News about <![CDATA[underemployment]]> News about en-us <![CDATA[Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration April 2013]]>
Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed improved in April  while still remaining distressed by historic standards.

Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more declined to 4.353 million or 37.4% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment declined to 17.5 weeks and the average stay on unemployment declined to 36.5 weeks.

Looking at the charts below (click for super interactive versions) you can see that today’s sorry situation far exceeds even the conditions seen during the double-dip recessionary period of the early 1980s, long considered by economists to be the worst period of unemployment since the Great Depression.



]]> <![CDATA[The 10 States with the Most People Living on the Edge of Financial Ruin]]> DailyFinance.com: America's image is that of a place where anyone can grow up to be president, and even a college dropout can found a multibillion-dollar empire. But one need only look at our finances to see not everyone gets out of the gate on equal footing. ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[On The Margin: Total Unemployment December 2012]]> Today’s Employment Situation report showed that in December “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers went flat at 14.4% while the traditionally reported unemployment rate also went flat at a revised 7.8%.

The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of “unemployed” (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively “on the margin” either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply unemployed and no longer looking for work.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers “marginally attached” workers (including discouraged workers) and persons who have settled for part time employment to be “underutilized” labor.

The broadest view of unemployment would include both traditionally unemployed workers and all other underutilized workers.

To calculate the “total” rate of unemployment we would simply use this larger group rather than the smaller and more restrictive “unemployed” group used in the traditional unemployment rate calculation.

]]> <![CDATA[Financially on Track by 30? For Too Many, It's a Pipe Dream]]> DailyFinance.com: The big 3-0: For many people, turning 30 means being solidly in the adult world in a tangible way -- whether that includes getting married or finding a long-term partner, having children, buying a home, or achieving career and financial goals. But ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[Highest U.S. Underemployment Rates: Illinois, California and Michigan]]> Unemployment has been slipping, according to a new U.S. Labor Department report Friday. But what about underemployment? According to a new Gallup poll released Friday, national underemployment averaged 19% last year, and Illinois, California and Michigan had the highest rates.

Continue reading Highest U.S. Underemployment Rates: Illinois, California and Michigan

Highest U.S. Underemployment Rates: Illinois, California and Michigan originally appeared on DailyFinance on Fri, 04 Mar 2011 18:30:00.

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]]> <![CDATA[The Skinny on Unemployment]]>

Did you believe unemployment dropped from 9.8 to 9% in one month? Neither did I. Here is an article you should read suggesting 10.3% and here's a graph for fun Remember, U3 is not the broadest measure of unemployment/underemployment, U6 is and it's nearly double U3 -I wish we had a similar graph for U6.Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively
]]> <![CDATA[Gallup Poll: How Underemployment Hurts the Economy]]> Americans who are unemployed or underemployed are three times as likely to fall behind on their bills as those who are fully employed, according to a Gallup Poll released Tuesday.

Continue reading Gallup Poll: How Underemployment Hurts the Economy

Gallup Poll: How Underemployment Hurts the Economy originally appeared on DailyFinance on Wed, 26 Jan 2011 18:30:00.

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]]> <![CDATA[Where Are Jobs Going Now? Peru, Bulgaria, Bangladesh. . .]]> Many developing countries are joining the list of top countries for outsourcing, while nations such as Australia, Canada and Israel have fallen off.

The U.S. is hardly alone in losing work to cheaper skilled labor in foreign countries. Australia, Canada and Israel, among others, have dropped off Gartner's list of the top 30 countries for outsourcing. Here's where IT and business-processing jobs are heading.

Continue reading Where Are Jobs Going Now? Peru, Bulgaria, Bangladesh. . .

Where Are Jobs Going Now? Peru, Bulgaria, Bangladesh. . . originally appeared on DailyFinance on Tue, 21 Dec 2010 14:45:00.

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]]> <![CDATA[Why Main Street Doesn't Buy Wall Street's 'Recovery']]> Wall Street

If stocks are rising, that should mean the economy is improving. Yet even though the S&P 500 has soared 80% from its March 2009 lows, 70% of Americans don't believe the recession is over. Which side has a firmer grasp of reality? Let's look at the data...

