News about <![CDATA[investments]]> News about en-us <![CDATA[REIT Yield as a Predictor of Future Returns]]> reit-dividend-yieldby Geoff Considine The yield of an asset is a key component of predicting future returns.  This is true for the yield on Treasury bonds as well as the dividend yield for stock indexes.  The yield on aggregate bond indexes is considered a good proxy for future expected returns.  The dividend yield of broad stock indexes has been [...]]]> <![CDATA[“Reform-Oriented Emerging Economies”]]>

Financial Times author, Ruchir Sharma, says that money flows into the emerging markets are more discriminate this decade. As the printing presses continue to hum, however, the question remains: where will the money go? 

]]> <![CDATA[REITs Are Not Cheap But Not Really That Bad Either]]> faber-reits-052013

REITs have been the best performing major asset class since the market bottom in 2009, up over 200%.   What are the current drivers of REITs saying now across trend, yield curve, and valuation? 

]]> <![CDATA[Four ways to avoid bad decisions during a bull run]]> Bull and bear statues are pictured outside Frankfurt's stock exchangeBy John Wasik (Reuters) – Is the Dow’s movement above 15,000 or the record close of the S&P 500 Index last week a buy signal? They may not mean anything, but most market watchers believe the rise is talismanic. Despite the lure of recent market gains, there’s often no pattern to investment results. To avoid [...]]]> <![CDATA[May 20, 2013: New Features: FolioInvesting One-Click, Portfolio Dividend & Static Portfolio Change]]> historical-yield-052013

We introduce several new features including email attachment for FolioInvesting portfolio allocations, portfolio dividend data and dynamically changing a static portfolio while maintaining historical performance data. 

]]> <![CDATA[Social Security Earnings Penalty?]]> BY MATTHEW ILLIAN A good deal of misinformation is published about a so-called Social Security earnings penalty. Many are led to believe that if they earn money while collecting Social Security, they’ll lose some of this benefit forever. Retirees should ignore all talk about a “penalty,” which only discourages prudent cost-benefit analysis. The Social Security retirement [...]]]> <![CDATA[Tom Dorsey: ‘ETF Alchemy’ Is The Future]]> etf-image

Where is the ETF industry headed?  Tom Dorsey answers in this Q&A with IndexUniverse. IU.com:In the first four months of 2013, asset gathering for U.S. ETFs was in the neighborhood of $64 billion, and on pace to beat 2012’s record of $188 billion.

]]> <![CDATA[The Meaning of the New Highs in the S&P500]]> Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange following its reopeningby Geoff Considine The S&P500 has recently been hitting new all-time highs, which would seem to suggest that the economy is recovering and that the U.S. economy is back on track.  The story does not look quite so rosy when you account for inflation, as Mark Hulbert has recently noted.  The current level of the S&P500 is, in [...]]]> <![CDATA[Tax Rate Reminder]]>

From Wesley Gray at Turnkey Analyst comes a reminder about tax rates.  Tax rates are going up, and how your investment is taxed may be as important as how it performs.  

]]> <![CDATA[Amazon Sales Tax Collection: Coming To Your State Soon!]]> BY DAVID JOHN MAROTTA In “Marketplace Fairness Act Adds Automation to Tax Confusion” I wrote: Amazon is currently collecting sales tax for purchases shipped to nine states. It will begin collecting sales tax on purchases for Virginia in September 2013. The nine states Amazon is currently collecting sales tax are Arizona, California, Kansas, Kentucky, New York, North [...]]]> <![CDATA[From the Archives: Life Expectancy at Retirement]]>

Source: The Economist, via Greg Mankiw. Americans, as well as citizens of many other advanced nations, now spend about twice as many years in retirement as they did a generation or two ago.  

]]> <![CDATA[Investment Risk Re-imagined]]> risk

Risk is fundamental to investing, but no one can agree what it is.  Modern Portfolio Theory defines it as standard deviation.  Tom Howard of AthenaInvest thinks investment risk is something completely different.  

