Recent launch failures in the flagging Russian space program may be
prompting Moscow to strengthen ties with China in an effort to form a
cooperative space program — not just for mutual commercial development,
but for strategic military reasons as well.
The latest launch failures came in late October. A Russian rocket
carrying a communications satellite blew up shortly after take-off from
the Baikonur launch pad in Kazakstan, while another launch failure
caused enough concern within the Kazakstan government to suspend
indefinitely Moscow’s remaining 1999 schedule, which included additional
planned launches in November and December. Both incidents reportedly
were caused by a Russian-designed Proton rocket malfunction.
A spokesman for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
(NASA) confirmed to WorldNetDaily the Sino-Russian “cooperative space
effort,” which reportedly will cover the areas of applied space
research, long-term programs for piloted (manned space mission)
research, and fundamental research and elements connected with the
creation of spacecraft. A separate report said Moscow penned a
similar cooperative space agreement with India on Dec. 21,
1998.
Russia also announced Oct. 18 that it would help oversee Beijing’s
first manned space flight, scheduled for early next year. That
announcement followed another on Oct. 27 that both countries would
“cooperate on scientific projects,” ostensibly including space projects
as well.
However, experts disagree over the implications of the new alliance.
Some see it as a pragmatic, purely commercial venture while others say
there is a real possibility of a new space-based military threat to the
U.S. Still others are concerned that technology used in the
International Space Station (ISS), in which Russia is a participant,
could eventually find its way to Beijing.
Greg May, assistant director for the Nixon Center, a non-partisan national security think tank
in Washington, D.C., told WorldNetDaily Russia had sold Soyuz-type space
capsules to China and that the two countries were “toying” with the
notion of a manned space flight. He also acknowledged Western concerns
that such an alliance could pose a strategic risk to the U.S. and
Western nations.
“It doesn’t really accomplish much and it’s a lot of money,” he
said, adding “some (Chinese) leaders view it more as a stunt than
anything else.”
Nevertheless, a BBC Online report
said the Chinese government “is preparing furiously for its first manned
space mission” and is intent “on landings on the Moon and Mars.”
More important than manned space missions, though, May said there are
larger concerns in the U.S. that the recent Sino-Russian space
agreements would include the development of technology to defeat U.S.
satellites in orbit. “It would be very naïve” to assume China was not
actively developing an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon system, said May,
“especially since they know their embassy in Belgrade was destroyed with
a weapon that was guided by a U.S. satellite.”
But, he cautioned, “it’s important not to simply take what China says
it wants to do and extrapolate that into some sort of capability.
There’s a tendency in the West to do that.”
Phillip Clark, an expert on Chinese and Russian space programs for
Jane’s Intelligence Review, based in
Hastings, England, told WorldNetDaily that he believes China is serious
about manned space launches, but he downplayed the strategic threat.
“I believe the alliance is mostly a commercial effort,” he said.
“The Russians especially see a joint space launch venture with China
appealing, especially now that their economy is in trouble.”
Regarding ASAT technology, Clark said that the Russians already had
conducted anti-satellite testing from the late 1960s until around 1985,
until a treaty prohibiting further testing was signed between Moscow and
the U.S. He said he didn’t know if China signed the agreement.
“Those tests generally were perceived by Western intelligence sources
to have been about 50 percent successful,” he said, adding, “There have
been some reports about Chinese testing of anti-satellite capabilities,”
but the “pedigree” of those reports “is in question.”
One such report — the Cox Committee Report on Chinese Espionage
— names
Russia as “a major supplier of space launch technology to the People’s
Republic of China (PRC),” but also emphasizes Beijing’s quest for
dominant space weaponry.
The report quoted PLA Navy Senior Col. Shen Zhongchang as saying: “By
the next century, as high-tech space technology develops, the deployment
of space-based weapons systems will be bound to make ‘mastery of space’
and ‘mastery of outer space’ prerequisites for naval victory.”
The Cox Committee said, “… The PRC is embarked on a modernization
plan for its ballistic missile and space forces. This expansion includes
the exploitation of space-based military reconnaissance and
communications satellites and space-based weapons.”
The committee said China was already a “major space power,” whose
capabilities include “a family of rockets, numerous satellites, and a
telemetry, tracking, and control network.” Russia and China are already
cooperating on the development of space- and ground-based lasers that
are specifically designed to knock out U.S. satellites in orbit, the
report said.
“Based on the significant level of PRC-Russian cooperation on weapons
development, it is possible that the PRC will be able to use nuclear
reactors to pump lasers with pulse energies high enough to destroy
satellites. In addition, Russian cooperation could help the PRC to
develop an advanced radar system using lasers to track and image
satellites,” according to the report.
“The Select Committee judges that the PRC has the technical
capability to develop direct ascent anti-satellite weapons,” said the
Cox report. “The CSS-2 could be modified for use in this role. This
would be similar to the approach taken by the Soviets with their SS-9
ASAT (anti-satellite) system.”
Ironically, as early as May 1996, then-Secretary of Defense William
J. Perry told reporters he believed Russia “may be” in violation of the
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) if Moscow approved transfers of
anything other than “basic” ICBM technology to China — the exact same
technology used to launch rockets carrying satellites and space weapons
platforms into space.
“We believe that would be a significant mistake to transfer the …
technology to China and have so represented our position to the Russian
… government,” he said. “With the exception of making boosters
available for space launching — and even then under tight control —
other transfers of ICBM technology would be in our view a violation of
the START agreement and of the missile technology control regime.”
Clark added that he believed the Chinese might already have tested a
space-based weapons launch platform, but that the PRC was not “actively”
pursuing more testing “at the present.”
Despite Kamala’s lies, the ‘are you better off’ question remains
Larry Elder