The United States Department of Agriculture says that food suppliers, including farmers and ranchers, are vulnerable to the Y2K millennium bug, and need to fix any problems within their businesses now to avoid a catastrophe beginning Jan. 1, 2000.
“Every organization’s systems are composed of various layers of hardware and software that can be compromised by the Y2K problem,” says the USDA. “There is no single solution, so preparing for Y2K readiness requires a flexible and immediate plan of action.”
Trudy Kareus, coordinator of the Food Supply Working Group at USDA, said that many larger food companies are well on their way to fixing the problem, but it isn’t just the food sector that determines whether or not food is distributed to consumers. How compliant the energy, utilities and transportation sectors are to Y2K needs to be considered as well in the flow of food products.
“We’ve considered all sectors,” said Kareus. “And the big and mid size businesses are OK.” Kareus did state, however, that all sectors that are important to the delivery of food have to work completely for things to go smoothly.
A report, according to Kareus, is currently being put together which states that food shortages that will cause major castatrophes are highly unlikely. The report, which should be made available to the public sometime next week, was put together by the Gartner Group, a leading private research authority on information technology.
In the report, the group created a scenario in which there was no food at the beginning of 2000. Working backwards to find the source of the food shortage problem, the group concluded that the cause of the shortages were very improbable.
“You shouldn’t be too confident, though,” said Kareus. “You should always ask, ‘What if?'”
Kareus said that if shelves in food stores are empty at the turn of the millennium, it will probably be because of a self-induced panic. “If there’s going to be shortages, it will be because people are clearing shelves, not because of Y2K,” she said.
Kareus suggested that if people do want to prepare for Y2K, they should prepare by slowly storing essential items ahead of time. That way, a last-minute rush on markets and ensuing panic can be avoided.
Y2K is the result of what has now become a computer programming error. In the early days of computers, when the saving of memory space was of the utmost importance, programmers designed computers to store year dates using only two digits; instead of 1998, the computers read the year as “98.”
Now at the turn of the millennium, many computers won’t know if, on New Year’s Day, the world will be welcoming in the year 1900, or 2000.
Because of Y2K, the USDA has quite a challenge ahead of them. The USDA’s Year 2000 Program Office mission statement states that its goal is to face the challenge head on by ensuring that “USDA’s mission-critical systems nationwide are Year 2000 compliant by March 31, 1999.”
The mission statement also says that the USDA plans to give guidance and leadership for all of the department and agencies that they are in charge of on all aspects of USDA Year 2000 program activities. One of these agencies that the USDA is providing leadership for is the Food Supply Working Group (FSWG).
The goal of the FSWG, created by the President’s Council on Year 2000 Conversion, is to raise awareness about the Y2K problem among those who have a part in maintaining an uninterrupted food supply. Because the USDA believes that farmers, ranchers, and other food suppliers are not immune from the Y2K problem, the FSWG, with guidance from the USDA, have developed a six step plan http://www.usda.gov/aphis/FSWG/y2kplan.html to ensure that food continues to flow from producer to consumer as smooth as possible, when the Year 2000 is upon us. These six steps are awareness, inventory, assessment, solutions, testing, and contingency planning.
The Six Steps
The first thing that the FSWG suggests that farmers, ranchers, and other food suppliers do is to make their employees, other suppliers, and service companies aware of the potential problems surrounding Y2K. The FSWG believes that this is very important in preventing potential problems with food distribution at the turn of the millennium.
Making an inventory of all automated systems is the second step that the FSWG encourages farmers, ranchers, and food suppliers to take. Depending on which part of the food distribution network your company is a part of, you will want to check to see if your irrigation systems, communications systems, automatic feeders, conveyors, accounting systems, or other computer systems have been affected by Y2K.
The FSWG reminds those involved with food distribution that some systems may fail before the turn of the millennium because some systems perform forecasting or future processing.
“This is called ‘time horizon to failure’, and should be considered during inventory and assessment,” said the FSWG.
After making an inventory of all automated systems, an assessment should be made of them. The FSWG says that the manufacturers of each system in your inventory should be contacted and asked if the system in question is Y2K compliant. “Ask for written confirmation through an official letter from the manufacturer if it is, and instructions on how to proceed if it isn’t,” said the FSWG.
Assessing different systems can also be done by running them as if it were already the year 2000. The FSWG warns, however, that resetting dates in sensitive automated systems can cause problems, and should be done only after the potential risks are fully understood.
If assessing equipment shows that some are not Y2K compliant or if the equipment’s manufacturer calls back and confirms this to be so, a solution must be thought of quickly. The FSWG suggests three — either upgrade the system, replace the system, or fix the system.
Once all systems that are not Y2K compliant are upgraded, replaced, or fixed, testing needs to be done. “Testing is a critical aspect of any year 2000 project,” said the FSWG.” Testing verifies that the repaired or replaced system operates properly when the date changes, and that existing business functions such as accounting, inventory control, and order tracking continue to operate as expected.”
The final step in preparing for Y2K is contingency planning. In a good contingency plan, the FSWG says the companies should have ways of backing up and protecting business data, ensuring continued production with minimum delay, ensuring continued cash and product flow, and making clear the responsibilities of key employees if and when a Y2K problem occurs.
“We do not know for sure what the millennium will bring,” said the FSWG, “but the prudent manager will start now to plan for all conceivable scenarios.”
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