]]> <![CDATA[Going to alternatives for yield]]> dividend-coinsBy John Wasik May 10 (Reuters) – If you’re willing to take on more risk, it’s a good time to move beyond corporate and government bonds in the incredibly challenging search for yield. While attention has been on the record-setting stock market – the DowJones Industrial Average closed above the symbolic 15,000 on Tuesday and kept climbing – [...]]]> <![CDATA[PIMCO’s Big Picture: Dialing Down Risk]]> pimco-el-erianPIMCO’s CEO Mohamed A. El-Erian published an article on Barrons.com that discussed the PIMCO’s global investing outlook. To summarize:  Views for the next three-to-five years:  • In Europe, with the lack of a comprehensive resolution, the collapse of the single currency will remain conceivable though not a dominant probability. The more immediate threat is a [...]]]> <![CDATA[May 13, 2013: Preparing To Take A Loss]]> SPY_Bollinger_Band_50_2.5_05132013

Preparing for a loss in the coming correction: we would rather do it proactively and getting psychologically prepared before it happens.

]]> <![CDATA[Bucket List: A Bucket for the Unknown]]> BY AUSTIN FEY  Not long ago, I splurged and bought my favorite ice cream as a treat after a long week. It sat in my freezer for the right moment to enjoy its sugary goodness. Finally I opened my freezer and found, to my horror, my treat had turned to mush. Why? My refrigerator and freezer [...]]]> <![CDATA[Five Red Flags You Picked The Wrong Financial Advisor]]> BY DAVID JOHN MAROTTA  Libby Kane has an interesting article entitled “Five Signs You Picked The Wrong Financial Advisor” which fits well with our “Ten Questions to Ask a Financial Advisor.” Here are her five warning signs: 1. She Isn’t Certified. In other words, you should value comprehensive wealth management. 2. He Offers to Manage Your Money for [...]]]> <![CDATA[From the Archives: Forecasting, Schmorecasting]]> weather-forecast

We’ve written about the uselessness of forecasting in the past and even cited James Montier’s wonderful piece, The Seven Sins of Fund Management.  This citation comes from Mebane Faber’s World Beta blog.  Montier writes: The two most common biases are over-optimism and overconfidence. Overconfidence refers to a situation whereby people are su...

]]> <![CDATA[Dare to Prick The Bond Bubble? Rates Will Stay Low]]> zerohedge reported the CNBC’s interview with DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach. It summarized very well why bonds are not at the peak of their bubbles:  Adding to Gundlach’s view, we see four potential reasons that investors should not be ‘hoping’ for a bond selloff… 1) rates are low, and will stay low since The Feed needs to hold [...]]]> <![CDATA[Preparing to Retire – Wealth Management Carnival #12]]> BY AUSTIN FEY  Today’s carnival is all about retirement: saving for it, where to open accounts, how much to withdraw once you do retire, and more. Read on for more details! A Fresh Perspective on Employer Retirement MatchesEmily presents Should You Count Your Employer’s Contribution into Your Retirement Savings Percentage? posted atEvolving Personal Finance.“If you get an employer [...]]]> <![CDATA[What Happens in A Nation of Renters?]]> New housing construction is seen in Darnestown Marylandby Geoff Considine Time magazine has a new article on changes in the home ownership in America.  The article, titled A Nation of Renters: Should We Be Worried That Fewer Americans Own Homes?, explores the substantial decline in the fraction of Americans who own their own homes.  I have followed this issue for quite some time and the [...]]]> <![CDATA[Clueless: The Stock Market is not the Economy]]> gdp-economy

Morgan Housel has a fun article at Motley Fool with a possible explanation for why investors are so clueless.  His argument, essentially, is that investors confuse the stock market with the economy.  If the economy is bad, they assume the stock market must be bad too.  Although it’s certainly true that many investors are confused [...]

]]> <![CDATA[Essential Financial Advice for College Graduates]]> BY MEGAN RUSSELL  My husband began his last undergraduate exams ever today. He graduates from the University of Virginia in a little over two weeks. As I approach this time with him from the other side of the ceremony, I find myself reflecting about how college graduates face a particular set of financial and life planning [...]]]> <![CDATA[Two ways to play the retail rebound]]> retail-storesBy John Wasik (Reuters) – With consumer stocks blazing this year, it makes sense for investors to focus on retailers as the U.S. economy continues an inchworm-like recovery. But retail is a fickle business. And trying to guess which companies will survive over the long-term is a dangerous game. Instead of buying individual stocks, you’d be better off owning an [...]]]> <![CDATA[How to Find a Financial Advisor, Step by Step (PBS Newshour)]]> BY DAVID JOHN MAROTTA  There’s a great article by Paul Solman of the PBS Newshour entitled, “How to Find a Financial Advisor, Step by Step” which reads in part: Zvi suggested contacting the NAPFA, the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors, for someone in your area. He also recommended his own online library of resources for getting started with [...]]]> <![CDATA[May 6, 2013: High Dividend ETF Portfolio Construction]]> retirement-income

One can use a tactical strategy to construct a high dividend ETF portfolio by carefully including a well selected candidate ETFs with high yields. A 6% to 7% yield portfolio is possible. 

