<![CDATA[Mid-Day Minute by Mike Paulenoff]]> en-us <![CDATA[Has AAPL Completed its Recovery Rally?]]> Apple Inc. (AAPL) followed a bearish technical script, plunging in the aftermath of yesterday’s marginal new recovery high at 594.59, which now looks like a bull trap high that concluded the recovery rally from 505.75 to 594.59.

If that proves to be the case, then AAPL has just started its trek low towards a revisit and retest of support at 530 at a minimum, and possibly to new intermediate-term corrective lows beneath 500.00.

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]]> <![CDATA[Has the Nov 16 Rally Ended?]]> The condensed version of my 4-hour chart of the e-SPZ (e-mini S&P 500) shows all of the highs in the index going back to the high at 1468 on Sept 14.

Let's notice that the rally off of the Nov 16 low is nearing a full-fledged test of the Nov 7 high at 1431.75.

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]]> <![CDATA[Is the AAPL Recovery Rally Over?]]> Apple Inc. (AAPL) has backed away from my Maximum Recovery Resistance Zone at 595 to 605.

That means that if the advance off 506 is a counter-trend rally within an otherwise dominant bear trend, then Apple Inc. (AAPL) could be near or at the end of its run, and will turn down with a vengeance.

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]]> <![CDATA[Correction in Progress for Nat Gas ... But How Deep?]]> The enclosed chart of nearby natural gas futures shows the powerful and significant uptrend that has developed off of the secondary low at 2.575 in late August.

I have demarcated all of the corrective lows with borders around their price labels. Let's notice the beautiful series of higher-lows that has demarcated the Aug-Nov uptrend.

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]]> <![CDATA[AAPL Enters a Digestion Period]]> After breaking key intraday support at 580, then following through to an intraday low at 572.26, and a PF print of 574, Apple Inc. (AAPL) has reversed with the overall market.

This reversal has allow AAPL to recover to a PF high print of 584 (585.80 intraday) in a pattern that appears to be morphing into a congestion area between 590 on the high side and 572 on the low side.

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]]> <![CDATA[Tough, Volatile Session Ends Lower]]> The stock market indices had a tough volatile session. However, the day ended at the lows for the day near key support of the last three sessions. So tomorrow will be a key day to see whether it will hold key support or not.

The day started out with a pop to the upside, and then a very sharp sell-off ensued. Just as sharp, they had a snapback to new highs, but the S&P 500 was unable to get through that level and indicated at that time that it could be seeing a negative divergence. Sure enough, the indices sold off sharply, particularly on Harry Reid’s comments regarding little progress that has been made among both the Democrats and Republicans in resolving the fiscal cliff. There was a sharp sell-off, which then rebounded to about a 50% retracement, but then rolled over into the close to end near the session lows going away.

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]]> <![CDATA[More Upside, or a Peak, for the S&P?]]> At mid-session, let's examine the pattern that is unfolding, as we notice that the e-SPZ (e-mini S&P 500) could have broken down earlier this morning but managed to hold key support right at 1398, from where it has pivoted to the upside into positive territory.

The fact that the index held 1398 might be a clue that it isn't be ready to break down just yet. All of the action since last Friday's high could be taking the form of a high-level coil or consolidation pattern.

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]]> <![CDATA[BAC 15-Month Resistance]]> Bank of America Corporation (BAC) is nearing a test of critical 15-month resistance between 9.97 and 10.10.

Notice, if hurdled and sustained, it should trigger upside continuation immediately to 10.45/50, but optimally towards 12.00 during the subsequent weeks and months.

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]]> <![CDATA[Risk On Markets Poised for Strength]]> Israel and Hamas continue to preserve a truce, the EU still has not agreed to terms that would release the next tranche of bailout funds to Greece.

Spain still has not asked for help despite ECB Head Draghi's reassertion that he is at the ready to buy sovereigns, if only someone would ask!

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]]> <![CDATA[Redux in Natural Gas Inventory Propels Prices]]> Today's larger than expected draw-down in United States Natural Gas (UNG) inventories spiked the price structure above a near 3-year resistance line, now at 3.851.

