Exploratory diplomacy is under way between the leaders of China,
Indonesia, India -- and possibly Russia -- in an effort to form a
military and economic alliance designed to rein in U.S. hegemony in
eastern Asia.
The U.S.-based economic intelligence and forecasting corporation
Stratfor reported this week that if such
an alliance were formalized, "over half the world's population and a
considerable amount of the world's resources" would be under the control
of a Eurasian group established specifically to oppose most U.S. foreign
policy initiatives.
"Although separated by history, culture and ideology, all share
mutual apprehension over U.S. hegemony and have made diplomatic
movements toward each other," Stratfor reported on Thursday. "At the
same time, Russia has improved relations with India and China,"
prompting "questions about the possibility of a new, bipolar world."
Stratfor said that after a recent meeting with representatives from
the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, Indonesian
presidential candidate Abdurrahman Wahid commented that "he looked
forward to a possible new alliance among India, China and Indonesia."
"Wahid reportedly said such an alliance would help rectify the
'lopsided' power of the West," said the report, which indicated Wahid
had "plans to visit the People's Republic of China" soon.
Western Asia-watchers have dismissed Wahid's comments as
"pre-election posturing," Stratfor reported, but there are indications
such a concept is neither farfetched nor unlikely.
"The Far Eastern Economic Review reported that the cancellation of
the Australia-Indonesia military cooperation treaty led Jakarta to
consider Beijing as a source for weapons and spare parts," Stratfor
said. Also, "An aide to Indonesian President B.J. Habibie ... indicated
these moves stem from a desire to counter Indonesia's reliance on the
West."
"Although the Indonesian military still maintains links with the
United States, it may be tempted to ally with a nation, like China, that
doesn't interfere in internal affairs," said the Stratfor report.
Signs that Sino-Indian relations are improving somewhat began with
the recent conflict in Kashmir. Instead of supporting Pakistan as it
traditionally has, China instead chose to remain officially neutral,
thereby winning considerable favor with diplomats and leaders in New
Delhi. Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh commented June 18 on
China's "serious approach" to resolving the conflict, saying that the
two countries would extend bilateral cooperation and hold a security
dialogue. A month later, Singh said, "Some of the past misunderstandings
with China are now behind us," and he added, "India does not see China
as a threat and China does not see India as a threat."
"The most obvious point of agreement among India, China and Indonesia
is apprehension over U.S. power," said the report. The three countries
have expressed mutual concern over the U.S.-led NATO intervention in
Yugoslavia, and Beijing "went so far as to call for the establishment of
a 'just' new international order."
While India, China and Indonesia have been strengthening ties,
Stratfor said, Russia has been simultaneously improving relations with
India and China, with the three already having agreed to combat
cross-border terrorism in Central Asia.
Additionally, "Russia agreed Oct. 13 to upgrade India's air force
with enhanced MiG-21 and SU-30 fighter planes," the report said. And
Russian President Boris Yeltsin and his Chinese counterpart, Jiang
Zemin, met once already in August, agreeing on the necessity of a
multi-polar world and to meet again before the new year.
However, since the military coup in Pakistan
this week, Stratfor said, China also may be seeking to use the
opportunity to inject more influence there as well. Beijing's influence
had waned in the period following the election of Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif, who was seen as loyal to the U.S. But since his ouster by the
military a few days ago, China is now in "a stronger position in
Pakistan and the region than the United States."
Though an attempt to court both Pakistan and India may, on the
surface, appear to be doomed to fail, Stratfor's East Asia expert Roger
Baker believes Beijing is just being pragmatic.
"For China, it is beneficial to become more relaxed in their
relationship with India in addition to Pakistan," he told
WorldNetDaily. "Depending on the upcoming Pakistani leadership ... I
think that Pakistan values China and doesn't want to lose them, even if
they are moving" formally closer to India.
"Pakistan isn't necessarily opposed to India," he said. "It's the
whole issue of Kashmir that stands substantially in between them." And,
Baker said, it's possible that with renewed diplomatic efforts, China
could someday become the arbiter between Pakistan and India in finding a
Kashmir solution.
"It's not that China is looking to form an instant alliance" with
India, Pakistan or Indonesia, he stressed. However, in the eventuality
that a formal alliance between Russia, China, India and other countries
is created, Baker said it would "certainly represent a grave threat" to
U.S. interests. "They certainly have been talking" about the prospect,
he added.
"For an alliance to form among India, China and Indonesia," the
Stratfor report said, "the countries would need to overcome some
significant historic differences. Relations between China and India have
been stormy, as China has traditionally backed neighboring Pakistan.
Chinese-Indian tensions erupted into a brief war in 1962, resulting in
the current Chinese occupation of Indian territory."
China and Russia are closer to formalizing an alliance, as evidenced
in a series of "mutual cooperation agreements" designed to share
economic and military benefits. For example, the American Foreign
Policy Council reported in June that "Russian
military sources (said) that China intended to keep buying the latest
Russian equipment, including military aviation and radar, submarines,
ships and cruise missiles." And, AFPC reported, "Western military
experts say Russia and China are involved in cooperation and research
projects over the next five years, estimated to be worth between five
and six billion dollars."
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