Russian-Afghan war looms

Russia could launch a "preventive" military attack on fundamentalist Moslem forces in Afghanistan, which are reported to be massing along the border shared with several former Soviet republics, according to official Russian sources.

Igor Ivanov, Russian foreign minister, stated that Russia could attack bases of the Islamic fundamentalist group Taliban should there be a "threat" to any of Russia's Central Asian allies. The Taliban movement controls most of Afghanistan.

The report was carried by the Voice of Russia World Service, the official broadcasting service of the Russian government.

Ivanov made his remarks in the context of a new treaty signed this week that allows for "preventive strikes if there is aggression or the possibility of aggression against any signatories to the agreement," according to the broadcast. An attack or the threat of attack against one of the members of the treaty agreement would be considered as hostility toward all.

The so-called "Minsk Memorandum" was signed by Russia, Belarus, Armenia and the Central Asian republics of Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. All the signatories to the agreement are part of the larger Commonwealth of Independent States, successor entity to the former Soviet Union.

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have both suffered from attacks by Islamic fundamentalist guerrillas. Since their independence from the U.S.S.R., Tajikistan fought a prolonged civil war with insurgents who received support from neighboring Afghanistan.

The defense treaty among the six nations is part of a larger set of agreements among the former Soviet republics. Five of the six signatories to the collective security treaty have joined into a closer political and economic union.

Russia, Belarus, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have transformed their already existing customs union into a "supranational" grouping likened to the European Union.

The president of Kazakstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, referred to the new union as a "milestone," describing it as a "Eurasian customs union." The purpose of the new union is to lower barriers to economic integration, and provide for the common defense of these former Soviet republics.

Nazarbayev's comparison of the "Eurasian customs union" to the European Union does not do justice to the new arrangement. While the EU is split among factions and there is no single dominant state, language or culture, the new Eurasian union -- as well as the entire Commonwealth of Independent States itself -- is dominated by one powerful member: Russia. Russian language, culture and technological achievements provide a common bond among the former Soviet republics.

With the exception of the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, each of the former Soviet republics is dependent upon Moscow and has formalized that dependency in one way or another.

An agreement that Putin says is "looking to the future," the "Minsk Memorandum" not only ties its members closer to Moscow, but adds a significant element of instability to international relations.

The "Minsk Memorandum" claims for its signatories the right to attack if a "possibility of aggression" exists. While today the fundamentalist Islamic Taliban is targeted for possible attack, the question will inevitably arise: Who else might be deemed a threat -- deserving the next "preventive" assault?