Up, up and away!
It’s Super Market! Strange index from another reality, who ignores bad news and achieves p/e multiples far beyond those of rational markets. Super Market, who can break resistance on low volume, move higher without consolidation and who – disguised as a genuine Price Discovery Mechanism, an actual indicator of the true-value of listed companies – Instead fights a never-ending battle with rational thinking and negative data because, in America, the market is only allowed to go one way!
OK, I got that sarcasm off my chest, now we can cheer-lead. Go Russell 900 go! Is today finally the day? Will we hold 1,500 on the S&P, 13,800 on the Dow and 900 on the Russell? If we can also get back over 3,150 on the Nasdaq – we'll even have to consider, for the first time in two years, moving that "Must Hold" line on our Big Chart up 5%, finally leaving all of our old Must Hold levels in the dust.
With the 5% rule, the numbers don't change – these are the same levels we've been predicting since the '08-09 crash. What changes is where we target our range and a rally like this makes us believe we can finally look for higher lows than we've had before as we look up to the next set of higher highs, which should take us back to those 2007 levels.
So rah, rah, rah – go markets but – is it JUSTIFIED? SHOULD we be back at 2007 highs? Well, no, not really. That's the problem I've been having this week and now AAPL is tied like a lead weight around the neck of the Nasdaq and this morning we noted in Member Chat that the UK economy (as one of many examples) is STILL 3.3% SMALLER than it was in 2008 (chart left).
That makes this the worst recovery – EVER – or, as RBS puts it: "2008-12: the weakest four years of #GDP performance outside post-war demobilisations since at least the 1830s – fall was bigger than any since before Victoria ascended the throne." No wonder Scots don't get invited to many parties…
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