The ability of natural gas to sustain and to close above the trendline should be viewed as a potentially significant technical "event," that projects considerably higher prices in the days and weeks ahead.

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]]> <![CDATA[Golds Holds Despite Headwinds]]> SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) definitely has some headwinds today, not the least of which is Fed Chairman Bernanke "warning" us that some creativity applied to avoiding the fiscal cliff could make 2013 a good one for the US economy.

Should such a scenario unfold, interest rates could up-tick, perhaps significantly, which usually has negative implications for gold prices.

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]]> <![CDATA[Ford Reverses Off Important Support]]> During an 8-session span from Nov 6 to Nov 16, Ford (F) declined from 11.59 to 10.38, or -11%, prior to Friday's upside reversal and today's follow-through.  

This corrected the prior (Aug-Nov) upleg, retested and held the up-turning 200 EMA, now at 10.60, which also represents the neckline support plateau of the May-Nov base-building effort.

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]]> <![CDATA[Facebook +27% Since Oct 9]]> Since last Friday's low at 18.87, Facebook, Inc. (FB) has climbed to 23.93, or +26.8%, which has propelled the stock from the lower side of its 4-month base pattern right to the top side.

My near-term pattern and momentum work are warning me to expect the current upleg to stall, digest, and perhaps correct some of the week-long gains.

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]]> <![CDATA[A Big Picture Look]]> From a big picture perspective, this is the scenario that my work indicates is in progress.

My interpretation argues that the double corrective low at 3.350 ended the last period that natural gas could have, or should have, imploded to invalidate the bullish scenario, and that since the double lows at 3.350, the price structure has entered a new upleg.

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]]> <![CDATA[AAPL Remains Rangebound]]> Apple Inc. (AAPL) continues to traverse a contracting range since it hit its low PF print at 534.

Let's notice the series of rising low prints at 538 and at 540 juxtaposed against the series of descending high prints at 554 and 550.

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]]> <![CDATA[INTC Carving Out Massive Top]]> Intel Corporation (INTC) has pressed to a new 13-month low at 20.50 today, which amounts to a 30% decline since May.

Yesterday, INTC closed beneath its 26-month support line and is vulnerable to downside continuation towards a test of its Sept 2011 low at 19.16

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]]> <![CDATA[CAT Ignores JPM Research Downgrade]]> Although Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) was in positive territory this morning in the aftermath of a JPM Research downgrade, I am not rushing into the market to buy the stock just yet, until CAT shows that it can sustain the strength, especially on a closing basis.

In addition, let's notice that CAT remains under intense downside technical pressure from its sharply declining 200-EMA, now at 90.27, and from a series of failed rally attempts, the most recent of which occurred at 88.59 on Nov 6.

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]]> <![CDATA[AAPL Reverses: Will The Strength Sustain?]]> Although Apple Inc. (AAPL) has recovered $21 and 4% from this morning's intraday low at 533.37, let's notice that the sharp advance has not inflicted any damage to the dominant downtrend yet.

To inflict some damage, AAPL must hurdle and sustain above 564.00.

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]]> <![CDATA[So Far, a Feeble Recovery Rally Effort]]> What are we to make of the pathetic "recovery" action in the Emini S&P 500 today?

Yesterday, in the immediate aftermath of the election, the e-SPZ declined 47.75 points off of its Obama rally high at 1431.75 to the intraday Wednesday low at 1384.00. During yesterday's morning session, the index recovered to 1399.75, which so far has been the high-water mark for the recovery.

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]]> <![CDATA[Very Negative Post-Election Session]]> The stock market indices got creamed today following the elections last night. They had big gaps down at the opening, and very, very sharp sell-offs into late morning when they reached their session lows just above 2600 on the NDX and near 1388 on the S&P 500. That breakdown, below 1403 S&P 500, was a key break that could lead to much lower levels . We are very concerned. They did rally back in stair-step fashion in a 5-wave rally that took the NDX from 2602 to 2629. The S&P 500 at that point had rallied from the morning lows at around 1388 to 1403 roughly. In the last half hour they rolled over hard into the close and closed with massive losses.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 312.95 at 12,932.73, about 50 points off the low. The S&P 500 was down 33.86 at 1394.53, a definitive breakdown today. That was about 6 points off its low. The Nasdaq 100 was down 68.36 to 2612.69, a 2 1/2-3% loss today, and about 10 points off its low.

