Doug Short: The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was released this morning for last week. The 331,000 new claims number was a welcome 20,000 decline from the previous week’s 351,000, an upward revision from 348,000. The less volatile and closely watched four-week moving average, which is usually a better indicator of the trend, rose by 250 to 334,000.
Here is the opening of the official statement from the Department of Labor:
In the week ending February 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 331,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 351,000. The 4-week moving average was 334,000, an increase of 250 from the previous week’s revised average of 333,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending January 25, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 25 was 2,964,000, an increase of 15,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 2,949,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,985,500, an increase of 25,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 2,959,750.
Today’s seasonally adjusted number came in 4K below the Investing.com forecast of 335K.
Here is a close look at the data over the past few years (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession and the volatility in recent months.
As we can see, there’s a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.
Occasionally I see articles critical of seasonal adjustment, especially when the non-adjusted number better suits the author’s bias. But a comparison of these two charts clearly shows extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data, and the 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change in the second chart (note, for example, those regular January spikes).(...)Click here to continue reading the original ETFDailyNews.com article: New Jobless Claims At 331K, A Bit Better Than Expected [Dow Jones Industrial Average(INDEXDJX:.DJI), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust]You are viewing an abbreviated republication of ETF Daily News content. You can find full ETF Daily News articles on (www.etfdailynews.com)
- New Jobless Claims at 348K, Up a Disappointing 19K [Dow Jones Industrial Average(INDEXDJX:.DJI), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust]
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: New Jobless Claims At 326K, A Bit Better Than Expected
- New Jobless Claims At 326K, In Line With Expectations [Dow Jones Industrial Average(INDEXDJX:.DJI), S&P 500(INDEXSP:.INX)]
- New Jobless Claims At 330K, A Bit Better Than Expected
- ISM Non-Manufacturing: Up A Percent [Dow Jones Industrial Average(INDEXDJX:.DJI), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust]
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