News about <![CDATA[recession]]> News about en-us <![CDATA[Could We Have Had a Severe Recession Without the 2008 Financial Crisis?]]> View the full post at: Could We Have Had a Severe Recession Without the 2008 Financial Crisis?

<![CDATA[Signs The Economy Is Heading Toward Another Recession]]> Related posts:
  1. Signs Point To A Terrible Year Ahead For Stocks [Dow Jones Industrial Average(INDEXDJX:.DJI), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF]
  2. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500: Where The U.S. Stock Market Cycle Is Heading?
  3. Stocks Are Heading Higher Over The Longer-Term [Dow Jones Industrial Average(INDEXDJX:.DJI)]
  4. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Really Showing Signs of Weakness
  5. ISM Non-Manufacturing: Slowest Growth Since January 2010 [Dow Jones Industrial Average(INDEXDJX:.DJI), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF]
<![CDATA[Budget Deficit to Drop to Lowest of Obama's Presidency]]> Jacquelyn Martin/APPresident Obama at his desk in the Oval Office at the White House last Monday, ahead of last week's State of the Union speech. By ANDREW TAYLOR WASHINGTON -- The U.S. budget deficit is set to fall to $514 billion this year, down ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[The New Face of Food Stamps: Working-Age Americans]]> Tamir Kalifa/APMaggie Barcellano sits with her daughter, Zoe, 3, at Barcellano's father's house in Austin, Texas. Barcellano enrolled in the food stamps program to help save up for paramedic training while she works as a home health aide and raises ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[5 Predictions About Your Money and the Economy in 2014]]> Shutterstock/Denis Vrublevski For the last few years, uncertainty has been the overarching theme in finance. We've gone from waiting to see just how many banks would fail and whether a depression was in the cards to wondering how long the recovery ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[Where Is The Employment Recovery?]]> Related posts:
  1. The Truth About The Employment Crisis
  2. Anticipating The December Employment Report
  3. The Truth About Western (Un)Employment
  4. Anticipating The November Employment Report
  5. The Missing Ingredient Of The Economic Recovery
<![CDATA[2014 Stock Market Outlook]]> <![CDATA[2014 Stock Market Outlook]]> <![CDATA[What the Low Stock Market Volatility is Indicating]]> <![CDATA[What the Low Stock Market Volatility is Indicating]]> <![CDATA[6 Ways to Tell if the Market is About to Crash]]> Let's assume you think the stock market is about to stumble, and stumble badly.

How can you see the top coming?

Some argue the top is already staring everyone in the face. The Dow Jones industrials were up 21.15 percent for the year as of Thursday's close, with the Standard & Poor's

<![CDATA[Profit from this Former BDC Returning to BDC Status]]> Business development companies (BDCs) are unique creations of Congress, much like real estate investment trusts (REITs). Both BDCs and REITs are required by law to pay out a high portion of income as dividends to shareholders, in order to receive preferential tax treatment.

As a result, both BDCs and REITs are

<![CDATA[The Economic Depression In Europe Just Keeps Getting Deeper]]> Related posts:
  1. The Economic Slowdown Is Far From Over For Europe
  2. U.S. Retail Depression Is ‘Good News’
  3. The Economic And Financial Systems Of The World Are Breaking Down
  4. New EU Plan Will Make Every Bank Account In Europe Vulnerable To Cyprus-Style Wealth Confiscation
  5. Gerald Celente: We’re Going Into The Greatest Depression
<![CDATA[Weekly Jobless Claims Decline by 10,000 in Latest Week]]> Lynne Sladky/AP By Alister Bull WASHINGTON -- The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits declined largely as expected last week as the impact of a California computer glitch worked its way out of the report. Initial claims ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[Food Stamp Cuts Kick In as Congress Continues Debate]]> Spencer Platt/Getty Images By MARY CLARE JALONICK WASHINGTON -- More than 47 million Americans who receive food stamps will see their benefits go down starting Friday, just as Congress begins negotiations on further cuts to the program. Beginning ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[3 Reasons TrueBlue Should Initiate a Dividend]]> To say that it has been a good year for the shareholders of TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), a company in the $29 billion demand labor segment of the $100 billion staffing industry in the United States, would be an understatement.

