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The leaders of several prominent pro-life and social-conservative organizations, joined by some of their allies in Congress, are warning President Bush that he risks demoralizing many of his core supporters if he flip-flops on his previously stated opposition to federal funding for stem-cell research that involves killing human embryos.

As late as May 18, Bush sent a letter to the Culture of Life Foundation, saying, "I oppose federal funding for stem-cell research that involves destroying living human embryos."

Since then, however, Bush has indicated that he is deliberating whether to change his position.

"This is an emotional issue that goes right to the heart of the pro-life movement," Rep. Lee Terry, R-Neb., told Human Events. "If the president changes his position on embryonic stem-cell research one inch, he moves the bar and forces those of us who strongly believe that life begins with conception to have to make bigger arguments. A change by the president on this critical issue would demoralize us as a movement."

Family Research Council President Ken Connor said: "Any abdication by President Bush of his campaign pledge to oppose embryonic research will fracture his pro-life base, which was essential to his election in the first place. It will absolutely inhibit his ability to marshal the critical mass that he will need from his base in order to be re-elected."

Eagle Forum President Phyllis Schlafly agreed.

"We expect Bush to maintain current law against stem-cell research," she told Human Events. "To do otherwise will severely damage his credibility, as well as the pro-life cause."

Gary Bauer, who ran against President Bush for the Republican nomination last year and who now serves as president of American Values, said: "No one would have asked in the elder Bush's administration if a reversal of his 'Read My Lips' pledge would have severely hurt him with economic conservatives. Likewise, social conservatives must be serious about our values. If such a complete reversal on a fundamental issue does not damage him with cultural conservative supporters, one would have to conclude that no serious social conservatism exists."

Would a Bush turnabout on stem-cell research actually lead social conservatives to abandon the President in 2004 and vote for a Democrat or third-party candidate out of spite? "No," said Michael Schwartz of Concerned Women for America. "It's not that we would vote for the other guy; it's just that we would have a very hard time getting our circles to work for Bush in the next election."

Schwartz, a longtime congressional aide, said, "Bush's staff has already turned this stem-cell issue into high-stakes political poker by waiting and suggesting he might be reconsidering his position. It makes me very uneasy to see him in doubt."

In a full-page advertisement that ran in the Washington Times on July 31, the American Life League went so far as to warn the president that he would be a one-termer if he broke his campaign pledge to oppose federal funding for research that destroys human embryos.

"Now Bush appears ready to cave in," said the advertisement. "If he does, even the threat of Hillary Clinton won't reactivate his political base to re-elect him in 2004."

Rep. Walter Jones, R-N.C., noting that Bush had won the highest percentage of Roman Catholic voters since Ronald Reagan in 1984, said he "was very concerned that if Bush ever changed his position, he would hurt himself with Catholic voters. His strong showing among Catholics was due, at least in part, to his positions on issues such as this. It would hurt him with the conservative base, and most notably Republican Catholics, if his position on embryonic stem-cell research ever changed."

If the President were to change his position, said Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz., it would "get him in some deep trouble" in 2004.

"Conservatives are watching this issue with great interest and concern," said Focus on the Family President James C. Dobson. "I believe President Bush will make an enormous mistake if he reverses himself on the preservation of embryonic life. It is our prayer that he will honor his campaign pledge and protect human life from conception to the grave."

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