Taiwan warned it may lose U.S. support

U.S. officials in diplomatic circles have discreetly warned Taiwan that further provocations of China -- especially during the coming election year -- may result in a loss of support for the island, an economic intelligence firm reports.

The Texas-based Stratfor has issued a report providing details of a communique sent to Taiwanese officials Dec. 15 by Richard Bush, managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan.

The report said Bush informed Taipei, "If the new Taiwan administration's policies converge with our own interests, then there will be no problem. If they do not, then we will discuss the differences in a spirit of friendship." Next year is also an election year in Taiwan, with voters choosing from various presidential candidates -- all of whom support a more formal separation from China -- in March.

Stratfor said the communique "sent a very clear message to the frontrunners in the upcoming elections," and said Bush told Taipei the U.S. continues to support a "one-China policy."

"Bush's statement was a friendly warning from Washington's diplomatic arm into Taipei," the report said. "Bush was clearly warning Taiwan's presidential candidates: If they antagonize China during their upcoming campaigns, they risk U.S. support for Taiwan."

China views Taiwan as little more than a renegade province and has vowed to use force, if necessary, to reclaim it.

Richard Parker, senior editor at Stratfor, cautioned that "there is no hard and fast rule" mandating that the U.S. "defend" Taiwan, adding, "there is a great deal of ambiguity" in the Taiwan Relations Act and other laws pertaining to Taiwanese relations. Though Parker doesn't believe the U.S. would "completely abandon Taiwan, they definitely watch us for signals and there are a number of things the administration can do to apply pressure on Taipei."

In his FY 1999 report to Congress, U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen reiterated China's pledge to use force to reunify Taiwan. Though both countries "have stated they seek a peaceful resolution to the reunification issue," Beijing maintains "that a formal declaration of independence by Taipei or foreign intervention in Taiwan's internal affairs relative to the reunification issue would provoke China to take up arms against Taiwan."

The Defense Department report also said any move by Taiwan to develop nuclear weapons would also provoke a military response from China. A Dec. 8 Reuters report said that although Taiwan was not developing nuclear missiles, the "know-how [is] within Taiwan's technical reach."

It is China's refusal to decline the use of force that has U.S. policymakers worried over additional provocation from Taiwan's new president -- whomever that may be.

"First, Washington's interests demand continued peace in the Taiwan Strait. Second, Washington sees China as increasingly cantankerous and unstable, ready to pounce if provoked," Parker said.

The most recent antagonization of China came from Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui, when he avowed that Taiwan has a "special state-to-state relationship" with the mainland. China responded angrily by reminding the province -- and the world -- that it has always regarded Taiwan as part of its territory.

Worse, Teng-hui's statement has refueled similar sentiments among the province's leading presidential candidates.

"Now all three presidential contenders have at least stated that Taipei needs to negotiate with Beijing on equal footing," Stratfor said.

The Clinton administration is especially worried that any worsening of tensions with China could make for bad politics. China -- already blamed for years of espionage against the U.S., which appeared to worsen while Clinton has been in office -- could become a problematic issue for Vice President Al Gore, who is seeking the Democratic presidential nomination.

"If the United States is involved in a military confrontation with China, China will be the determinant issue in the American presidential campaign," Parker said.

Gore's Tennessee campaign office, as well as the Office of the Vice President, were contacted by WorldNetDaily, but both declined to comment.

"In economic terms as well, the United States does not want tension to burn the bridges that connect U.S. business interests to the mainland," the Stratfor report noted. "Only weeks ago, Washington's 13-year diplomatic initiative to open China's markets to the world culminated in the signing of a bilateral trade agreement which will help China become a member of the World Trade Organization."

In a Nov. 15 speech from Ankara, Turkey, President Clinton praised new trade relations with China and pledged to continue efforts to open Chinese markets "to the world."

"Today, China embraces principles of economic openness, innovation and competition that will bolster China's economic reforms and advance the rule of law," Clinton said. "In opening the economy of China, the agreement will create unprecedented opportunities for American farmers, workers and companies to compete successfully in China's market, while bringing increased prosperity to the people of China."

In its report, Stratfor noted, "The waters between China and Taiwan are the most important shipping route in the region; cross-straits tension could halt the flow of trade through the region, potentially endangering Asia's faltering export-driven economic recovery." During the 1996 China-Taiwan crisis, which sparked U.S. officials to hurriedly dispatch two aircraft carrier battle groups to diffuse the tension, Japan diverted fully one-third of its shipping traffic away from the straits.

"The trade agreement is part of a broader agreement, designed to bring China into global systems on issues from nonproliferation to regional security to environmental protection to human rights. With this agreement, the overall relationship between our countries is strengthened," Clinton said in his November address.

However, Parker said, it's also possible that Washington may sense rising tensions in China. The Asian giant has endured some 60,000 protests this year alone as internal pressure to reverse months of economic decline continues to mount. Taiwan, experts believe, may just be the "release valve" Beijing needs to refocus citizens' attention away from the internal economy and toward a more nationalist attitude.

"Washington senses that China is on edge," said Parker. "Beijing could very easily respond to provocation with hostility. Clearly this administration has been sending signals to Taiwan for some time, including the president's trip to China earlier this year."

On Thursday, in a move widely seen as an effort to relieve tensions with China over the accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy during the U.S.-led NATO bombing campaign against Yugoslavia, officials in both countries agreed to separate payment schemes compensating each for damage done to respective embassies. The Clinton administration said it would seek congressional funds to compensate China for the loss of its embassy in Serbia, while China agreed to offset costs in repairing U.S. embassies in China, damaged by days of protests over the U.S. bombing.

The U.S. contribution to China would amount to some $28 million, while China would pay $2.87 million. The State Department said it adds the U.S. payment to the department's Fiscal Year 2001 budget request.

"I hope this day marks the beginning of a more positive trend in U.S.-China relations," said State Department legal advisor David Andrews in making the announcement.

At the end of a nine-day visit to Taiwan Thursday, Richard Bush said Taipei and Beijing "should rely on negotiations, not just weapons," to resolve their differences. He added that Taiwan should be able to join the World Trade Organization sometime next year, which would "help smooth relations," and played down the ruling Nationalist Party presidential candidate Vice President Lien Chan's statement that the U.S. should sell Taiwan more long-range missiles.

"The United States has a long-standing and well known concern about the proliferation of missile systems," Bush said.

Also of concern to Western analysts is the emerging alliance between former Cold War foes, Russia and China. On Dec. 10, just three days after being released from the hospital where he was being treated for pneumonia, Russian President Boris Yeltsin traveled to China for a 26-hour visit with his Chinese counterpart, Jiang Zemin. At the meeting, both leaders issued a joint statement condemning what they perceive as U.S. global hegemony, and praised each other over the handling of separate crises facing both nations.

China applauded Russia's military action against Chechen separatists, while Yeltsin said he "supports China's principled stand on the issue of Taiwan."

"Beijing shares Moscow's profound fear of ethnic separatism and is equally wary of intervention by Western nations in internal conflicts, which it believes could set a precedent for international interference in Tibet and Taiwan," the Associated Press reported.

The two leaders also warned against a proposed U.S. national anti-missile shield, and Russia backed China in opposing the inclusion of Taiwan in any regional anti-missile umbrella.