January 30, 2014 at 11:15 AM EST
New Jobless Claims at 348K, Up a Disappointing 19K
Doug Short: The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was released this morning for last week. The 348,000 new claims number was a disappointing 19,000 increase from the previous week’s 329,000, an upward revision from 326,000. The less volatile and closely watched four-week moving average, which is usually a better indicator of the trend, rose by 750 to 330,000. […] Related posts: New Jobless Claims At 326K, In Line With Expectations [Dow Jones Industrial Average(INDEXDJX:.DJI), S&P 500(INDEXSP:.INX)] Dow Jones Industrial Average: New Jobless Claims At 326K, A Bit Better Than Expected New Jobless Claims A Disappointing 339K and Trending In The Wrong Direction December Durable Goods Report: A Massive Disappointment [Dow Jones Industrial Average(INDEXDJX:.DJI), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF] GDP Q4 Advance Estimate: A Solid 3.2% [Dow Jones Industrial Average(INDEXDJX:.DJI), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust]

jobsDoug Short: The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was released this morning for last week. The 348,000 new claims number was a disappointing 19,000 increase from the previous week’s 329,000, an upward revision from 326,000. The less volatile and closely watched four-week moving average, which is usually a better indicator of the trend, rose by 750 to 330,000.

Here is the opening of the official statement from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending January 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claimswas 348,000, an increase of 19,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 329,000. The 4-week moving average was 333,000, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s revised average of 332,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending January 18, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 18 was 2,991,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,007,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,970,250, an increase of 43,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 2,926,750.

Today’s seasonally adjusted number was well above the Investing.com forecast of 330K.

Here is a close look at the data over the past few years (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession and the volatility in recent months.

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Click for a larger image

As we can see, there’s a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

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Click for a larger image

Occasionally I see articles critical of seasonal adjustment, especially when the non-adjusted number better suits the author’s bias.

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Related posts:

  1. New Jobless Claims At 326K, In Line With Expectations [Dow Jones Industrial Average(INDEXDJX:.DJI), S&P 500(INDEXSP:.INX)]
  2. Dow Jones Industrial Average: New Jobless Claims At 326K, A Bit Better Than Expected
  3. New Jobless Claims A Disappointing 339K and Trending In The Wrong Direction
  4. December Durable Goods Report: A Massive Disappointment [Dow Jones Industrial Average(INDEXDJX:.DJI), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF]
  5. GDP Q4 Advance Estimate: A Solid 3.2% [Dow Jones Industrial Average(INDEXDJX:.DJI), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust]

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