“The first of April is the day we remember what we are the other 364
days of the year.”
— American humorist Mark Twain.
FALKLAND, BC — On Thursday, the world’s first real April Fool’s Day
could become a reality. Undoubtedly, the jokes will be flying, but it
will also mark the second signpost on the road to Y2K disasters.
In 16th-century France, the start of the New Year was observed on
April 1 and it was celebrated much the same way as it is today with
dancing and partying and playing tricks on both friends and strangers.
The butt of the jokes were called April Fools. In 1561, Pope Gregory
introduced a new calendar for the Christian world and the New Year fell
on January 1st.
According to Y2K experts, such as Loren Jacobs of Southfield, MI,
there are nine signposts, starting on Jan. 1, 1999 when infrastructure
providers and businesses started testing their systems. No major
problems have been reported, however, the real test comes Thursday.
That’s when Canada and New York State begin their fiscal year that
will, of course, include dates beyond Year 2000. As a result, planning
systems, especially budgets that haven’t been repaired will fail as they
attempt to process Y2K dates. With New York City being the world’s media
capital, such tabs as the New York Daily News, will be yelling: “Horror!
Disaster!”
“I expect the stock market to react and begin a downward spiral,”
explained Jacobs, adding, “and the number of Y2K optimists will continue
to dwindle.”
SIGNPOST #1: January 1, 1999.
SIGNPOST #2: April 1, 1999.
SIGNPOST #3: July 1, 1999 — The Canada and New York problems from
April Fool’s Day will continue to spread around the globe and,
particularly in 45 U.S. states that will mark their fiscal years. The
Y2K chaos will begin to start taking a grip.
“We will see the public begin to panic — particularly where there
has not been strong local leadership,” Jacobs said.
SIGNPOST #4: August 22, 1999. On this date, the Global Positioning
Satellite (GPS) technology will fail in receivers that are not upgraded
or replaced. The GPS system consists of 24 satellites that transmit
signals to earth, which are in turn picked up by electronic receivers to
determine a vehicle’s exact location and velocity. They are installed in
both military and civilian vehicles and devices, including fighters,
bombers, commercial and private airplanes, helicopters, trains, ships,
submarines, tanks, jeeps, missiles and other “smart” weapons, police
cars and ambulances and some newer-model cars.
SIGNPOST #5: September 9, 1999. That’s when many computers will come
face to face with the infamous “99” problem. For decades, programmers
designated the end of a file or the termination of a program by entering
a series of four nines in a row (i.e., “9999”) in a date field.
SIGNPOST #6: October 1, 1999. U.S. federal government begins its
fiscal year. Computer systems operated by the U.S. Defense,
Transportation, Treasury, and Medicare Departments, among others, will
begin malfunctioning. All the smoke and mirrors will be gone. The
government — and the administration — will be forced to admit the
truth. There will be no place to hide. The naked truth will be evident
to all. According to estimates by the U.S. House Subcommittee on
Government Information Management and Technology, 13 out of 24 key
federal government agencies will not make the deadline.
SIGNPOST #7: January 1, 2000. All non-compliant computer systems will
fail or generate corrupt data, propagating it across systems and
bringing down many computers that are compliant. The world will watch
with anticipation as the systems fail one time zone at a time.
“How big will it be?” Jacobs asked. “No one really knows. It depends
on how many systems are repaired between now and Jan. 1, 2000. Perhaps
more importantly, it also depends on what kind of contingency plans we
have in place in order to mitigate the damage.”
SIGNPOST #8: January 4, 2000. The first business day of the New Year
begins. Many businesses, utility companies, and government agencies will
not open — many will not be able to open. Many that do open will be
swamped with customer complaints. Chaos and pandemonium will reign.
SIGNPOST#9: February 29, 2000. Leap year has much more meaning on
this date. Most people assume that every fourth year is a leap year.
However, every fourth turn-of-the-century is a leap year, too. The year
1900 was not a leap year; the year 2000 is. Therefore, if the computer
doesn’t account for the fact that 2000 will, in fact, have a February
29, then all kinds of calculations will be off, including billing
cycles. Unfortunately, many programmers were unaware of this rule, and
their programs will stumble over this date, increasing the chaos.
Jacobs, who explained he doesn’t speculate about the future,
nevertheless, believes the Y2K problems are reason for pessimism in the
future with supplies becoming scarcer and prices hitting the ceiling.
He also believes there’ll be no last-minute silver bullet — a
magical solution.
“The mythology of the silver bullet is an appealing one,” emphasized
Jacobs, adding, “It is the main hope of those who believe that ‘this
problem will be fixed,’ but it is not realistic.
“There are 500 computer languages. Many of them are no longer
understood since the programmers are either retired or dead. Often
several languages are used in one application program. Those containing
multiple languages are even harder to fix. There is no one program to
fix it. Faith in the silver bullet can ruin families and organizations.
“They delay taking steps to deal with Y2K in faith that a silver
bullet will be discovered.”
Sources: Y2K Net sites, Loren Jacobs.