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]]> <![CDATA[AAPL Presses to a 20% Corrective Loss]]> Apple Inc. (AAPL) continues to press lower in the aftermath of yesterday's election, with today's low at 564.70, or a full 20% beneath its Sept 21 all-time high.

Nonetheless, the AAPL faithful are being tested, and pressed to the next "ouch point," which could be in the 552-544 support zone that represents the intermediate-term upper-channel lines created out between March 2009 and Feb 2012.

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]]> <![CDATA[Is Coal's Technical Set-Up Hinting at Romney Win?]]> My technical perceptions of the coal market argue that the action over the past 6 months represents a base pattern that is on the verge of upside breakout at 26.20/30, which could be construed as anticipation of a Romney victory.

Romney continually mentions reducing regulations on the coal industry to help get the US moving economically, with new jobs, as well as to reach energy independence faster than otherwise.

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]]> <![CDATA[VIX Nearing Emergence from Massive Base]]> It is fascinating that the VIX (SPX Volatility Index) is trading right along, its 200 EMA, now at 18.48.

The fact that the EMA is flattening out tells me that it is not exerting much resistance any longer, and instead is neutral and will not be an impediment to an upside thrust in the VIX.

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]]> <![CDATA[QQQ's Still Within Corrective Process]]> My near- and intermediate-term work on the PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) argue strongly that the rally from last week's low at 64.65 into this AM's high at 66.21 is a counter-trend move within a larger, incomplete corrective process, rather than the initiation of a new upleg within the multi-year bull market.

Although I cannot rule out a bit more recovery upside into the 66.00/20 area, once complete I am expecting the QQQ's to roll over into another down-leg that presses towards a test of the Nov 2008 support line, now in the vicinity of 60.50.

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]]> <![CDATA[AAPL Does Not Participate Much in Today's Rally]]> On the one hand, it is amazing that Apple Inc. (AAPL) is not much higher, in sympathy with the strong rally in the overall market. On the other, let's notice the very powerful downtrend that continues to create massive headwinds for any rally in AAPL, and AAPL has yet to smack into or probe the really heavy resistance between 606 and 612.

While AAPL from a bar chart, intraday pattern performance has established a series of spike lows at 585.10 and at 588 or so, its inability to scare the shorts so far suggests that it is has not put in a significant low or bottom just yet.

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]]> <![CDATA[Gold Looks Buoyant, While S&P 500 Remains Vulnerable]]> I am not sure what is real, and what is Memorex, as they say. So I will rely on the charts to provide hints about what is going on "out there" in the real economy, ahead of next week's election.

Right now, the Emini S&P 500 (e-SPU) remains vulnerable to still more weakness, especially if it violates and sustains beneath 1393.

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]]> <![CDATA[Gold Cycles Hinting at Significant Low]]> Today is day #115 in my 5.5-month (122 trading day) cycle in gold, which means that this cycle is 94% complete, based on its starting point of May 16, 2012.

Yes, that certainly suggests that this low-to-low cycle is very mature and could be nearing a significant cycle low due in the next week or two.

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]]> <![CDATA[Has the YEN Topped vs USD & EURO?]]> p>For the YEN to really weaken, it must depreciate against both the USD and the EURO.

In terms of the enclosed daily charts, both indices, USD/YEN and EUR/YEN, must continue to head due North.

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]]> <![CDATA[NYMEX Crude Oil Presses Towards the July Lows]]> Today's huge, unexpected inventory build in NYMEX Oil puts additional pressure on a price structure that already was breaking down.