Continue reading Why Main Street Doesn't Buy Wall Street's 'Recovery'

Why Main Street Doesn't Buy Wall Street's 'Recovery' originally appeared on DailyFinance on Wed, 10 Nov 2010 12:30:00.

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]]> <![CDATA[Another Bruising Month for the U.S. Job Market]]> Employment

With America stuck in a job drought -- adding just 71,000 new private sector jobs -- more pressure will be on the Fed to do what it can to stimulate an economy that's operating well below potential. One puzzle: How to create jobs in a period of soaring productivity?

Continue reading Another Bruising Month for the U.S. Job Market

Another Bruising Month for the U.S. Job Market originally appeared on DailyFinance on Fri, 06 Aug 2010 09:50:00.

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]]> <![CDATA[Recent College Grads Can't Get Jobs? Blame the Parents!]]> job line

This year looks like it'll be an even worse year to graduate than last year -- and 2009 was dire. A factor keeping young people from decent jobs is older workers delaying retirement due to shrunken nest eggs.

Continue reading Recent College Grads Can't Get Jobs? Blame the Parents!

Recent College Grads Can't Get Jobs? Blame the Parents! originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 08 Apr 2010 08:45:00.

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]]> <![CDATA[Real Job Growth at Last: Nation Adds 162,000 to Payrolls in March]]>

March was a good month for employment growth after all, as the economy added 162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. It was the biggest rise in U.S. employment since March 2007, when the economy added 239,000 jobs.

Continue reading Real Job Growth at Last: Nation Adds 162,000 to Payrolls in March

Real Job Growth at Last: Nation Adds 162,000 to Payrolls in March originally appeared on DailyFinance on Fri, 02 Apr 2010 10:00:00.

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]]> <![CDATA[Thank Jobs It’s Friday!]]> US Markets are closed today.

Most markets are closed.  Japan was open and they went up 41 points (0.37%) and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index also went up 0.3% in Tokyo 1trading and Russia fell 0.1% but markets in Australia, Hong Kong, China, New Zealand, Singapore, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, the U.S. and all of western Europe are closed today for holidays.  Strangley though, the Futures Market is open this morning so that can make things very tricky on a big data day like today.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has gained 1.7 percent this week as growth in China’s manufacturing and an increase in U.S. consumer spending bolstered optimism the global economic recovery is gaining momentum. The index this week completed its fourth consecutive quarterly advance with a 3.9 percent increase in the three months through March 31. Shares in the gauge trade at 16.4 times estimated earnings, compared with 14.8 times for the MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations.  “The global macroeconomic recovery is behind the current uptrend in equities,” said Tomomi Yamashita, of $3.8Bn Shinkin Asset Management. “That trend is unlikely to change though the market is getting overheated.”

Underemployment in U.S. Workforce, December 2009-March 2010 Monthly TrendWe get Non-Farm Payrolls at 8:30 and, obviously, investors are expecting a report that shows the US firmly on the road to recovery but I have already been reading a Gallup poll on Underemployment that suggests otherwise.  According to the March tracking poll, 20.3% of the US workforce was UNDERemployed and that is UP 0.5% from February.  . Gallup classifies respondents as underemployed if they are unemployed or working part-time but wanting full-time work. Gallup employment data are not seasonally adjusted.  

Those underemployed people are mainly counted as employed in the NFP report and are a major distortion of the numbers, especially as the main delta component was a huge rise in part-time workers, from 9.2% to 9.9% and, like temps, they tend to be counted by the government as happy, happy workers.  Unemployment (no job at all) measured by Gallup decreased from 10.6% to 10.4% and you can see from the following chart how those two are related:

Underemployment Components, December 2009-March 2010 Monthly Trend

According to Gallup, as unemployed Americans find part-time, temporary, and seasonal work, the official unemployment rate could decline. However, this does not necessarily mean more Americans are working at their desired capacity. It will continue to be important to track underemployment — to shed light on the true state of the U.S. workforce, and the millions of Americans who are searching for full-time employment.

Since it’s a holiday, I will present to you this gigantic…
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]]> <![CDATA[Gallup: Mid-March Underemployment Reaches 20%]]> Gallup: Mid-March Underemployment Reaches 20% originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."

