Diplomatic 'success' may backfire on Obama

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TBILISI, Georgia – The "success" of Turkey's diplomatic recognition of Armenia after almost a century of animosity dating back to the Ottoman Empire may backfire on the U.S., analysts have said in a report from Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.

The result could be, security experts agree, a dramatic lessening of influence on the part of the U.S. and the European Union in the critical South Caucasus and Central Asia regions.

That's because the new relationship between Turkey and Armenia is having devastating effects on Turkey's relationship with Armenia's arch-rival, Azerbaijan, on which Ankara relies for a major source of its oil and natural gas.

Armenia and Turkey resumed diplomatic relations and reopened their border after almost a century of opposition stemming from the mass killing of tens of thousands of Armenians from 1915 to 1918 by the Ottoman Empire. Modern Turkey emerged from the Ottoman Empire into a secular state after World War I.

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In one sense, the U.S. and EU may have outdone themselves in pressing Turkey to normalize relations with Armenia which has a separate, deep-seated dispute with Azerbaijan over its Karabakh region.

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Karabakh is an enclave of predominantly Armenian heritage inside Azerbaijan that seeks to join with Armenia.

Now Turkey, even though it has recognized Armenia diplomatically and reopened border crossings, remains committed to ending the Armenian occupation of Karabakh.

"Azerbaijan's territorial integrity is as important for Turkey as its own," said Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. "Turkey will continue to advocate Azerbaijan's rights at every diplomatic stage."

Security analysts view the current rupture in the longstanding strategic partnership between Turkey and Azerbaijan as a serious mistake by the U.S., EU and Turkey.

"This geopolitical miscalculation on the part of Turkish, EU and U.S. officials, all of whom have actively pushed for a one-sided normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations without the consideration of Azerbaijan's interests and the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, will see a boomerang effect," according to Fariz Ismailzade of the think-tank Jamestown Foundation.

"This partnership (between Turkey and Azerbaijan) has been the backbone of East-West energy and its future transportation corridors, security, political and geostrategic balance in the region as well as the overall Turkish or Western entrance into the Caspian region," Ismailzade said.

In recent weeks, the Turkish-Azerbaijani split also has had a serious impact on Turkey's long-range security goal of becoming an energy hub for Europe.

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev recently refused to accept Turkish President Abdullah Gul's invitation to attend the recent U.N. conference on Istanbul on "Alliance of Civilizations."

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