Inability of nearby NYMEX oil to hold support at 85.80/30 will increase the likelihood that oil is heading directly towards $80.00-$77.00 to revisit the end of June lows.

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]]> <![CDATA[Is the VIX Breaking Out of Downtrend?]]> The two most conspicuous technical "events" on the enclosed chart are, firstly, that the S&P 500 has violated and followed through from its June-Oct 2012 up trendline, and, secondly, that the iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX) has hurdled and so far sustained above both its Oct 2011 down trendline and its flattening 200-day EMA.

The last time this happened from mid-May into the first week of June 2012, the VIX climbed from 21.75 to 27.73 (+27%).

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]]> <![CDATA[VIX Follows Through to the Upside]]> It is very encouraging to see the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) hold pullback support at 28.00, and then pivot to the upside to take out Friday's rally peak at 29.49.

The next target is a test of the Oct 15 high at 30.61, which, if or when hurdled, should trigger upside continuation for "the big one," a test of the Sept-Oct resistance line at 32.00.

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]]> <![CDATA[AAPL Hits Next Optimal Downside Target]]> Apple Inc. (AAPL) has declined into my preferred target zone of 620-610 with an intraday low of 615.64.

My near-term work argues that AAPL could bounce violently at just about any time from the 620-610 area, but that in all likelihood it will not represent the low ahead of a new upleg.

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]]> <![CDATA[Has Apple's Recovery Rally Ended?]]> Purely from a technical perspective, the Tues-Wed climb in Apple (AAPL) above 647.20 to a recovery high of 652.79 should have triggered upside continuation from a near-term double-bottom formation.

The fact that yesterday's pre-open high at 652.79 turned out to be a bull trap tells us something loud and clear: The bears are still in control of the dominant downtrend off of the July 21 high at 705.07.

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]]> <![CDATA[China A Shares Carving Out Bottom]]> Everything about this chart set-up tells me to expect higher prices for the Morgan Stanley China A Shares Fund (CAF), possibly much higher prices!

The enclosed powerful downtrend from November 2010 represents only the most "recent" decline from within a 5-year bear market.

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]]> <![CDATA[USD Climbing Against YEN]]> The ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) has hurdled its nearest-term resistance line around 42.00/05, and has continued higher towards a confrontation with its declining 200-Day Expo MA, now at 42.77.

However, beyond its short-term challenges, let's notice that the YCS has carved out a massive potential base formation during the past 18 months that represents an intermediate-term bottom for the USD, and a top for the YEN.

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]]> <![CDATA[Petrobras on Verge of New Upleg?]]> Petrobras (PBR) appears poised for upside re-acceleration exactly one month after its multi-month recovery rally peak at 24.83.

Let's notice that PBR corrected 11%, right to its dominant intermediate-term support line just above 22.00.

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]]> <![CDATA[Bollinger Band Analysis Suggests Caution]]> My Bollinger Band work is warning me that the E-Mini S&P 500 is in route to a test of the lower band line at 1408.

Notice that since Tuesday’s decline and low-close, every rally and every rally attempt has failed to claw back above the down-sloped 20 DMA, now at 1437.75.

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]]> <![CDATA[AAPL Points to Longer-Term Correction]]> From a longer-term technical perspective, while the Jan through Sep 2012 timeframe was extremely exciting and potentially very rewarding for Apple Inc. (AAPL) investors, my pattern and momentum work now are warning me that the "easy money" is behind us.

It may also mean that AAPL is in the early stages of a net declining period that points to the 530 area as its optimal target zone, with an "emotional downside overshoot" target zone in the vicinity of 470 to 450 in the weeks and months directly ahead.

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]]> <![CDATA[Nat Gas Looking Higher]]> The key question for natural gas (looking at the nearby futures chart) is whether all of the action since the October 2 is a high-level consolidation area ahead of a forthcoming upside breakout. Or, whether a correction was completed from Oct 2 (3.546) to Oct 8 (3.327), which means that a new upleg already is in progress that projects sooner than later to 3.700.