]]> <![CDATA[Underemployment Is No Substitute for a Teaching Career]]> Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics says jobs in education are projected to grow by 13% through 2018, obtaining work in the teaching field can still be difficult, depending on the state in which you live. Many states, including Michigan, New York and California have been forced to cut state and city workers in order to eliminate budget deficits – and teaching jobs have been lost in the...

Continue reading Underemployment Is No Substitute for a Teaching Career

Underemployment Is No Substitute for a Teaching Career originally appeared on DailyFinance on Sun, 07 Mar 2010 11:00:00.

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]]> <![CDATA[Underemployment a Growing Problem, Even as the Job Market Turns]]>

As the job market stabilizes, many workers are accepting temporary and part-time jobs. Some economists think new full-time jobs are the next step, but deep changes in the economy may mean that millions of workers will remain underemployed for a long time.

Continue reading Underemployment a Growing Problem, Even as the Job Market Turns

Underemployment a Growing Problem, Even as the Job Market Turns originally appeared on DailyFinance on Sun, 07 Mar 2010 11:00:00.


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]]> <![CDATA[Real unemployment rate is far higher than the headlines]]> DailyFinance: According to recent reports, the unemployment rate fell from 10.2. But is unemployment really falling? Although it seems like toting up the numbers should be fairly straightforward, it turns out to be a complicated calculation. There are several ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[Holiday jobs highlight underemployment crisis]]> DailyFinance: First the good news: According to the U..S Department of Labor Statistics, the November jobless rate fell to 10 improvement over October, when unemployment hit its highest level since 1983. Better yet, according to the Kronos Retail Labor Index, ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[Wall Street job losses are surprisingly low, and firms eye record profits]]> DailyFinance: Main Street is reeling from mounting job losses and a grim outlook by Federal Reserve officials. Wall Street, on the other hand, may be enjoying a sharp rebound. On Tuesday, a report by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli forecast that the ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[Broader unemployment rate hits 17.5% as companies get smarter about staff]]> DailyFinance: The weekly blizzard of economic statistics makes it tough to figure out what is really going on. But with a near-record number of people unemployed or underemployed, productivity at very high levels, and pay rising for the people who still have jobs, ... Read more]]> <![CDATA[True Unemployment Numbers]]> Courtesy of John Lounsbury:

The current official unemployment figure (9.5% for June) should be replaced (or at least supplemented) by a better measurement of actual unemployment. Unemployment should be measured in terms of hours worked by all employees, full-time and part-time. Counting full- and part-time workers equally is giving misleading statistics. Hours per employee, which are changing over time, are not properly recognized in unemployment as currently reported.

Part-time employment for economic reasons - U.S. Dept. of Labor (DOL) terminology - is not directly recognized in the official unemployment rate (U-3). If a person who is working half-time wants to work full-time, but cannot find full-time work, this is the equivalent of half a job lost. The same is true for an employee being forced by an employer to cut half his hours.

The official DOL unemployment rate counts either individual equally with full-time employees in measuring the level of employment. This was discussed in recent articles (here and here) and will be analyzed in detail in this article. John Mauldin has also discussed this problem is some detail recently (here).

Involuntary part-time employment increases significantly in economic downturns, whereas part-time by choice (“part-time for non-economic reasons” in DOL terminology) is much less changed from its trend roughly proportional to the increase in the workforce with time. This is shown in the following two graphs (from DOL BLS Table A-5).

 

Note that there is a big jump in the non-economic graph from December, 1993 to January, 2004, presumably from a change in the measurement rules. There is a drop of the same magnitude for employed part-time for economic reasons at the same time. Apparently, at that time, some of the people who formerly would have been counted as involuntary part-time were transferred to part-time by choice.

There are a number of areas that must be examined to try to determine how involuntary part-time employment should be included in what I have chosen to call “implied total unemployment”.

Among these are:

  1. the definition of full-time employment;
  2. determination of the average work hours in a part-time week;
  3. calculation of the implied total unemployment when data is adjusted so that the full-time equivalent number of employed is used; and
  4. possible changes in the length of the work week over the past decades. These will be discussed in the following sections.

What Is Full-Time Employment?

The DOL does not define the length of a full-time work week. They state that is the domain of the…
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