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STRATFOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATE Who will run Iraq after Saddam? U.S. unlikely to attack until suitable replacement identified Posted: February 14, 2002 5:00 pm Eastern © 2009 WorldNetDaily.com
Editor's note: In partnership with Stratfor, the global intelligence company, WorldNetDaily publishes daily updates on international affairs provided by the respected private research and analysis firm. Look for fresh updates each afternoon, Monday through Friday. In addition, WorldNetDaily invites you to consider STRATFOR membership, entitling you to a wealth of international intelligence reports usually available only to top executives, scholars, academic institutions and press agencies.
The United States needs to plan a military campaign and subdue international opposition to such a move. Meanwhile, the largest question remains unsolved: Who could run Iraq after Saddam Hussein? U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney is scheduled to visit the Middle East in March in what is seen as a prelude to potential U.S. military action against Saddam Hussein's regime. President George W. Bush recently explained Cheney's visit – which will include stops in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey and Kuwait, all of which border Iraq – by saying, "There's nothing like looking somebody in the eye and letting them know that when we say we're going to fight terror, we mean it," according to the Guardian. Despite the fiery rhetoric of the president's State of the Union address, there does not yet seem to be a clear consensus on how the United States should act against Iraq. Options range from a CIA-sponsored coup to a conventional military campaign similar to Desert Storm. But as complicated as this question is, a tougher question remains: Who will run Iraq after Saddam Hussein? The United States is unlikely to attack Iraq until it believes it has identified a suitable replacement regime. More than anything else, finding such a regime is the biggest hurdle keeping Washington from launching strikes. It should be noted that removing Saddam from power would entail a shift in regimes, not simply a transfer of power. Arresting Saddam for war crimes – assuming he left the country – or assassinating him would not bring about much change, since Saddam has spent more than five years grooming his son Qusay as his successor. Although Qusay, 35, keeps a lower profile than his reputedly psychotic elder brother Uday, he is no less ruthless. Qusay has almost total operational control over Iraq's armed forces, including the elite Republican Guard and the special security agency in charge of protecting the president. Since 1995, Qusay has led efforts to conceal Iraq's programs for developing missiles and weapons of mass destruction, according to the U.S. State Department. Last summer, he took on his first official role when he was elected to the Baath party's highest authority, its 18-member regional command.
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