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STRATFOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Europe agenda and Kyoto
There's more to Bush's trip than environment issue

Posted: June 14, 2001
1:00 am Eastern

© 2009 WorldNetDaily.com

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From the moment President Bush arrived in Spain, his first official visit to Europe has served as a platform for European complaints about his policies on the environment.

In particular, Bush has been criticized by everyone from government leaders to street demonstrators for pulling the United States out of the Kyoto Protocol on March 28.

Two dozen environmental activists chained themselves together to block a side exit of a military airfield near Brussels, Belgium, when Bush arrived June 13, the Associated Press reported. Protesters near the airport also chained themselves to traffic lights. Some held a banner that read, ''George W. Bush: Wanted for crimes against the planet.''

The timing of the Kyoto issue – coinciding with a U.S.-EU split over missile defense – adds some very visible strain to the trans-Atlantic relationship in the short-term. With Europe – leaders and populace alike – already angry with Bush for his developing NMD policy, his dumping of the Protocol guarantees that his meeting today with EU leaders will produce nothing of substance.

But the American president has little reason to be worried about Europe's current anger leading to a long-term breach in relations. While Kyoto may be a hot-button issue in Europe it is not the only issue. Relations with Russia, energy issues and NMD will continue to be of higher priority. After all not one EU member-state has yet ratified the Kyoto Protocol.

Meanwhile, what most critics do not realize is the Kyoto Protocol was dead long before Bush was elected. As with all treaties, presidential signatures are not binding. The treaty must first be ratified by the legislatures of participating countries, and the U.S. Senate is not likely do so.

Crafted at a summit of 163 countries on Dec. 11, 1997, the Kyoto Protocol calls on the developed states of Asia, Europe and North America to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases – such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – to about 5 percent below their 1990 output by 2010. Former U.S. President Bill Clinton was among the leaders who signed the agreement, although he called for several changes before it was to be implemented.

But on July 25, 1997, more than 15 months before Clinton signed the agreement, the U.S. Senate, by a vote of 95-to-0, approved a resolution to reject any climate-change treaty that did not also require developing countries to reduce their emissions. While Senate resolutions are not binding, the unanimity illustrates overwhelming bipartisan opposition to the Kyoto Protocol.

In effect, the leaders who hammered out the agreement knew months before approving it that there was no chance the world's biggest polluter would ratify it. Bush maintains this stance today, calling Kyoto "fatally flawed" because it excludes the developing world and would cost the U.S. economy billions.

Before departing for Europe, Bush said complying with the agreement's mandates would lead to layoffs and consumer price hikes in the United States. He also called the protocol unrealistic, saying its emissions targets are arbitrary and not based on science, AFP reported.

Bush in particular has singled out China, the world's second-biggest polluter. China, because of its status as a developing nation, would not have to implement the treaty at all, while the United States would be forced to pay billions to reach emission targets.

Bush prefers market-friendly methods, in lieu of mandatory targets, for reducing greenhouse emissions. His new energy policy allocates $10 billion for research into more environmentally friendly technologies and $4.2 billion in tax credits for consumers who purchase fuel-efficient cars.

But this will not placate Bush's audience in Europe.

"The average American uses at least 30 percent more energy than the average European, yet our living standards are comparable," said a German official quoted in The Washington Post. "The scientific proof is clear about global warming, and there can be no excuse not to take urgent steps to control America's gas-guzzling habits."

On June 13 Bush traveled to Sweden, perhaps the most environmentally friendly, and most pro-Kyoto Protocol, country in the European Union, to meet with Prime Minister Goran Persson.

"We regret that President Bush continues to reject the Kyoto Protocol," Environment Minister Kjell Larsson of Sweden said in a statement. "We cannot accept this."

Sweden also holds the Union's rotating presidency, thus making the meetings even more uncomfortable. Persson will be representing not only pro-environment Stockholm but also Berlin, London, Madrid, Paris and Rome.

Persson asserts the Union's 15 member-states will ratify and implement the Kyoto Protocol regardless of what the United States does, placing the onus squarely on Bush. But the agreement's unpopularity in the United States and the fact that the United States produces one-fifth of all greenhouse gas emissions would make such European pronouncements fruitless – and Bush knows it.


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