Doug Short: The most important economic news this week is Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, probably the most significant in the near term being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository).
The ADP 175K estimate came in a bit below theInvesting.com forecast of 180K for the ADP number.
The Investing.com forecast for Friday’s BLS report is 185K nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number). The Briefing.com PAYEMS consensus is 175K new jobs and their own estimate is for a lower 150K.
Here is an excerpt from today’s ADP report:
|“The U.S. private sector added 175,000 jobs in January, which is in line with the average monthly growth throughout 2013,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP.Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Cold and stormy winter weather continued to weigh on the job numbers. Underlying job growth, abstracting from the weather, remains sturdy. Gains are broad based across industries and company sizes, the biggest exception being manufacturing, which shed jobs, but that is not expected to continue.”|
Here is the press release from TrimTabs:
|“The Fed is far too optimistic about the U.S. economy,” said David Santschi, Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs. “Neither real-time tax data nor key credit indicators points to the acceleration in economic growth that so many on Wall Street think is underway.”TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on an analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. They are historically more accurate than the initial estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.In a research note, TrimTabs explained that it is citing a range rather than a single figure for its January estimate because the impact of bonus shifting last year is skewing income tax withholdings. Many employers paid bonuses that would normally have been paid in January 2013 and February 2013 in December 2012 to avoid higher income tax rates. Some of the withholdings on bonuses paid in December 2012 were not received by the Treasury until January 2013. |
“The impact of bonus shifting will continue to skew withholdings through this month, so we’ll be providing a range for our estimate for February as well,” noted Santschi.
TrimTabs reported that wage and salary income—which includes year-end bonus payments—edged up 0.5% year-over-year in real terms in January after dropping 4.1% year-over-year in real terms December. It attributed the volatility in the data mostly to the timing of bonus payments.
Here is a visualization of the three series over the previous twelve months along with the ADP and TrimTabs estimates for January. I’ve used the top end of the TrimTabs range for this chart.(...)Click here to continue reading the original ETFDailyNews.com article: Anticipating The January Employment Report [Dow Jones Industrial Average(INDEXDJX:.DJI), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust]You are viewing an abbreviated republication of ETF Daily News content. You can find full ETF Daily News articles on (www.etfdailynews.com)
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- Anticipating The November Employment Report
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