Markets on Edge as Italy’s Election Hangs in Balance
European stocks rose as exit polls showed Pierluigi Bersani winning Italy ’s election, although the vote count has turned in Berlucsoni’s favor. Italy’s election has turned out to be a real nail-biter (NYSEARCA:EWI). The austerity mandate imposed by the European Central Bank and the European Union has been crushing Italy’s economy. Istat reported that during the fourth quarter, Italy’s GDP contracted by 0.9 percent. On a year-over-year basis, Italy’s GDP shrank by whopping 2.7 percent, despite austerian economists’ expectations for economic expansion. At just over $2 trillion American dollars, Italy has the third largest amount of outstanding government debt in the world and the highest in Europe, just ahead of Britain. As a result, a significant spike in Italian bond yields would create quite a wave of economic unrest. The country with the most exposure to Italian debt is France, holding an amount in excess of 50 billion American dollars (NYSEARCA:EWQ). As we pointed out on Sunday morning , Italy’s voters had been turning toward anti-establishment candidates, willing to thumb their noses at Brussels: Although Pierluigi Bersani, the center-left candidate, is expected to bring about a stable transition, public frustration and outrage has set the stage for a more radical power shift. * * * If Silvio Berlusconi or an anti-establishment candidate is elected as Prime Minister, be ready for a stock market swoon. Early exit polls had indicated that Bersani was enjoying a comfortable lead. As the vote count began, it became apparent that Silvio Berlusconi could win the Senate, making the nation ungovernable. Despite the European stock market’s gains, Italy’s bond yield rose and American stocks declined. As of 11:08 EST, the Euro STOXX 50 Index climbed 0.63 percent to 2,648 – just above its 50-day moving average of 2,644. After breaking above its resistance level of 2,700 on January 21, the STOXX 50 continues to experience overhead resistance at that level, which has been a barrier since the beginning of the year. Its Relative Strength Index is 49.20 (NYSEARCA:FEZ). The FTSE 100 advanced 0.14 percent to 6,343 (NYSEARCA:EWU). The German DAX Index surged 1.27 percent to 7,759 (NYSEARCA:EWG). France’s CAC 40 Index rose 0.38 percent to 3,719 (NYSEARCA:EWQ). Spain’s IBEX 35 Index advanced 0.40 percent to 8,211 (NYSEARCA:EWP). Italy’s FTSE MIB Index climbed 0.50 percent to 16,316 (NYSEARCA:EWI). As of 11:27 EST, the euro advanced 0.10 percent against the dollar, trading at $1.3207 (NYSEARCA:FXE). Spain’s ten-year bond yield declined to 5.12 percent on Monday from Friday’s closing level of 5.14 percent (NYSEARCA:EWP). Spain’s two-year bond yield dipped to 2.52 percent on Monday from Friday’s closing level of 2.54 percent (NYSEARCA:EWP). Italy’s ten-year bond yield climbed to 4.52 percent on Monday from Friday’s closing level of 4.48 percent (NYSEARCA:EWI). On London’s ICE Futures Europe Exchange, April futures for Brent crude oil advanced by 35 cents (0.31 percent) to $114.45/bbl. (NYSEARCA:BNO, NYSEARCA:USO). Energy Stocks Try to Fuel the Markets April Gold Futures advanced by $15.90 (1.01 percent) to $1,588.70 per ounce (NYSEARCA:GLD). A Golden Opportunity with Miners Part II In Japan, stocks skyrocketed as yen weakness intensified, following reports that Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda would be the likely replacement for Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa. Kuroda is expected to promote further monetary stimulus efforts (NYSEARCA:FXY). A weaker yen results in lower prices for Japanese exports in foreign markets. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average jumped 2.43 percent to 11,662 (NYSEARCA:EWJ). China’s stocks rebounded despite a downbeat HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI for February , which dropped to a 4-month low of 50.4 from January’s 52.3. The result was ignored as a consequence of the week-long Chinese New Year celebration. Oil refiners led the advance after increases in fuel prices exceeded expectations. The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.50 percent on Friday to 2,325 (NYSEARCA:FXI). Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.17 percent to 22,820 (NYSEARCA:EWH). American stock index futures were positive territory ahead of Monday’s opening bell as early exit polls were suggesting that Pierluigi Bersani was winning the election in Italy, raising hopes that the Eurozone economy could dodge a bullet. The March 13 Dow Jones Industrials future advanced 0.38 percent to 14,034 as of 9:14 EST. The March 13 S&P 500 future rose 0.48 percent to 1,521 (NYSEARCA:SPY). The March 13 Nasdaq 100 future climbed 0.65 percent to 2,753. Bottom line: As the vote count continues in Italy ’s election, global markets fear the consequences of a return to power by Silvio Berlusconi. Sign up for Wall Street Sector Selector’s FREE Stock Market Timing Indicator! Disclaimer: The content included herein is for educational and informational purposes only, and readers agree to Wall Street Sector Selector’s Disclaimer , Terms of Service , and Privacy Policy before accessing or using this or any other publication by Wall Street Sector Selector or Ridgeline Media Group, LLC.
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