Hezbollah getting anxious?

WASHINGTON – The tone of broadcasts from Hezbollah's Al-Manar television network has turned increasingly unsettled over the last few days, with members of the Lebanese terror group appearing to prepare the audience for military setbacks, according to a report released yesterday by an Arabic communications expert.

"The mood of the broadcasts has been growing marginally darker for three to four days … and there was a more dramatic change starting Tuesday night," said Michael Widlanski, an Arabic-language translator and analyst, and a professor at the Rothberg International School of Hebrew University.

Widlanski, who has been monitoring Al-Manar, writes in a report that Hezbollah's television network, which recently had been boasting of military successes against Israel, has begun taking a less celebratory tone.

"Land is not the most important factor, but rather the spirit of the people," announced an Al-Manar commentator identified as Amin Akhtai earlier this week.

The new broadcasts coincided with reports Hezbollah has lost control of its strategic southern base at Bint Jbail – an area described by the Israeli military as a "Hezbollah capital" – and has suffered dozens of fighters killed or captured, some of them high-ranking, although the terror group also killed eight Israeli troops in an ambush.

Akhtai told Hezbollah's television audience he is not concerned about the loss of Hezbollah territory because "perhaps the remaining terrain is better suited for defense."

Uncharacteristically for Al-Manar, Akhtai prefaced his comments with a eulogy to "those heroes who have become martyrs in the defense of Lebanon."

Wildanski's report termed the new tone "a stark departure for Hezbollah, which has until now admitted to almost no battlefield deaths or injuries."

Hezbollah asking for help

Wildanski's notes Al-Manar has been petitioning Arab countries for help.

States the report: "Another sign of definite internal Hezbollah weakness and even panic was the growing tendency [the past few days] of Hezbollah commentators and talk show hosts to place blame on Arab governments for not coming to the aid of Hezbollah. 'Where are the Arabs?' one TV host asked an Egyptian military expert."

On Tuesday, after Hezbollah's standard political commentaries, the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah appeared on television, and there were several noticeable discrepancies from his usual appearances, notes Widlanski.

According to the media analyst, Nasrallah seemed tired and slightly preoccupied. His presentation was not confident and almost fumbling, said Widlanski, and he was reading from a prepared text instead of delivering his usual extemporaneous remarks.

"The content of his speech is also important," said Widlanski. "Nasrallah essentially wanted help from surrounding Arab countries. In other words, he prepared a written request for help ahead of time so that he could read it aloud on TV.

"It doesn't radiate an impression of strength. When you combine that with the admission that Hezbollah 'didn't expect' a substantial Israeli response to [Hezbollah's] rocket attacks and kidnappings, you have an indication that Nasrallah's position has been weakened, and it's happened a lot faster than he was apparently expecting."

Tone likely to shift with fortunes

Widlanski said much of Hezbollah's daily scripted content has not changed and is unlikely to change in the near future.

"What's important for judging Hezbollah's morale," according to Widlanski, "is the tone that's emanating from unscripted interviews and their other live broadcasts."

He said the tone can be expected to fluctuate with the changing fortunes of battle.

"Hezbollah's daily pre-recorded material – (such as) the music videos and jihad videos – can be taped weeks in advance and that stuff is not going to change quickly," Widlanski said. "But the hosts who go on live TV have knowledge of the battlefield situation and they have emotions, and they will often reflect Hezbollah's internal attitude."

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Aaron Sichel is a writer for WND's Jerusalem bureau