progress in the past year toward Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, this has affected the delicate relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and increases the risk of a renewed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh," Blair said.
Ironically, it was the U.S. which began two years ago to work with Turkey and Armenia to re-establish diplomatic relations, culminating in the signing last October of two protocols that normalized their relationship after centuries at odds with each other.
At the same time, the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement has caused a serious breach between Azerbaijan and the U.S. and has all but ruptured relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey.
This rapprochement also has pushed Azerbaijan closer to Russia, which similarly encouraged the historic Armenian-Turkish diplomatic thaw with the ulterior motive of winning over Azerbaijan as a source of oil for its South Stream pipeline project. It worked.
Azerbaijan, which condemns the agreements between Armenia and Turkey, is concerned that the recognition will discourage Armenia from finding a compromise solution to Nagorno-Karabakh.
While any military attacks appeared slim prior to the agreements, events since then have altered the U.S. intelligence community's outlook, and there now is concern there could be renewed war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The belated concerns on the part of the U.S. intelligence community of recognizing the unresolved conflicts in the Caucasus as a military flashpoint have been reported for nearly two years by the G2 Bulletin.
That worry about a flashpoint stems from the fact that Russia is reasserting itself in the Caucasus to form a buffer between its borders and the rising level of radical Islam, especially in the North Caucasus.
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