On Sunday, one of the "experts" in the endless parade of experts on cable news stated the obvious: "I am unaware of any special significance of the date Sept. 11." His implication was that there is no reason to anticipate a terror attack on July 4 because bin Laden didn't use date significance as a basis for selecting 9-11. Although he was technically accurate, he was pretty far from correct.

Bin Laden is trying to raise the entire Muslim world to Jihad. Creating the mystique of the Chosen is central to his goal, and symbolism is the greatest weapon in his arsenal (thus far). Consider what he said (twice) in his post-Sept. 11 video: "… after 80 years, the sword has come to America …" He was clearly referring to the resolution passed by the U.S. Congress endorsing the partition of Palestine (creation of a Zionist homeland) on Sept. 11, 1922.

Experts on American news networks continually warn us that al-Qaida may be encoding secret messages to sleeper cells in their videos and communiqu?s, but bin Laden speaks openly, relying on us not knowing even our own history, let alone Islamic history. Which brings us to July 4. We, in our narcissism, assume that July 4 is all about us. But to Muslims it is a day of ultimate triumph.

On July 4, 1197, Saladin (Salah al-Din) completely annihilated the 20,000-man Crusader army at the battle of the Horns of Hattin, driving the "Christians" from the Holy Land until the 20th century. And we can be sure it is not lost on bin Laden that Saladin won this battle in spite of the fact that the Crusaders carried with them the "True Cross" (the True Cross was a relic designated by Constantine's mother during the initial phase of the paganization of Christianity).

Consequently, July 4 is a very likely candidate for a terrorist strike, albeit only if the Islamists feel they have the means to achieve a final victory over the U.S.

The first question is, do they? Recently, al-Qaida spokesman Abu Ghaith promised to kill 4,000,000 of us, referring to America as "Hubal." Hubal was the last and the largest of the 364 pagan gods in the Kaaba to be toppled by Muhammad (al-ilah, the predecessor to Allah, was left standing). The image of Hubal was so large that Ali (Muhammad's son and the first Imam) had to stand on the Prophet's shoulders to push it over.

The second question is, clearly, is bin Laden ready to stand on the Prophet's shoulders now? That really should be a role of the 12th Imam (Al Mahdi – the long-awaited Muslim chosen one who will convert the whole world by the sword). Maybe bin Laden has been hanging around a guy in really old clothes for a reason: Mullah Omar wears the Cloak of Muhammad (which he stole from a museum in Kandahar). We all know neither clothes nor symbols make the man, but in an eschatologically-based war, image and deeds together can be larger than life. Remember, most of Europe capitulated before Tiger tanks bearing swastikas and the mere idea of blitzkrieg.

It is reported that Bin Laden writes poetry in the style of Saladin. For bin Laden, defeating the Crusader army and knocking over Hubal on July 4 would be the stuff of which epic poems are made.

Mark Robinson is a scientist and author.