To understand the present, we must understand the past. By studying what happened before the outbreak of previous wars, we learn to know the moves that will precede the next war. Earlier this week, presidential candidate George W. Bush suggested that there isn't any danger of a major war today.

In light of past events and recent events, he should reconsider.

On May 13, 1941, the territorial administration of Soviet Russia was changed within seven areas of the Russian part of the Soviet Union. These seven areas corresponded to seven of Russia's eight military districts (i.e., the so-called "internal" military districts of the USSR -- as opposed to the eight external military districts which were located in outlying Soviet republics). According to Stalin's May 13 order, responsibility for territorial security and administrative coordination within the seven military districts passed from the Soviet military to secret structures set up by Stalin.

According to Viktor Suvorov's controversial book, "Icebreaker," the reason for the administrative changes of May 13, 1941, had to do with Soviet war mobilization. Suvorov claims that the seven internal military districts in question had been ordered to convert themselves into army headquarters. They were then ordered to march west, toward Nazi Germany. In this event, something had to take their place.

Now consider Vladimir Putin's first major move as Russia's president.

On May 13, 2000, President Putin announced that Russia's provinces would be organized into seven administrative areas. Coincidentally, these areas are identical to the seven USSR internal military districts of Stalin's May 13, 1941 headquarters conversion order. According to Putin's May 13 decree, Kremlin envoys are to be sent to areas conforming to seven of Russia's eight military districts. These envoys will have special instructions and special powers. The headquarters of the new envoys will be located in the same cities as the military district headquarters of the seven internal military districts.

According to a May 14 Interfax report, the leader of Russia's Communist Party, Gennady Zyuganov, immediately understood and approved the significance of Putin's move. According to Zyuganov, Putin's decree was clearly based on "a replica of the principle of seven military districts into which Russia is divided." (Actually, there are eight, but one is the Moscow Military District.)

Putin's 10-page decree on reorganizing Russia's provinces was openly advertised as a measure to correct administrative deficiencies in relations between Moscow and outlying regions. But the May 13 decree neither revokes the power of local governors nor changes any provincial borders. All it does is establish a system of administrative control parallel to Russia's peacetime military districts (excepting the Moscow Military District).

Putin's May 13 decree also establishes new regional capitals in the seven military districts, while giving Putin the right to organize special staff organizations in these districts. These staffs would be responsible for carrying out Kremlin directives and coordinating security agencies.

Now let us consider a second item of interest:

In 1941, before the outbreak of fighting between Soviet Russia and Germany, Stalin amnestied over 130,000 prisoners in Siberia. These prisoners were to be formed into 10 new divisions within the Siberian Military District. The Soviet 24th Army, in fact, was made up almost entirely of gulag inmates, mostly lumberjacks.

But there is more. Additional armies of prisoners were formed, and most of Russia's prison population was mobilized for military use during the Second World War. According to Viktor Suvorov, large sections of Soviet Russia's Second Strategic Echelon were made up of amnestied prisoners. And many were mobilized before the outbreak of hostilities.

Now let us consider a recent move of the Russian Duma:

On May 17, 2000, the Associated Press reported that 120,000 Russian prisoners might soon receive amnesty. The reasons given for the amnesty of so many Russian inmates was disease and overcrowding within Russia's prison system. This most recent consideration of amnesty is not an isolated instance. Last year, there were significant amnesties within Russia, and a very large amnesty in the former Soviet republic of Kazakhstan.

It is said that Russia has the highest per capita prison population in the world. Suspects often spend years behind bars without trial, hoping for a chance to vindicate themselves. The alleged overcrowding in Russian prisons is said to produce epidemics. According to the Russian Justice Ministry approximately 100,000 inmates suffer from TB. Suddenly the Kremlin cares about the health of these prisoners.

Are the amnestied prisoners being taken into the Russian Army?

It is not possible to say, since little information has been published on this in Russia. Rumors about amnestied prisoners going directly into the Russian Army were circulating last year, especially during the Kosovo crisis.

In a related move, President Putin has ordered that Russian boys, ages 15 and up, will attend military indoctrination classes. Also, Russian girls will learn how to attend wounded soldiers.

In this context, this column has discussed Russia's stockpiling of strategic metals throughout 1999 and early 2000. In recent weeks, Russia has begun selling these metals to select customers. But these sales will yet preserve the accumulated total, so that a huge strategic stockpile remains. One has to ask: Why has this stockpile been accumulated? To what end?

And why is the stockpile being preserved?

Last week, the Sydney Morning Herald broke a stunning story about China's war preparations.

According to Australian intelligence sources, China is planning to blockade Taiwan's largest port sometime around September of this year. Australian intelligence learned this information from a shared United States intelligence forecast.

How does this relate to Russian mobilization moves?

Russia and China have become "strategic partners." In fact, they are acting as if they are in a military alliance against the United States. If China begins a blockade against Taiwan in September, a naval clash between Chinese and American forces is possible. If this clash should escalate into full-scale war, it is only logical that the Russians would support the Chinese.

In this context, it is interesting to note that Russia has begun deploying military assets to the Persian Gulf for the first time in years and plans to send an air army to Vietnam. Russia also intends to deploy a task force to the Mediterranean in November.

Meanwhile, in America, presidential front-runner George W. Bush dismisses the Russian threat altogether. This week, Bush said: "Russia itself is no longer our enemy. The cold-war logic that led to creation of massive [nuclear] stockpiles on both sides is now outdated."

George W. Bush needs to wake up to the geopolitical reality. The Cold War has not ended, and Cold War logic still applies. Russia's moves and China's threat to Taiwan suggest that war is a real possibility.