Church attack aimed at U.S.

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A man hurling hand grenades burst into a Protestant church in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, March 17, killing five people, including an American who worked for the U.S. Embassy and her daughter, and wounding more than 40. Few details about the attacker have emerged, and no militant groups have claimed responsibility for the incident.

There is a strong possibility that the assault was the work of one of a number of radical Islamist groups operating in the country, some of which have connections with al-Qaida. If so, the attack is likely part of a larger campaign designed to provoke a U.S. response and turn Pakistani public opinion against the government in Islamabad.

It appears that the attacker was specifically targeting Americans rather than Christians. There are several Christian churches in Islamabad with much less security, and the church that was hit was frequented by expatriates and diplomats, Agence France-Presse reported. This is the second incidence of violence directed against U.S. citizens in Pakistan in recent months, but this attack appears to be significantly more complex than the kidnapping of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl in January.

The attacker was well-armed – common enough in Pakistan – and was able to penetrate Islamabad's heavily guarded diplomatic quarter by either evading Pakistani security forces or by working with them. Infiltrating one of the most secure areas in Pakistan as an armed combatant is significantly more difficult than luring an investigative journalist into a dangerous neighborhood and turning a gun on him.

Attacking Americans is a tactical shift for the radical Islamist forces in Pakistan, who spent several months after Sept. 11 trying to incite a popular revolution against the government, which has thus far provided vital cooperation to Washington's anti-terror campaign. But the hard-line message didn't resonate among most ordinary Pakistanis, and government security forces quickly arrested the few who took to the street in celebration.

Pakistan's Islamists are still trying to find a way to drive a wedge between the people and the government. By attacking Americans, the fundamentalists are likely hoping to convince Washington that the Pakistani government is incapable of both protecting U.S. citizens and reining in Islamic militants.

Such attacks will continue, and Washington will be tempted to respond by sending its own personnel into Pakistan. This could include increasing the FBI presence to assist with the bombing investigation, deploying U.S. Marines to guard the perimeter of the diplomatic quarter or having U.S. Special Operations troops conduct 'snatch-and-grab' missions against potential militants.

In the extreme, Washington could decide that the government in Islamabad is incapable of controlling the country, and may order pre-emptive strikes against Pakistani nuclear facilities to keep them from falling into fundamentalist hands.

In any case, the greater the U.S. reaction, the greater the divide hard-liners hope to create between Pakistan's people and their government.

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