For 2013, the stock price of TrueBlue has soared more

<![CDATA[Poll: Half of Older Workers Delay Retirement Plans]]> Manuel Balce Ceneta/APGraphic designer Tom Sadowski, 65, who delayed his retirement, works from home in Sterling, Va. By MATT SEDENSKY CHICAGO -- Stung by a recession that sapped investments and home values, but expressing widespread job ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[White House Open to a Short-Term Increase in Debt Limit]]> AP By DONNA CASSATA WASHINGTON -- Senate Democrats intend to introduce legislation by midweek to raise the nation's debt limit without the type of unrelated conditions Republicans have said they intend to seek, officials said Monday, as the White ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[Signs Of A Recession Ahead?]]> Related posts:
  1. More Evidence of A Cyclical Recession Ahead
  2. Economy: Why A Recession Within The Next 12 Months Is Inevitable
  3. 12 Recession Indicators That Are Flashing Red
  4. Is The U.S. Economy Headed Towards Recession?
  5. Economy: An Indicator That Is Close To Recession-Like Levels
<![CDATA[Recession 2013: The Signs Don't Look Good]]> You won'thear any talk about a Recession 2013 from the president, or from whoever happens to be the next Fed Head, or from anyone of either party in Congress. You won't hear about it on the news, either.

Listen to them and you'll hear that the economy's turning a corner. "Growth has returned... unemployment is falling... the markets are at all-time highs... things are looking up all over."

What a relief, right?

<![CDATA[Fed Sticks to Stimulus, Worried About Growth Soft Spots]]> Charles Dharapak/APFederal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke By Pedro da Costa and Alister Bull WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it would continue buying bonds at an $85 billion monthly pace for now, surprising financial ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[Morgan Stanley CEO: Odds of Another Financial Crash 'Close to Zero']]> James Gorman/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesMorgan Stanley CEO James Gorman. With the five-year anniversary of the financial meltdown just around the corner, many still worry it could happen all over again. But James Gorman isn't one of them. Gorman, ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[Boomerang Kids: When Should They Move Out For Good?]]> Greg M. Cooper/AP There's a generation gap in opinions about how long adults should live with their parents post-college. A new survey by Coldwell Banker Real Estate and psychotherapist Dr. Robi Ludwig, a consultant for the company, shows that ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[Why Americans Are Driving Less -- a Lot Less]]> Getty Images/Flickr Open By JOAN LOWY WASHINGTON -- Driving in America has stalled, leading researchers to ask: Is the national love affair with the automobile over? After rising for decades, total vehicle use in the U.S. -- the collective miles ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[The 5% recovery: Why Most Americans Are Still in Recession]]> Mark Lennihan/AP By Jeff Cox How strong the economic recovery has been since the Great Recession ended in 2009 probably depends on viewpoint. For those in the top 5 percent of wealth, the recovery has been pretty good. As for the other 95 percent, ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[Are You Prepared For An Economic Collapse?]]>

Related posts:

  1. 17 Signs That Most Americans Will Be Wiped Out By The Coming Economic Collapse
  2. Barack Obama: 24 Statistics That Show How Much The Current President Has Messed Up Our Economy
  3. 77 Percent Of All Americans Live Paycheck To Paycheck At Least Part Of The Time
  4. Why The Next Great Financial Crash Is Approaching
<![CDATA[Consumer Debt Drops, Continuing Post-Recession Trend]]> Scott Eells/Bloomberg via Getty Images NEW YORK -- Americans trimmed their overall indebtedness in the latest quarter, continuing a nearly five-year trend as mortgage balances fell further, data released Wednesday from the Federal Reserve Bank of New ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[An Obamacare Bailout: A Struggling City's Best New Budget Tool]]> Call it an "Obamacare Bailout" - while millions of Americans look for ways to opt out of Obamacare, broke Detroit is trying to get its residents signed up as soon as possible.

You see, Detroit has grossly over-pledged its benefits, pensions and fully-funded health care plans to thousands of public sector employees for decades, while its tax revenue dwindled.

Now Detroit - after filing for Chapter 9 bankruptcy July 18 - can't deliver on its pricey promises.

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<![CDATA[Can The Fed Prevent The Next Recession?]]> View the full post at: Can The Fed Prevent The Next Recession?

