China renews ties with N. Korea

In a move that could “redefine the political and military spectrum in
Northeast Asia,” the People’s Republic of China and the Democratic
People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) have renewed both military and
diplomatic contacts since China formerly recognized the South Korean
government in 1992.

According to a published report, the
“substantial improvements in Chinese-North Korean relations” has the
potential to further complicate U.S. efforts to stabilize mounting
tensions between China and Taiwan, as well as diplomatic efforts to
contain a belligerent North Korea.

While the report said, “it is unlikely that relations between Beijing
and Pyongyang have yet mended to the degree that North Korea would count
on Chinese support and risk a full-scale attack on (South Korea),”
analysts believe “a coordinated move by China and North Korea threatens
to split the reaction capabilities of the United States.”

Though China has long been a traditional ally of Pyongyang —
intervening on behalf of North Korea during the 1950-53 Korean War —
relations between the two countries had chilled over Beijing’s
recognition of South Korea. Military contacts, diplomatic initiatives
and, more importantly for Pyongyang, military cooperation had largely
dried up between the two nations.

But earlier this year North Korea began to intensify diplomatic
efforts aimed at both Russia and China, and these latest moves by
Beijing to reaffirm old ties with the Stalinist north are viewed as a
culmination of those efforts.

Roger Baker, an analyst on Asian affairs with Stratfor, agreed that the renewed ties appeared ominous
but tempered any predictions of serious and dire consequences in the
short term.

“This renewed effort was initiated by North Korea, not China,” Baker
said, adding that pragmatic China “is currently getting a lot of mileage
out of this relationship.” But he downplayed speculation that the move
signaled an imminent “all-out assault” against either South Korea or
Taiwan.

Furthermore, in the event China invades two pre-selected Taiwanese
islands, as Baker believes is likely, he doesn’t think the
U.S. will help defend them or, at best, retake them from Chinese forces.

“I’m not sure the Taiwan Relations Act would commit the U.S. to
helping Taiwan launch a counterstrike against Chinese forces if they
occupied certain Taiwanese islands,” Baker said. “But if China decides
to take those islands, there isn’t much Taiwan can do to defend them.”

The U.S. currently has two aircraft carrier battle groups in the
South China Sea monitoring increased tensions between China and Taiwan.
The battle groups have also been tasked with monitoring any sign that
North Korea is preparing to conduct new missile tests.

Regarding U.S. presence in and around the Taiwan Strait, Baker said
any joint military effort — coordinated or not — by both North Korea
and China would “split the focus and attention of the U.S.” He added
that he didn’t believe America was ready or willing to fight an all-out
war with either China or North Korea “at this point.”

Meanwhile, Taiwan has indicated to U.S. officials a desire to be
included in any regional missile defense plan, a move that has further
angered the mainland.

James P. Rubin, a spokesman for the State Department, did not deny to
the press recently that the Taipei government has made such a request,
and he left open the possibility that the U.S. is considering it.

“We have a process by which we’ve discussed this with them in the
past,” Rubin said on Wednesday. “We would expect to continue to discuss
this with them in the future, through normal military channels.”

U.S. officials continue to worry that North Korea is preparing to
conduct another test of its newest ICBM, the Taepo-Dong II, which some
military experts believe has a three-stage capability, can be
nuclear-armed, and can hit parts of the western U.S.

Bill Gertz, defense correspondent for The Washington Times, reported
Aug. 17 that because of the likelihood of another North Korean missile
launch, U.S. military officials requested deployment of the new Theater
High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile radar in Japan. Air Force
officials said the impending launch would be “an ideal real world test”
of the THAAD system, and would allow soldiers who will eventually
operate the system to receive valuable training against a live threat.
But in a move that stunned some military officials, Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Hugh Shelton turned down the request because
he felt the THAAD deployment would be cost prohibitive.

Gertz said that, according to his sources, the real reason Gen.
Shelton turned down the request was because of pressure from the White
House, which reportedly opposed the deployment because it might
jeopardize ongoing arms control negotiations with Russia.

Baker said if China and North Korea carry out any simultaneous action
it would likely be “in the interest of gaining some concessions and
political mileage” from western nations. North Korea is noted for its
successful military brinkmanship against the Clinton administration, and
China, Baker believes, cannot back down from its threat against Taipei
for domestic political reasons.

“The Beijing regime cannot afford to look weak,” he told
WorldNetDaily. “There are too many factions within the country that
might take advantage of any perceived weakness.”

“Any joint move by China and North Korea could amplify the political
effectiveness of both countries,” he said. “But there are risks too.
Neither really knows what a U.S. response would be or if, in the long
run, their gamble will pay off.”