Surprise: German Economic Growth Turns Bleak for 2013
Developing countries are supposed to be the fastest growing world economies. Sadly, according to a recent report by the World Bank, in 2012, developing countries put in their slowest economic growth rate in a decade. Developing countries saw their economic growth come in at only 5.1% for 2012. (Source: The World Bank, January 15, 2013.) How about the more developed countries in the global economy ? “High income” countries in the global economy are estimated to have grown by only 1.3% in 2012. In 2013, this growth rate is expected to remain the same. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Europe and Central Asia is expected to have slowed to below three percent in 2012 from 5.5% in 2011. Similarly, Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to see their GDP grow only three percent in 2012, compared to 4.3% in 2011. Add it all up, the World Bank estimates that, in 2012, the overall global economy grew at only 2.3% and it expects the same rate for 2013. Dear reader, I don’t want to be the bearer of bad news, but the numbers don’t lie. The risks in the global economy persist. The combination of a recession-infested eurozone, a slowing economy in China, a depressing Japanese economy, a disappointing U.S. economic performance, and the struggles of the other emerging market economies points to bleak world economic growth for 2013. Even the world economies that were once the strongest are in trouble. The central bank of Germany slashed its GDP growth prospects. It expects Germany’s GDP to increase by only 0.4% in 2013 compared to a previously forecasted increase of one percent. (Source: France 24 , January 16, 2013.) The downgrade in Germany’s earnings growth for 2013 gives credence to my theory that the situation in the eurozone will continue to deteriorate as opposed to improve. Hence, when you hear the mainstream media say the global economy is improving…that the worst is over for the eurozone…don’t believe them. The reality is that the global economy is still swimming in shark-infested waters and a global recession is becoming a very likely scenario; major and emerging market economies are struggling for growth. Demand is bleak and exports in global economy are declining despite the race to currency devaluation. The scrutiny is severe, and no country in the global economy is safe. Forget about the stock market’s move to recent post-Great Recession highs—a global recession could be upon us very soon. Michael’s Personal Notes : Companies in key stock indices like the S&P 500 have started reporting their corporate earnings for the fourth quarter of 2012. There is a heavy concentration of earnings in a small number of S&P ... Read More
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