<![CDATA[The Yield Curve Speaks]]> yield-curve-10yr-note-3month-tbill-1962-2013

The yield curve is a measurement of the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates.  When long-term rates are high relative to short-term rates, the economy is typically strong.  

<![CDATA[Recession Watch 2013: Term Spread Probability Series]]>
With the weak economic recovery lagging through its fourth continuous year, its sensible to start looking for clues, however so slight, of the possibility of oncoming recession.

First, let’s remember that while the NBER makes the official call of both the “peak” of a business cycle expansion and the “trough” of the subsequent recession, their officiating is delayed to say the least.

For a more “real time” assessment of the prospects of recession, various methods of number crunching have been formulated to distill out a basic probability assessment from several underlying macro series data sets.

One popular statistical method is the yield-curve based “Term Spread” probability method.

Spearheaded by economist Professor Arturo Estrella of the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, this method derives a probability of recession from the spread between long and short yields (10-year and 3-month) and is by all accounts the standard for recession probability forecasting.

The latest data indicates that the probability for recession is remains elevated with a January 2014 probability (the probability that there will be a recession by that date) of 4.4%.

Keep in mind that a positive indication using this method would require this probability to reach 30% so while the probability is clearly rising, the current probability is still quite low.]]>
<![CDATA[Recession Watch 2013: Piger Probability Series]]>
Last year I reported on a relatively new recession probability indicator (… the “markov switching” series recently introduced to the Fed FRED/Blytic) that was giving a pretty clear, though preliminary, indication of probable recession.

While I noted that the series was highly revised, I pointed out that even taking into account the revisions, the series was giving a recession signal since using just the "maximum" reported values (values that had been all been revised lower) the reporting 20% probability was very unusual and typically associated to oncoming trouble.

In the latest release, the April data (... there is a reporting lag) indicates that the probability of recession has increased to 3.08% while the standout August 2012 value (that initially peaked interest in this series) has now been revised to 1.22%.

It's important to note though that the point of my prior post was to highlight just the "maximum" reported values and while the latest release revises down August's 19.6% and reports an additional low probability for the latest month, it makes no difference... the fact remains that this series has NOT given such a significant over estimate of recession without there being a probable recession ahead.

Now clearly, there could always be a first time... this is just estimated data... but the prior 19.6% reported figure clearly argues for following this series very closely in the coming months.  

<![CDATA[Recession Watch 2013]]> recession

Every time the market corrects, pundits start looking for a recession.  It’s not a crazy idea, since the S&P 500 is a leading indicator of the economy.  Recessions are typically led by market corrections, but market corrections have also forecast ten of the last two recessions. 

<![CDATA[Economic Recovery: Which States Are Bouncing Back Fastest?]]> David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released an analysis of which states have done the best at recovering jobs lost in the 2008 recession and which are still struggling. On the surface, ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: May 2013]]> Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Report on Business for the manufacturing sector indicating that manufacturing activity slumped into contraction territory in May for only the second time since August of 2008.

At 49.0 the purchasing manager’s composite index (PMI) declined 3.35% since April and dropped 6.67% below the level seen a year earlier giving an indication of slowing manufacturing activity for the third consecutive month.

Respondent assessments appear mixed with some sounding a cautious tone while others remain more upbeat:

"Customers are anticipating resin price decreases and holding back orders." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
"Slight uptick in overall business but not substantial." (Textile Mills)

"Government spending has tightened, which has moved out program awards and caused some reduction in force." (Computer & Electronic Products)

"Market outlook is relatively flat, with some promise of raw materials inflation relaxing." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

"General economy seems sluggish and pensive. Buyers are not buying much beyond lead times." (Fabricated Metal Products)

"Downturn in European and Chinese markets is having a negative effect on our business." (Machinery)

"We are having a difficult time hiring skilled employees." (Transportation Equipment)

"Business continues to increase, but over the past 20 days we have seen the trend flatten." (Furniture & Related Products)

"Market was holding strong until mid-month — then softened." (Wood Products)

"Decline in sales for FYQ2 over same period a year ago due to softer demand [in] both domestic and exports." (Chemical Products)