]]> <![CDATA[From the Archives: Psychology That Drives Bull Markets]]> survey

The Leuthold Group’s Doug Ramsey on the psychology that drives bull markets: Cashing in on bull markets is not a matter of waiting for everything to line up, anyway.  There must be a set of intellectually appealing bear arguments keeping some players on the sidelines…it is these same players who will eventually drive prices even [...]

]]> <![CDATA[Highest Yield Stock ETFs]]> highest_yield_stock_etfsIn the process of finding stock ETFs that have highest yields and enough trading volume, we came up with the following ETFs:    The mortgage REIT companies have utilized high leverage (usually 6 or 7 to 1) to amplify commercial or residential MBS. Furthermore business development companies (BDCs) have done well so far. We are [...]]]> <![CDATA[Financial Repression Primer]]> financial-repression

Research Affliliates published a very nice primer on financial repression on Advisor Perspectives.  It’s well worth reading to get the lay of the land.  Here’s how they define financial repression: Financial repression refers to a set of governmental policies that keep real interest rates low or negative and regulate or manipulate a c...

]]> <![CDATA[Emerging Market Bonds Back In Favor]]> bond-ranking-052013Emerging market bonds had incurred quite some loss since the beginning of the year to the end of March. Since April, however, it has climbed out of hole. In fact, it is now ranked highest among all other fixed income bond segments in our trend score ranking table (see MyPlanIQ 360 Degree Market View for more details):  [...]]]> <![CDATA[The Defensive Sector Led Stock Market Rally Continued]]> defensive-sectors-052013It’s been a while that this stock market rally has been led by often considered ‘defensive’ sectors such as consumer staples, health care and utilities, all of which occupied the top 3 trend score ranking table:  Assets Class Symbols 05/01Trend Score 04/24Trend Score Direction Consumer Staples XLP 10.98% 11.42% v Healthcare XLV 10.85% 12.82% v [...]]]> <![CDATA[Spring cleaning for your portfolio]]> portfolio-reviewBy John Wasik (Reuters) – Whether you need to invest a tax refund or simply want to see if you’re on track with your investments, spring is a great time to get out the broom. I needed to make a large contribution to my 401(k) to offset some taxes recently, so I took the opportunity [...]]]> <![CDATA[Being a Weather Contrarian]]> weather-forecastby Geoff Considine Every year when the forecasts for the hurricane season are issued, there have been a spate of articles on implications for investors.  This year was no exception.  USA Today reported that U.S. natural gas prices jumped 3% on the basis of a forecast for an active hurricane season in 2013.  It is also common to read that companies are [...]]]> <![CDATA[CPI Inflation Rate Calculator (Experienced vs. Reported)]]> BY DAVID JOHN MAROTTA  In Better to Bank with Cyprus Than the United States? we wrote, “In 1996 the government began measuring inflation differently, lowering the reported number significantly.” For financial planners, getting accurate information on inflation and cost of living increases is very important. That data is used through the planning process. And yet that data [...]]]> <![CDATA[Sappi Fine Paper North America Continues Strong Record of Capital Investments in the Coated Paper Business]]> <![CDATA[April 29, 2013: Goal Based Financial Planning And Investing]]> financial-planning

Goal based financial planning helps you to classify your needs into several categories. You then setup your investment portfolios based on these goals. 

