As tensions in the Middle East continue to simmer on slow boil -- kept alive by the current "intifada" or uprising waged by Palestinians against Israel -- the upcoming Arab League Summit in Amman, Jordan, is not likely to diffuse the worsening crisis, a regional analysis says.

According to DEBKAfile, a Mideast intelligence publication, next Tuesday's meeting "circles over the Middle East like a bird of ill omen." The publication's sources say "pressures building up in the run-up to the session" are "unlikely to taper off" in the meeting's aftermath.

DEBKA analysts say the next-most-likely timeframes for violence are April and May-June -- violence could take the form of a wider regional war, depending on whether Arab nations not now directly involved decide to throw in with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and the few Arab leaders willing to back him already.

Depending upon the decisions made by Arab leaders at the summit, the implications could reach beyond the region, DEBKA analysts said.

"All past Middle East conflagrations have jolted the world economy and global balance of power," said a DEBKA-Net-Weekly report, published Friday. "Since the United States, Russia and China are deeply involved financially and militarily with some of the potential belligerents, the governments of these powers will not escape untouched either."

Analysts said the repercussions could also "ripple outward" to the Balkans and some of the Muslim republics of Central Asia, "such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, and may even lap at the military balance between Pakistan and India."

Emerging alliances

Already a few nations have expressed at least some willingness to back the Palestinian cause, though analysts say no nation thus far has yet formally and publicly pledged military support in the form of armies, air power and political cover.

But Iraq, under Saddam Hussein's leadership, has begun to exert some influence among Palestinians, by providing direct financial support to Palestinians injured in violence or to the surviving families of Palestinians killed in the six-month-old uprising against Israel.

Also, Saddam has begun to forge a new alliance with neighboring Syria, under the leadership of President Bashar Assad, and Baghdad has made new overtures to reconcile with arch-nemesis Iran as well.

DEBKA analysts hypothesize that Assad "holds the key" to the next series of events in the Mideast.

"American policymakers, led by Vice President Dick Cheney and CIA Director George Tenet, are bitterly disappointed in … Assad," said the March 16 analysis. "As a young leader, he was considered inexperienced, indecisive and malleable. Instead, he has turned out to be so radical as to turn their plans -- and the Middle East internal balance -- upside down."

The report said U.S. officials "feel cheated" following Washington's offers of assistance made to Bashar Assad's father, the late Syrian leader Hafez Assad, "a few months before his death" in June 2000. Then, under the Clinton administration, Washington said it would help provide stabilization to Syria under Bashar's leadership "in return for the dying president's pledge that the young ruler would enter peace negotiations with Israel," the report said.

A U.S. team of political and intelligence experts was sent to Damascus to "tutor the young ruler in inter-Arab and international politics. In January, the team found itself cold-shouldered and replaced by other advisers. By March, they were unemployed and found themselves displaced, after a series of power struggles in the presidential palace, by the Syrian chief of staff, Gen. Aly Aslan, who is today … the man closest to Bashar's ear," said the report.

Aslan is characterized as an extremist, and has managed to convince Bashar to fortify "Syria's presence in Lebanon," analysts said in their report.

"To reach the top of the Arab tree, the general advised him [Bashar] to jump aboard the radical Arab train and pull away from moderate Egypt and Jordan, who signed peace with Israel," said DEBKA. "Aslan urged Bashar to adopt an independent, belligerent stance, even at the risk of a limited military clash with Israel, as his rite of passage to the standing of a pan-Arab leader."

Meanwhile, Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein has also convinced Bashar to allow several Iraqi armor and infantry divisions to be placed near the Iraq-Syria border -- ostensibly in support of Syrian military action against the Jewish state, should it come -- and to re-open an oil pipeline through Syria to allow Saddam to export up to 250,000 barrels of oil a day, in violation of U.N. sanctions.

During his recent Mideast visit, Secretary of State Colin Powell managed to win a concession from Bashar to discontinue its cooperation with Baghdad, "or, at least, stop helping Saddam smuggle out Iraqi oil," the report said.

"Assad agreed to this last request, but without a timetable to halt the flow," analysts said, according to the DEBKA-Net report.

For his part, Saddam -- who has tested the mettle of the Bush administration already -- has yet to formally declare to Bashar that he would order Iraqi military divisions out of Iraq, through Syria and into Lebanon or Israel, in support of an allied Arab action against the Jewish state, even though analysts say "a certain war dynamic has been building [in Iraq] since Arafat launched his uprising at the end of September [2000]. ..."

"With all his strength lined up and so much at stake," the report said, "Saddam will have to make his intentions known to the forthcoming Arab League summit. ... That will be the moment for him to decide whether to stay on the safe side of the brink, or step into the war abyss."

In the event Iraq chooses war, the report said, "U.S. and Israeli intelligence watchers are of the opinion that, before civilian casualties, he [Saddam] will seek to target the Israeli nuclear industry, the Dimona reactor; the factories manufacturing [surface-to-surface] missiles; and the military sites where Israel stocks its nuclear arsenal."

WorldNetDaily, quoting DEBKA sources, reported in February that Iraq was angling for a potential conflict by moving armored divisions and missile forces into position for a possible attack.

The movements, which were relayed to Israeli intelligence and military officials, were tracked by American spy satellites, prompting the Jewish state to place its forces on high alert and warn some towns in northern Israel to prepare for incoming missile attacks.