<![CDATA[Americans Far from Regaining Wealth Lost Amid Recession]]> Alex Wong/Getty Images By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER WASHINGTON -- The average U.S. household has a long way to go to recover the wealth it lost to the Great Recession, a report by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis concluded Thursday. The typical ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[Extended Unemployment Benefits Don't Discourage Job Seeking: Study]]> Getty Images By Mark Koba, Senior Editor Despite arguments to the contrary, giving unemployed Americans extended jobless benefits of up to 99 weeks didn't prevent them from taking jobs, according a new report. Released last month through the ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[Balance Sheet Recessions Are Really Nominal Income Recessions]]> I recently lamented the Fed’s ongoing dereliction of duty as seen in the sustained declined of households’ expected nominal income growth: In that post, I noted this observed decline was problematic for two reasons: (1) current nominal spending decisions are influenced by expected nominal income growth and (2) past nominal debt contracts were based on [...]

View the full post at: Balance Sheet Recessions Are Really Nominal Income Recessions

<![CDATA[Sticky Wages Really do Explain the Recent Recession]]> From a study by Mary Daly and Bart Hobijn at the San Francisco Fed: Although our model simulations are not intended to match the data, they are remarkably consistent with data on both individual level wage changes and the dynamics of unemployment and wage growth observed for the U.S. since the 2007 recession. To show [...]

View the full post at: Sticky Wages Really do Explain the Recent Recession

<![CDATA[Investing in Wisdom]]> <![CDATA[Investing in Wisdom]]> <![CDATA[Comparing Unemployment During the Great Depression and the Great Recession]]> Barry Eichengreen’s and Tim Hatton’s January 1988 paper entitled “Interwar Unemployment in International Perspective” is a useful starting point for any effort to compare unemployment during the Great Depression and the Great Recession. It is useful to begin by recognizing three related cautions that the authors make in that paper. First, the modern sense of [...]

View the full post at: Comparing Unemployment During the Great Depression and the Great Recession

<![CDATA[The Stockman’s big swinging whip]]> <![CDATA[S&P 500 Hits Record High, Beating 2007 Mark]]> Richard Drew/AP Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday. The Standard & Poor's 500 index closed at a record high Thursday, beating the mark it set in October 2007, but the index is still shy of its all-time trading high of ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[Marc Faber: "I Am Sure Governments Will One Day Take Away 20-30% Of My Wealth"]]>

We cautioned readers in 2011 that in a broke world in which the ridiculously named "muddle-through" has miserably failed, a global wealth tax seeking to expropriate some 30% of all financial assets is coming. As a reminder, back then we said that "all attempts to eliminate the excess debt have failed, and for now even the Fed's relentless pursuit of ...

<![CDATA[Cyprus Bank-Deposit Tax Sends World Markets Tumbling]]> (Pavlos Vrionides/AP) Customers line-up Saturday to use an ATM machine outside of Bank of Cyprus branch in southern port city of Limassol on Saturday. By PAN PYLAS LONDON -- Stocks around the world fell sharply Monday as investors gave their initial ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[Stock Market Gains, Economic Recovery Boost U.S. Dollar]]> Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has pledged to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future, which could threaten the dollar's recent rally. (Carolyn Kaster/AP)By Wanfeng Zhou NEW YORK -- The stars are aligning for U.S. dollar bulls. For ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[Investing in Leisure and Recreation]]> <![CDATA[Investing in Leisure and Recreation]]> <![CDATA[Should You Be Worried About a Bond Market Crash?]]> Talk of a bond market crash has been building for months, and not just among obscure financial bloggers.

Articles sounding the alarm about a bond market crash have appeared time and again in many mainstream publications.

Recent headlines like "Danger Lurks Inside the Bond Boom" (The Wall Street Journal), "How Banks Could Get Blown Away by Bond Bubble" (Fortune), and "Beware the Bond Bubble in 2013" (CNNMoney) have raised concern among investors.

Here's the problem: Interest rates are at historic lows. That makes bond prices relatively high.

There's pretty much nowhere left for rates to go but up. That might be good for buyers of bonds in the future, but terrible for those who hold bonds stuck at low rates.

Bond funds, a favorite of conservative investors, would get hit particularly hard as their existing holdings would rapidly start to lose value.

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