Israel puts on negotiating brakes

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There is growing resistance in Israel to rejoining peace talks with Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority, says STRATFOR, the global intelligence company.

The leaders of Israel and the PA have yet to agree on the preconditions necessary to bring both sides to the negotiating table. Now the international community is attempting to guide Israel and the Palestinians to return to peace talks. Despite a growing international consensus, Israel presently has no motive to accept a cease-fire plan.

Egypt and Jordan have coauthored a widely supported plan to bring about a cease-fire and revive negotiations. The plan outlines a step-by-step process to end violence, rebuild confidence and restart peace talks, reported Haaretz April 19. Tel Aviv first dismissed the proposal and then recanted, requesting its modification. Moreover, Israel has set an end to Palestinian violence as a precondition to resuming negotiations.

Former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell issued an interim report that was printed in Haaretz May 6. An international commission chaired by Mitchell was established last October to determine the cause of the Palestinian uprising. Mitchell's report discussed the breakdown of the peace process and included a detailed list of events that caused the outbreak of violence. The report concluded with a number of recommendations that resemble those of the Jordanian-Egyptian proposal.

Israel will not rush to the bargaining table because Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon believes he is in the superior position. Sharon's military campaign against the Palestinian leadership appears to be working. Since the violence began in September, 78 of those killed were Israelis and 426 were Palestinians.

While Sharon's military campaign has so far been successful, it has not sufficiently reduced the threat of attack from Palestinian radicals. But Israeli intelligence has been able to exploit internal Palestinian rifts, allowing military action against radical Palestinian leaders.

For instance, Iyad Hardan, a leader of the military wing of Islamic Jihad, was blown up while in a telephone booth in front of a West Bank jail April 5. Hardan was reportedly coordinating to unite members of Force 17, the Tanzim militias, Hamas and Islamic Jihad so that they could conduct coordinated attacks.

Sharon's only comments occurred during a speech in Kfar Maccabiah in Ramat Gan. He said, "Sometimes we will announce what we did; sometimes we will not announce what we did," reported the Jerusalem Post April 6.

Furthermore, Ahmed Khalil Assad was killed May 5 by Israeli soldiers, according to the Associated Press. Assad was a local leader of the Islamic Jihad. Although Israel did not confirm it was responsible, the killing is similar to recent pinpoint attacks carried out by Israeli forces.

Targeting and killing these groups and leaders has prevented an extensive terror campaign against Israel. Each Palestinian faction has also been infiltrated by Israeli intelligence, which uses information to foment distrust among the groups, preventing coordinated action.

Despite Israel's success, the Palestinians have yet to succumb to Tel Aviv's military pressure.

Israeli forces seized a shipment of arms destined for Palestinian fighters May 5. Ahmed Jibril, leader of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, confirmed the arms were one of four shipments organized by his group, reported al-Hayat.

Furthermore, Mahmud Abu Saud called Agence France-Presse May 8, claiming to lead an organization called Hezbollah Palestine. He said his organization had killed a settler who was found dead in the West Bank. The group has also taken credit for a bombing May 7 that killed four, the death of two Israeli teen-age settlers May 9 and a bomb that killed two Romanians May 10.

As well, radical Palestinian leaders now have another international sponsor. Iran last month brought together a number of radical Palestinian leaders from Hamas, Hezbollah and the Islamic Jihad in order to reassert itself in Palestinian affairs. Iran can improve the military effectiveness of militant Palestinian groups, which would undermine the remaining authority of Yasser Arafat.

To get back to the bargaining table, the Palestinians need something with which to bargain. The PA's grand strategy requires it remain relevant. Arafat is doing this by maintaining a certain level of violence without provoking the Israeli military into a greater show of force.

Sharon is working to break the back of the Palestinian military to gain a greater level of security for Israel. Barring the withdrawal of U.S. support for Israel or Egyptian withdrawal from the Camp David Accords, Israel's main motive will be to eliminate offensive Palestinian military capability. When Sharon believes Israel has succeeded militarily or that the Palestinians have collapsed upon themselves he will return to negotiations.

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