Signs of strength
in Russia's navy

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Early this month, the Russian navy began sea trials of a new, third-generation Akula II-class nuclear-powered attack submarine, the Gepard, in the White Sea. The Gepard is to be delivered for service in the Northern Fleet in July. Moscow has also deployed a Delta III nuclear ballistic-missile submarine in the Pacific Ocean from the port of Petropavlovsk on the Kamchatka Peninsula – the first such deployment in months. Both vessels surprised Western intelligence.

In global terms, Russia is signaling renewed will to emerge once again as an important naval power. Much of this stems directly from the decisions of the government of President Vladimir Putin. For years, successive Russian governments have left the navy to rot in port, with new ship construction running years behind schedule. Now, the government is directing scant resources into construction and finds shipbuilding boosted by orders from abroad.

The attack submarine Gepard represents a fundamental surprise. The vessel was estimated to be five years behind schedule and was believed to be part of a vast body of evidence that Russia's fleet is in a poor state. The Gepard, however, represents an important qualitative, as well as quantitative, departure from recent shipbuilding trends.

In some respects, the new attack sub is believed to be superior to the U.S. Navy's Los Angeles-class attack subs. Capable of moving as fast and as quietly, the Gepard can dive deeper than the American vessels and has more firepower than its counterparts, according to Russian media reports and independent naval experts.

Under Putin, Russia's government has moved to boost investments in military projects, with a significant portion going to the navy. Moscow is placing greater emphasis on nuclear ballistic-missile submarines as perhaps its most important strategic deterrent. Russia bumped up its military budget for 2001 by 50 percent to $7.9 billion, and the provisional budget for 2002 includes another 20 percent increase to $9.5 billion. With coasts on both of the world's largest oceans, Russia has an abiding strategic interest in securing the seas and influencing global maritime operations.

These figures still lag considerably behind those of the United States, but espionage may be helping the Russian navy gain advanced capabilities quickly and on the cheap.

In the wake of former FBI agent Robert Hanssen's arrest, the U.S. Navy is investigating whether Russian espionage efforts could have compromised U.S. submarine secrets. The Russian navy apparently has garnered significant technology that will enable it to make future submarines quieter and harder to detect. This technology probably has come from Russian espionage that has penetrated the U.S. submarine program, according to intelligence sources.

Currently, the U.S. Navy is trying to figure out the extent to which its submarine program was penetrated and whether Hanssen was involved, according to those sources. Intelligence sources say the U.S. government is investigating how badly the American program was compromised. It appears the investigation inside the U.S. Navy is fairly recent, but it may focus on possible pilfering of quieting technologies that make it difficult for adversaries to detect American submarines.

Whether or not Hanssen himself compromised these secrets is unclear. But because he worked in the national security division of the FBI, he would have had access to a wide range of secrets. And his arrest last spring likely triggered new concerns inside the U.S. military.

Ironically, evidence that Russia has penetrated the U.S. submarine program can be found in a small report by a U.S. government agency. Radio Free Europe broadcast a report last week saying Russia was stealing U.S. submarine technology. The report was attributed to anonymous U.S. officials and appears to have been an attempt to downplay Russian technical prowess.

The super-quiet Akula II-class of nuclear-powered attack submarine is believed to have benefited from technologies stolen from the United States and Japan's Toshiba Corp. The Akula II-class has been built at the Northern Engineering Works in Severodvinsk. And the Russian government has maintained that this class of submarines, which first emerged in 1996, is the result of homegrown Russian ingenuity.

Russia is developing new naval technologies for the first time in many years. In addition to the new attack sub, Russia has developed a new supersonic anti-ship cruise missile, the Yakhont, which can be launched from surface ships, submarines and coastal mobile platforms, according to Rusoboronexport, Russia's arms export agency. The Yakhont has a range of 300 kilometers and can travel twice the speed of sound, surpassing most if not all other types around the world.

Additionally, an infusion of much-needed dollars into Russia's shipbuilding industry is occurring with an increase in foreign orders. For example, on March 5 the Baltic Plant Shipyard in St. Petersburg, one of Russia's largest, laid the keel for the first of three 4,000-ton frigates for the Indian navy, which is also awaiting delivery of an aircraft carrier, according to the Interfax News Agency.

China is becoming another regular customer for submarines and surface ships. Russia's arms export agency also reports it is now offering advanced Amur-class diesel submarines for export. At the same time, some shipbuilding companies are making new investments of their own in research and development, eyeing additional foreign sales from Algeria to Greece to Vietnam, according to Russian media reports.

Meanwhile, Russia is putting the finishing touches on a new naval doctrine. This is aimed at eliminating supply and logistics problems and introducing more regular training, as well as preserving the structures of the Northern, Pacific, Baltic and Black Sea Fleets and the Caspian Sea flotilla.

Approved late last year by Putin, the roadmap calls for building new flagships over the next five years – with serial production to be completed by 2010 – as well as a total rearmament by 2020. Russian navy commander-in-chief Vladimir Kuroyedov recently told reporters in St. Petersburg that "Russia is making a step toward realization that it is a naval power," according to ITAR-TASS.

A re-emergence of the Russian navy would have widespread implications, fueling the naval arms race already underway in Asia between China, South Korea, Japan and others. This would represent a fundamental upswing in Russian global influence.

For now, the state of the Russian navy remains dismal: Only 40 percent to 60 percent of personnel are able to fulfill their assignments due to aging and to often inoperable ships and equipment. But the Putin government is gambling that with enough money and technology it can rebuild Russian sea power. The cost of failure, however, will be high: If Russia's navy fails, it will dwindle to fewer than 60 ships in a little more than decade.

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