With tomorrow's natural gas inventory data once again looming large, my intermediate- and longer-term technical work suggest strongly that the data will not have a lasting negative impact if worse-than-expected. However, if better-than-expected, this could trigger a vicious new up-spike to 3.700-3.750 in a hurry.

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]]> <![CDATA[Selling Pressure Inflicts Damage to the July-Oct Uptrend]]> The Emini S&P 500 has sliced beneath its nearest-term significant support line off the July 24 low, which cut across the price axis this morning at 1442.

The fact that the price structure has been trading and consolidating below the trend break point suggests strongly that the bears are firmly in control of the decline.

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]]> <![CDATA[AAPL Breaks Down!]]> Apple Inc. (AAPL) gapped down this morning, which extended the down column of red O's from late Friday afternoon to a new corrective low at 642.

Today's break down triggers the potential off the enclosed P&F top pattern, which projects into the 620-610 area.

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]]> <![CDATA[AAPL Swoons Again Towards 650]]> In our point-and-figure chart on Apple (AAPL), note how much the red down column of O’s has retraced the adjacent blue up column of X’s. This retracement is too much to regard the rally off the bear trap print low at 652 to the recovery high at 672 as anything other than a head fake within the larger, dominant near-term downtrend that has developed off the all-time high print at 704.

That said, however, continued weakness must print a new reaction low at 650 to trigger downside continuation that points to 620-210.

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]]> <![CDATA[SPY & GDX: Still More Upside?]]> At the moment, both the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) are moving in directional tandem, unlike their inverse directional movement prior to early June.

Both hit early-September highs that were confirmed by daily RSI momentum, and both appear to be in near-term digestion periods ahead of upside continuation.

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]]> <![CDATA[AAPL at Technical Crossroads]]> Apple Inc. (AAPL) sure is making life interesting technically.

For starters, let's notice that it is currently trading right in the middle of its 30-points range, 682-650 roughly, just beneath its key resistance line.

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]]> <![CDATA[Markets Killing Time Ahead of ECB on Thursday?]]> At mid-session, the interesting aspect to today's action is that the USD has weakened noticeably as the EUR/USD has broken out to the upside from its more than 2-week correction.

Thus far, neither spot gold and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) nor the S&P 500 is following the Greenback's lead. At least not yet.

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]]> <![CDATA[Natural Gas and BOIL Meet Next Upside Target]]> The "mysterious" vertical advance in the ProShares Ultra Long DJ-UBS Natural Gas (BOIL) since last Thursday’s large build in inventory continues this morning.

Another thrust has propelled the BOIL to 56.00, which happens to be the highest of my current upside projections off the Aug-Sept base pattern.

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]]> <![CDATA[Is Facebook's Post-IPO Weakness Over?]]> Facebook, Inc. (FB) certainly is following the constructive technical script we have been discussing since it ended its initial Sept upleg from 17.55 to 23.37.

From its 23.37 high on July 19, into Wednesday's July 26 low at 19.80, FB appeared to carve out a completed correction, which was why I entered the long side yesterday afternoon at 20.25.

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]]> <![CDATA[Is Risk Back On Again?]]> Gold is the most intriguing of our representative risk-on markets. In fact, spot gold thrust above its series of lower-highs at $1775.27, which neutralized the minor down-trend off of last Friday's high at $1788.80.

Now what?

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]]> <![CDATA[Has the GDX finished a correction?]]> Both the S&P 500, and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), have been moving in tandem since July 24, when the latter established its double bottom low, with its May low, after which it took off into a powerful 37% advance into last Friday's high.

Let's notice that, although the SPX and the GDX climbed in tandem, the GDX rally extended one week beyond the peak in the SPX, which certainly is a display of relative strength compared with the GDX performance during the prior10 months.

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]]> <![CDATA[How Much Higher for Google?]]> Google Inc. (GOOG) has rocketed to another new all-time high today at 764.37, which is 2.4% above the upper trendline of the channel from the October 2011 low at 480.60.

This should be about the maximum upper channel "overshoot" allowable prior to a reversal that presses the price structure back beneath the upper-channel line, now in the vicinity of 747.

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