Little Change Seen in Small Business Optimism
Both the December Job Openings report from the BLS and the Small Business Optimism index for January revealed little change. The January Small Business Optimism Index from the National Federation of Independent Business revealed little change from December. Although economists were expecting to see an increase to 89.5 from December’s 88.0, the index rose by less than one point to 88.9. As is his custom, NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg peppered the report with his monthly political tirade in the tradition of Lou Dobbs and Stuart Varney, offering his own pre-buttal to President Obama’s State of the Union Address. Small Business Sentiment From the report: Small-business owner confidence continues to drag, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index. The Index gained 0.9 points, rising to 88.9, failing to regain the losses caused by last month’s “fiscal cliff” scare. Expectations for improved business conditions increased by five points, but remain overwhelmingly low—negative 30 percent—the fourth lowest reading in survey history. Actual job creation and job creation plans improved nominally, but still not enough to keep up with population growth. * * * “With the dismal news that our economy actually contracted in the fourth quarter of 2012, it isn’t any wonder that more small firms expect their real sales volumes to fall, few have plans to invest in new inventory, and hardly any owners are expanding or hiring. Owner pessimism is certainly not surprising in light of higher taxes, rising health insurance costs, increasing regulations and just plain uncertainty. The President will address the state of our nation tonight, but he apparently won’t have much that’s positive to relay to our small-business community – not while the pall of uncertainty over economic policy continues to depress investment spending and growth.” Also on Tuesday, the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for December . The report contained the bad news that job openings decreased in December to 3.61 million from November’s 3.79 million. The number of “separations” (people who voluntarily quit) decreased – as would be expected when job openings become less available. Don’t Worry; Be Resilient From the report: There were 3.6 million job openings on the last business day of December, little changed from November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The hires rate (3.1 percent) and separations rate (3.0 percent) also were little changed in December. The major ETFs expected to respond to the January Small Business Optimism Index and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for December are: Industiral Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (NYSEARCA: XLI ): +0.44% Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLP): -0.11% Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY): +0.79% SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT): +0.06% iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM): +0.44% Learn More About iShares ETFs Bottom line: Although the Small Business Optimism Index indicated some improvement in January, the degree of advancement was painfully small. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed a slight decrease in job openings during December, underscoring the lack of progress in restoring employment levels to anywhere near where they were before the recession. Sign up for Wall Street Sector Selector’s FREE Stock Market Timing Indicator! Disclaimer: The content included herein is for educational and informational purposes only, and readers agree to Wall Street Sector Selector’s Disclaimer , Terms of Service , and Privacy Policy before accessing or using this or any other publication by Wall Street Sector Selector or Ridgeline Media Group, LLC.
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