]]> <![CDATA[Limit Your Investment In Gold and Silver To Less Than 3% of your Portfolio]]> BY DAVID JOHN MAROTTA  I receive a number of media requests each day and it is interesting to watch the trends. One of the current trends are questions about physical gold or silver as part of an investment strategy. Gold has a low expected return (about inflation) and a high volatility (much higher than the stock [...]]]> <![CDATA[Three Reasons Medicare Advantage Can Be Called Medicare Dis-Advantage]]> BY MATTHEW ILLIAN  Only a quarter of all Medicare participants have opted to use the private Medicare Advantage (MA) insurance option, and this number is expected to drop drastically over the next four years. As mentioned in an earlier column, the primary reason many choose MA is to minimize their monthly premiums. However, this monthly premium advantage [...]]]> <![CDATA[Closed-end funds provide yield, but at a price]]> closed-end-fundsBy John Wasik (Reuters) – Investors chasing yield in this low-rate environment are jumping into alternative vehicles. That’s helping closed-end income funds stage a comeback. Such funds, which offer a fixed number of shares and are closed to new capital once they start operating, have their attractions, but investors should exercise caution. Expenses for closed-end funds [...]]]> <![CDATA[The Wonders of Momentum]]> momentum saling

Relative strength investors will be glad to know that James Picerno’s Capital Spectator blog has an article on the wonders of momentum.  He discusses the momentum “anomaly” and its history briefly: Momentum is one of the oldest and most persistent anomalies in the financial literature. The tendency of positive or negative returns t...

]]> <![CDATA[IRA Cap Gives Rise to New Funding Strategies]]> BY DAVID JOHN MAROTTA  We wrote about Obama’s fundamentally flawed financial planning model in “Is A $3 Million IRA Sufficient For Retirement?” John Sullivan of AdvisorOne wrote a nice article entitled “IRA Cap Gives Rise to New Funding Strategies” which confirms much of what we advise. It read, “Curbing the growth of retirement plans in a [...]]]> <![CDATA[PBS Frontline Live Chat On Retirement Gamble (401k)]]> 401k-1PBS Frontline featured a show yesterday The Retirement Gamble The live chat today Are You Losing the Retirement Gamble? Live Chat Wed. 2 pm ET FRONTLINE correspondent Martin Smith, producer Marcela Gaviria, 401(k) expert Robert Hiltonsmith, a policy analyst at Demos and Penny Wang, a writer and editor atMoney answered the questions.   ]]> <![CDATA[The Retirement Gamble We’re All Making]]> retirement-401k

Martin Smith, an Emmy-winning correspondent for PBS’Frontline, is worried about his retirement — and yours.
 
In his excellent Frontlinedocumentary airing Tuesday, April 23, on PBS,...

]]> <![CDATA[Your lifetime 401k fees to Wallstreet: $155,000]]> fees

Wall Street has made it far more likely that you will spend at least some of your golden years eating Fancy Feast.
A new Frontline documentary, "The Retirement Gamble," which first aired Tuesday...

]]> <![CDATA[Sudden Surges And Low Volatility Make Covered Call ETFs Less Competitive]]> covered-call-042013The parabolic rises of stock markets have been a headache to covered call writing strategies. The covered call strategy tries to lower volatility and captures income by selling near money near term call options for the underlying funds such as S&P 500 index funds (SPY, VOO or VFINX). This strategy had worked well going into [...]]]> <![CDATA[Financial Literacy: State of the Union in 2013]]> financial-literacyby Geoff Considine April is financial literacy month.  I believe that lack of financial knowledge is one of the most critical problems that our country faces. It is well understood that someone who is illiterate in the traditional sense (reading, writing) is severely handicapped in terms of work and opportunities available to them.  The person who [...]]]> <![CDATA[April 22, 2013: Portfolio Rebalance – Ease of Use]]> folio-one-click0

We review portfolio rebalances for both ETF, mutual fund brokerage accounts as well as 401k accounts. We further show FolioFn's one-click basket rebalance feature. 

]]> <![CDATA[Is A $3 Million IRA Sufficient For Retirement?]]> BY DAVID JOHN MAROTTA  President Obama’s understanding of financial planning is fundamentally flawed. In his latest budget, the chief executive proposed a cap on tax-preferred retirement accounts. An individual’s total balance could not accumulate over $3 million. This total would include the sum balances of a traditional IRA, Roth IRA, 401(k) and defined contribution plans. Obama justified [...]]]> <![CDATA[A Republican senator on climate change: It’s real, we need to fight it]]>

Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski on climate change, the Keystone pipeline, and how technology can make us energy independent.

]]> <![CDATA[Trendless Commodities Are Becoming Trendy]]> commodity-trend-indicator-042013Managed futures or commodity trading advisor (CTA) directed funds have been lackluster for the past 3 years. Most of these funds use trend following strategies to form a long and short portfolio. The dismal performance is an indication of how trendless commodities have behaved.  However, this might start to change. The following shows how commodity [...]]]>