The report said U.S. intelligence estimates claimed that Iraqi missile forces would have been ready to launch at Israel by 6 p.m. local time Thursday, but Mideast sources said "a European government -- probably Britain" -- sent word to Iraqi intelligence that if missile launch preparations continued, "Israel would not again sit still and wait for Iraqi missiles to rain down on its towns, as it did in the 1991 Gulf War."

Arafat still determined

DEBKAfile analysts, in their latest report, have noted that Palestinian Authority chief Yasser Arafat -- for as long as he can, anyway -- will likely continue to direct Palestinian factions to strike out at Israel.

Indeed, Arafat "is the only Arab leader strategically committed to making war on Israel," DEBKA analysts said in their report. "His greatest disappointment is the Arab world's failure to rally behind him -- even the outwardly supportive … Saddam Hussein," who analysts say remains "enigmatic."

"Since Arafat is the only Arab leader without a regular army," the report said, "he fields a hodge-podge made up of his own presidential guard, the Palestinian police force, security service officers, and Fatah and Tanzim militias. … His tactic aims at provoking Israel into landing a mighty military blow, resulting in a Palestinian massacre that will shock the Arab and Muslim masses into forcing their rulers to join the Palestinian war," analysts said.

But because of the increased hardships -- financially, socially, and militarily -- being foisted upon the whole of the Palestinian people by Arafat's continued "jihad" ("holy war") against Israel, analysts believe he is losing support and is in danger of seeing his own regime fatally crippled.

Last week, Israeli intelligence officials told the Sharon government essentially the same thing -- that given enough time, Arafat's deeds will inflict more damage on his credibility and leadership, causing Palestinians to turn on him and send him packing, probably to Iraq.

"… The authority of Arafat's governing bodies is breaking down gradually but surely," DEBKA analysts said.

Still, said the report, Arafat may hold the key to escalating the violence into a full-scale war -- hence the upcoming April and May/June timelines.

"To achieve this end, Palestinians must drastically accelerate the spiral of violence, carrying out increasingly brutal attacks, shooting heavy weapons -- including rockets -- against Israeli armored forces … sending armed Palestinians to invade Israeli settlements or villages … and taking hostages or attacking Israeli strategic targets such as airports, power stations and water works," the report said.

So far, however, the escalation -- and Arab support -- that Arafat has sought have not materialized.

"As the date for the summit draws near," analysts said, in their report, "Arafat finds himself cornered. He never imagined so much across-the-board opposition to the Palestinian uprising or finding himself with an empty war chest.

"The Arab world, the European Union, U.S. donors and Israel are all holding back the flow of cash to the Palestinian Authority for as long as it is dedicated to intifada. The Arab oil powers refuse to make good on the $1 billion they pledged at the last summit in Cairo, Egypt," the report said, "and will only release funds for development, not combat" -- development that the PA desperately needs to remain viable.

Little Arab support

Experts have told WND that Egypt is the real "key" to any potentially successful military action against Israel, since Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iran have expressed little enthusiasm for engaging Israel, either on behalf of themselves or the Palestinians.

As the Saudi government seeks to recover from internal political power struggles and increase oil revenues, Egypt remains opposed to Mideast war, as does Jordan.

"The Saudis will … do everything in their power to avert a Middle East war and in any event stay on the sidelines of any conflict," the report said.

However, internal factors may play a role in the eventual decisions made by the leaders of these countries.

Fifty-six percent of Jordan's population is Palestinian, and there is a growing Islamic extremist movement in Egypt that has been -- and remains -- supportive of the Palestinian cause. But, in a bid to prevent Jordan's King Abdullah from being persuaded to back Iraq, Israel has promised military support in case Jordan is invaded by Baghdad (to "liberate" the Palestinian population) or if the large Palestinian population stages its own uprising.

Also, Saudi Arabia is bound to draw the ire of many in the Arab world because the country would, again, become a base for U.S. forces that would undoubtedly be sent to assist Israel in any attack launched against them.

Such pressures could force Saudi leaders to rethink allowing U.S. forces access to the country, though most analysts think this is unlikely.

Iran, so far, remains an unknown factor, but Iraq and Syria have been pushing the Islamic republic to take a stand against Israel, not so much in support of the Palestinians, but because of Iran's historic anti-Jewish sentiment.

Even here, though, forces are at work to mitigate Iran's participation.

Quietly, the Bush administration -- despite placing sanctions on Iran last week for state-sponsored terrorist activities -- is attempting to woo Tehran out of the zone of Arab influence and back into the Western fold, if for no other reason than to act as a calming, stabilizing force in the region.

Clearly, analysts point out, both the U.S. and Israel are becoming increasingly concerned over Tehran's military ties with Russia, coupled with its own domestic weapons production, enhancement and construction programs.

But without direct Iranian involvement, U.S. officials and Israeli intelligence believe that Tehran is amenable to the benefits of Western alliance and are holding out hope that the Islamic republic will refrain from a temptation -- however slight -- to jump on an anti-Israel bandwagon.

The Arab League Summit meeting in Amman, Jordan, will be held Tuesday, March 27.

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Israeli army moves to calm Mideast war fears

Next Mideast war in the offing?

U.S. forces continue deployments

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